Long post but wanted to get you all caught up.
Getting up the courage to make an offer. Here are some of the changes I've made to my numbers in the past 10 days partially based on this thread and a lot of reading:
1. Property tax: increased by 20% to account for the county possibly increasing that based on the sale
2. Capex budget: Broke down individual large ticket items such as roofs, water heater, appliances, asphalt repairs, flooring, heaters, etc. by the effective and remaining life to create a capex budget. The buildings are old so that number turned out to be quite large (almost $1400 per month) and really affects cash flow and cap so not sure that's the best way to think about it. I then figured I'd give some credit to the probability of increasing rents to sort of offset that, thinking that its not quite fair to budget for future capex spend without also assuming some rent increase in that same future time period (some of the units already have had their rents increased so I believe such rent increases are plausible). Any thoughts on that?
3. Compared property mgmt companies and came up with 8% average
4. Quoted insurance and it's more than 3x what the seller tells me he pays so not sure what's going on there and I need to double check the quote.
5. Down payment: little less than 10%
6. Total cash: budgeted for closing costs, inspection and initial repairs needed.
OK, At my projected offer price (which is $250k below asking) I'm happy with all the numbers:
CAP: 7.4%
Cash Flow: $850 per month
CoC return: 16%
DSCR: 1.23
I think I've covered off most everything but if you guys see anything odd let me know.
The biggest issue IMHO is the offer price being so much below the asking. I'm going to write up an LOI but not sure when I'll have the guts to send it to the owner.
Cheers.