All Forum Posts by: Kevin Uzelac

@Dan M. you made a lot of great points. End of the day the supply needs to increase and rates need to rise a bit. Thanks for providing some deeper insight on this. 

With today’s housing market conditions, the question comes up frequently whether or not we are in bubble. There are several indicators and comparable metrics that show that the market should continue to stay strong.

Loan originations are being made to those with high credit scores and sizable down payments which was the opposite of the subprime crisis. During quarantine there were people going through financial troubles. Although, there was also a large quantity of people that had nothing to do with their money but save it. No travel, dining or moving homes. This allowed people to save and wait out the pandemic for the right opportunity to buy.

The decrease in interest rates is another obvious indicator that has incentivized people to borrow. This has increased the demand for homes but the supply hasn’t been able to keep up. Many homeowners didn’t want to have strangers walking through their home with the risk of covid contamination. Also, the last housing bust caused homebuilders to slow down construction and it still hasn’t picked up to where it was in 2006.

One last indicator pointing to a healthy market is the average consumers financial picture. Falling rates, stimulus payments and some apprehension from the last crash has created stronger balance sheets. Debt service as a percent of disposable income has fallen from 13% in 2007 to around 9% in 2020-21. There is also a large increase in home equity in comparison to 2007. I’d love to hear what other people have to say about today’s booming market. There are several indicators I didn’t cover but the ones I did are easily comparable to the previous housing bubble.

The facts in this post came from an article on fortune.com: https://fortune.com/2021/04/16/are-we-in-a-housing-bubble-covid-real-estate-prices/ 

@Yuriy Skripnichenko it's nice to see demand and prices are still strong. Thanks for providing the data. 

Hey @Andrew Bowden welcome to BP! I work in the city but from the burbs. Doylestown area is where I live. Would love to connect and see what kind of investments you're looking for. 

@Aman Shahi Philadelphia is one of the hottest metro markets in the country right now. Tons of opportunity ranging from small SFH fix and flips up to the occasional 11 unit MFH. Buffalo and Washington D.C. are also pretty hot right now.

@Shakia Sistrunk it is pretty competitive right now in the wholesaling game in Philadelphia. You have to compete with some really big national wholesalers that move a lot of property. These wholesalers are fully licensed agents and brokers that have a lot of credibility behind them. The one I work through moves 40-50 deals a month right now and has been in this market for years. I wouldn't say it's impossible though as long as you make the right connections and don't give up. Best of luck. 

We all know that COVID-19 has had some extreme affects on the mortgage industry. The low interest rates and high demand has caused prices to sky rocket in most markets. 

Although, there are a significant amount of people that are struggling to find a way out of financial hardships the pandemic has created. According to DS news, roughly 2.1 million homeowners are at risk of foreclosure. This is a little scary as we know what kind of effect mass foreclosure can have on the industry. I don't believe we will see something like the 2008 housing crisis, but foreclosure should be avoided at all costs so home prices are not negatively impacted. 

If borrowers are unable to make payments and extensions around forbearance and foreclosure protections are lifted, home seller programs are a good place to look. They create a lot resources to the borrower and the servicer so that homes can be sold before they reach foreclosure.

Currently, the forbearance and foreclosure protections for federally guaranteed mortgages has been extended through June 30, 2021 so time is limited. Struggling homeowners should be proactive with their lender to see what options they have before default. I wish the best for anyone who has been hit hard by the pandemic. Let's work together to dig ourselves out of the this hole. 

@Rich O'Neill do you and your team work with investors in Philadelphia? I work with a lot of investors in Philly, delco and montco who are looking for a reliable contractor. 

@Paul Dante Pronio just sent you a DM, look forward to connecting. 

@Sean Ezeamama just sent you a DM, hope to connect soon.