All Forum Posts by: Kenny Simpson

 @Billy Daniel, 100% agree, rates will fall and they already started too

 @J. Mitchell Bernier, LOL it is NOT about being right, it is understanding the data and what is going on in the overall market.  Rates will come down next year for sure, they just did off lower CPI numbers.  Stay tuned.  

 @Dan H. I was referring to long term mortgage rates NOT FED funds rate. I agree FED will continue to raise FED fund rates into Q1/Q2 2023 for sure and they just did another 75BPS as you know and the 10 year treasury dropped 50 BPS + quickly.  Long term rates already have a .75 BPS to 100 BPS increase in margin spread do to risk, that will come off the table soon and lower rates just based off that and that would put my 30 year fixed rate in the 5.25% to 5.5% ish range.  If the 10 year T drops more do to recession fears rates will drop lower.

Here is the chart, 10 year treasury vs 30 year fixed, they are usually 180 to 200 BPS apart and when near or during recession that number can go way up.  So if the 10 year T is at 3.7% today the 30 year fixed rate would be at 5.7% today if NOT lower just normal.

 @Henry Lazerow 100% agree, rates went to high to fast.  

 @J. Mitchell Bernier I think rates will fall faster than people think, I think when Jan 2023 hits we will see massive layoff's, FED pivot, BIG recession fears and the 10 year T will drop.  Lets see what happens :)

The FED is slowing pace on rate hikes, the consumer is slowing and the economy is headed into a recession? These are all guesses at this point and some believe this will happen or is happening. If the FED eases with less rate hikes, that is signaling they need to slow down because the rate hikes are working and inflation is coming down. We have had recent reports that inflation is slowing 9% + to 7.7% and that has already had an affect on long term rates. The 30 year fixed mortgage as I type this sits around 6.125%, conventional NO POINTs and VA 5.5% NO POINTs. Those rates just weeks ago were .5%+ higher.

Do you see VA/FHA rates in the 4's and conventional in the mid to low 5's is possible by Q2 of next year? If that is the case we are talking new buyers saving $800 + a month here in San Diego on entry level homes. Home prices lower, rates lower, seems like the perfect storm for first time home buyer or to pick up your first investment property?

Hello Bigger Pocket Family,

I am excited to be LIVE and apart of this community.  I look forward to helping, growing, teaching, learning and growing with everyone.  Please see below a little bit about me and look forward to connecting soon :).

I am mortgage broker with C2 Financial and have been in the business for 19 years. I have funded over $1Billion in loans and have had the opportunity to help 1000's of clients along the way. If you are a first time home buyer, in the military using your VA loan, self employed with income challenges or an experienced real estate investor my team and I are the best. We pride ourselves on educating our clients on loan options, rates, terms, cost and we work very hard to deliver the best rates and service. What makes us great is the experience we bring to the table and also being a very active real estate investor myself and my background in real estate only benefits our clients.

My wife has been a commercial mortgage broker for 19 years as well and has funded over $1.5 Billion in loans as well. Together we are a 1 stop shop and a rarity due to our experience in the real estate business. We used to manage 1475 units in San Diego ( sold that business in 2018) , turned over 2000 units, rehabbed 500 + units, rehabbed inside and out over 20 + larger building and have done $100 Million in personal real estate deals ourselves. We have helped many clients build portfolios in San Diego, build wealth and generate cash flow. Now we just focus on our 2 girls, mortgage business, our growing pod cast "get in the cash flow game with K&K, delivering educational content daily to clients and our community, buying a building a year with our own money in San Diego, personally own 45 + unit with a net cash flow of $300K.  We are also partners in 300 + units as well.

I am here to help, educate, give back and answer any questions. If you need to purchase or refinance a property please don't hesitate to reach out anytime.

All 1 to 4 unit Active listings, including condo when you look at the data from the last 10 years are down 60% from the norm.  In San Diego active listings in a normal market are about 10 to 12K, currently today we are about 5K and that will drop off when the slower winter months approach.  When you top that with higher interest rates, less buyer demand and sellers have to sell for a reason this is creating opportunity for buyers.  We are seeing our buyers pay $100K less plus seller credits on on $1MM properties.  We ran the scenario that even with higher rates and paying a $100K + less your payment is very close and with a refinance in the future you will be winning.

What are you guys seeing out there with sellers and buyers?