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All Forum Posts by: Luc M.

Luc M. has started 7 posts and replied 35 times.

Post: Dealing with Fannie Mae?

Luc M.Posted
  • Connecticut
  • Posts 41
  • Votes 3

J. Scott - none WERE owned by the goverment. FNMA is now 79.36% owned by the Government. Me and you still supporting a bunch of bad loans!

Post: Gold and Silver - next bubble(s)?

Luc M.Posted
  • Connecticut
  • Posts 41
  • Votes 3

Yep...my third post. I joined this site a couple weeks ago because I am thinking about going into the RE biz and this seems to be an excellent RE site with lots of helpful posters/information. Still deciding if I want to be a landlord or a hard money lender. Will go to my first local RE investment club meeting next month to get more insight.

Like Anthony, I too am in finance so this topic struck a cord. George, just go to the CBO website I posted and go to the historical government budget figures and you should be able to figure out why Gold has enjoyed such a run lately. Of course, after the credit crisis of 2008, more people focused on gold. I believe the rise in Gold prices is all about the lack of confidence of our government's situation. Our government is hoping to inflate our way out of this debt mess, but that doesn't seem to be happening. Gold is a protection against this inflation. I am not advocating buying gold and have less than 5% of my net worth in it (wish I had more). I would just say this, if you were to contemplate investing in gold, have a VERY long time horizon for it. Comparing 10 year histories of gold versus stocks is foolish I believe. According to my Bloomberg, since 1927, Gold has appreciated at a CAGR of 5.30% while the S&P generated a CAGR of 5.33%, WITHOUT dividends. Of course, there are all sorts of problems with the S&P returns, such as survivorship bias, etc.

Post: Gold and Silver - next bubble(s)?

Luc M.Posted
  • Connecticut
  • Posts 41
  • Votes 3

"Unless you're not talking about US, you gonna have to sell your bullions first, (pay taxes) and only then buy real estate with the proceeds. Last time I checked gold wasn't the form of payment."

I agree. But until they stop my ability to convert gold into paper currency, then I can effectively buy a house with gold.

BTW, the government is now as levered as a typical real estate investor. As of the end of 2010, there was $9T of federal debt held by the public (and close to another $2T held by the Fed), and the government's revenue was $2.16T. Sadly, federal revenue was around $2T in 2000 and federal debt was only $3.4T. Hopefully, interest rates don't spike too soon. Imagine if rates doubled or trippled? Ouch!

www.cbo.gov/budget/budget.cfm Scroll down on the right for historical numbers.

Post: Gold and Silver - next bubble(s)?

Luc M.Posted
  • Connecticut
  • Posts 41
  • Votes 3

I can't buy a house with gold? That is news to me!

Post: Gold and Silver - next bubble(s)?

Luc M.Posted
  • Connecticut
  • Posts 41
  • Votes 3

Add in corporate, household and municipal debt and you get a chart that looks like this:

http://prudentinvestor.blogspot.com/2010/02/chart-of-day-us-debt-vs-gdp-in-2009.html

How would you not worry about our situation? Sure.....go on and spend 2x more than you generate and see how long you can pull that off? Remember, growth financed by debt isn't REAL growth.