At 86% your talking about 4% left without including carrying costs. Your seller costs are 8-10% so after removing those your doing a deal to make 4%? Its so easy to go over budget by 4% that you can easily lose money on 86% ARV. So I guess Im arguing with that one sort of.
The only way Id ever go as high as even 80% as if it failed it would still cash flow with debt to it as a rental.
The 70% rule is a very good way to analyze any flip deal because its based on percentages. It is however a rule of thumb and you should clearly go into more depth but if its way above that then its not worth looking at.
What it actually does is gives you 10 percent for seller closing costs 10 percent for holding costs points and fluff and 10 percent for profit not 20 percent for profit. That last 10 percent gets dwindled down quite a bit. You can adjust those a little but going under 8 percent for closing costs is not a good idea. If your the realtor you might consider it but thats just trading investing for working. You might as well just focus on listing other peoples properties if your going to substitute prophet for labor.
The same goes for using your own money. You really should be counting your holding costs as if you are using all other peoples money at the normal rate you would get. I hear this all the time from other investors in my area. When I say I often use hard money they might say something like"I use my own so I can pay more" I shake my head and see someone who is trying to work themselves to financial freedom. Im not saying you shouldn't use your money in a business that you believe in but to not account for it in your numbers as if it was loaned to you is the same as doing the work yourself but not paying for the labor. Working for free. With money you can just loan it out and get those returns without doing the flip so why wouldn't you account for your idle money.
Heres an example of what I mean. I just lost about 5000 to 6000 because of Idle money. In this situation I "verbally" agreed to buy from a wholesaler in Washington. (Yes Verbal so I know where I went wrong) We agreed on the phone late at night I said Ill take it and would meet to sign whatever worked best for him. I was going to have a hard time later the next day so I said if needed I can tonight or possible early in the morning , he claimed would have a tough time early but it would be fine even if he had to wait. (Thought I was building a new relationship here) So how did I lose money you wonder.
I currently have quite a bit of idle money sitting around these days as the deals are fewer between so I recently invested some in another business I own. That being said I kept enough to pay all cash for at least one house and mix the rest with hard money for a couple more or simply use a mix to do several. As soon as We agreed to do the deal I emailed my hard money lender to do another deal Im closing on tomorrow. I did this instead of using my own money which when used on my own project would be earning me what the hard money lender would be charging. In this case I get charged 12% and 2 points. "Thats the money I lost." I would have paid all cash on the deal I am closing on (I could cancel the loan but I told the lender Id use them and I don't like to go back on it).
Now I still have idle money and am paying points and interest on a deal when I thought Id have more of the money in play and more deals. Now if I happen to get a good deal right away it helps to ease that loss but it is a little tougher right now so I was pretty bothered by it. There is more to the story but the point is to show that you should still value the money in a deal even if its yours.
This doesn't mean you shouldn't use your own money or do the work yourself but not accounting for what you would have paid in both situations is creating a job not an investment.