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All Forum Posts by: Kurt S.

Kurt S. has started 7 posts and replied 20 times.

Post: When real estate values fall, what asset type goes up?

Kurt S.Posted
  • Investor
  • Chicago, IL
  • Posts 20
  • Votes 15

Hard to make a real general case. However, in this market, stocks are selling 20+% off their highs. Depending on your investing horizon this may be attractive right now to hold for the long-term. In inflationary environments like we're in, typically commodities are not a bad bet. I bought some I Bonds in March that are basically a bet on inflation going up. 

Post: How to enforce a 'no smoking' policy in Chicago

Kurt S.Posted
  • Investor
  • Chicago, IL
  • Posts 20
  • Votes 15

Hi. I am a live-in landlord to a 2-unit here. I suspect my tenant is smoking cigarettes in the unit below. It is a high end rental, and I planned to move in eventually, so I cannot tolerate this.

I added a 'no smoking in unit' clause to our lease, which they signed. The other day I was in their unit for an unrelated reason and the basement clearly smelled like cigarette smoke. I asked his partner if they were smoking, and she (verbally) admitted they were smoking marijuana in there, but denied cigarettes. I have never seen them outside smoking cigarettes. One time I smelled an old ash tray emptied into our garbage, but again they don't smoke outside. So where else would they be smoking but inside?

I'm absent any 'hard' evidence of them smoking, but I am almost certain they are. How should I proceed? They have 5 months left on the lease. I don't really want to wait that long if they are smoking. I would prefer them to leave early. Do I have grounds to terminate? They already admitted to smoking MJ, but it's really the cigarettes I don't want. But I don't have them admitting to that in writing or recording. How would you proceed in this situation?

Post: Tenant unemployed but didn’t tell me yet

Kurt S.Posted
  • Investor
  • Chicago, IL
  • Posts 20
  • Votes 15

Hi,

I am living in a duplex as the landlord with tenants (a couple) living in the unit below.

The mailman mistakenly delivered a letter from my tenant to me today. Sadly it is from the office of unemployment.

I live in a tenant-friendly city. I thought they were obligated to tell me in writing.

Am I legally allowed to confront them about the situation? It’s not clear it will be any immediate threat to their ability to pay rent. His girlfriend had the better credit of the two to begin with. However I am obviously worried, as my bills depend on their ability to pay as well. Any advice?

 

Post: Anchor bolts on detached garage

Kurt S.Posted
  • Investor
  • Chicago, IL
  • Posts 20
  • Votes 15

Thanks everyone for the advice. One of my friends was alerting me to this. Sounds like they were overthinking this. 

I will be in Chicago for the long haul as an investor. Look for to getting to know you all and other people working in real estate. 

Post: Anchor bolts on detached garage

Kurt S.Posted
  • Investor
  • Chicago, IL
  • Posts 20
  • Votes 15

Hi all. Moving to Chicago next month and I am under contract for a 2-flat in Chicago.

The garage is detached and is not properly secured with anchor bolts. My questions are:

Is this a code violation? I was told conflicting things and cannot find information online.

If it were your property would you ask the sellers to address this or would you fix it yourselves?

Do most garages in Chicago have anchor bolts?

Thanks in advance for perspective. I look forward to joining the Chicago Real Estate community in another month.

Post: Multifamily and Machine Learning

Kurt S.Posted
  • Investor
  • Chicago, IL
  • Posts 20
  • Votes 15

Steve, based on your above comment I can't tell if you are in favor of ML or not. There is no doubt real estate pricing is quantifiable. Just comes down to having the right data and the right inputs.

There is little doubt in my mind a sophisticated model like a neural network with the right inputs would crush Zillow's price estimate. 

The key is engineering the right features from the data so that you are capturing / quantifying meaningful signal. For example, if I were designing such a model and had all the data available to me, I would include distance to a highway as a feature, school quality, or even creative variables like the count of liquor stores in close proximity, income of zip code, average age of neighbors (to know whether they're adults and poor or maybe just students)... These are all important indicators of neighborhood character or quality that probability get factored into the final sale price (consciously or not). 

The thing about ML is that it's just mathematical modeling that uses a fairly simple optimization technique. It's only as good as the inputs you provide it, so the trick to winning with ML is to think outside the box to produce quality data signals and to have lots of data records (the more the better).

Post: Multifamily and Machine Learning

Kurt S.Posted
  • Investor
  • Chicago, IL
  • Posts 20
  • Votes 15

Hey all. Just wanted to introduce myself on this thread. My name is Kurt. I earned a PhD in 2017 and now work in machine learning full time. I am passionate about real estate and also trying to figure out a profitable way to use our skills in this market. If you want to chat about some ideas sometime, feel free to message me! 

Post: How would you invest $1 million?

Kurt S.Posted
  • Investor
  • Chicago, IL
  • Posts 20
  • Votes 15

I'd buy a few 4-plexes, let the equity build, and eventually 1031-exchange into more cash-flowing units. I'd outsource the stressful parts to a property manager and just sit back and enjoy the passive income. I would spend my freed-up time seeking out better investments.

Post: How would you invest $1 million?

Kurt S.Posted
  • Investor
  • Chicago, IL
  • Posts 20
  • Votes 15

I'd buy a few 4-plexes, let the equity build, and eventually 1031-exchange into more cash-flowing units. I'd outsource the stressful parts to a property manager and just sit back and enjoy the passive income. I would spend my freed-up time seeking out better investments.

Post: How Many RE Investors are Engineers?

Kurt S.Posted
  • Investor
  • Chicago, IL
  • Posts 20
  • Votes 15

I work in machine learning and data science. I like numbers and finding value. In a machine learning algorithm, I'm minimizing a cost function. With real estate, I am maximizing COCROI (subject to not exceeding a threshold of headaches haha). Both career paths also offer financial stability (an external reward) while tapping into pragmatic, mathematical instincts (an internal reward). I would not be surprised that many RE investors are also engineers.