All Forum Posts by: Ken M.

Over the past few years, I’ve been vocal about the rise of inexperienced fix-and-flippers jumping into real estate with little more than YouTube tutorials and optimism.

Now? The cracks are showing.

In just the past week alone, I’ve seen loan pools totaling over $200 million in defaults cross my desk. These aren’t isolated deals—they’re systemic. And the brokers I’ve spoken to are saying it’s just the beginning. We also have heard rumbling KIavi is moving out of Florida (Ironically more than 50% of these loans are in Florida with heavy concentration in Tampa /  Port Charlotte area)

Most of these loans are tied to rehab projects that were either under-budgeted, mismanaged, or never should've been funded in the first place. Rising rates, labor shortages, and inflated ARV projections have pushed a lot of these deals underwater.

It begs the question:

Is real estate finally going back to being a complex business again?

For the past few years, it felt like anyone could throw money at a deal and come out ahead. Now, it’s becoming clear that experience, underwriting, and risk management matter again.

If you're a lender—have you started tightening your standards? Or seen others doing the same?

Would love to hear what others are seeing out there.

I have yet to jump in to Real Estate Properties... I'm a true victim of paralysis by analysis... But your comment about loans being available to first time buyers (i.e. someone like me) evaporating is concerning. That would kill a major source of entry newbie investors like myself.

How do I know if a wall is load-bearing or not

That is one interpretation of it. There are a hundred others.

I called them garbage numbers for a reason. They don't tell you the reduction amount. I don't care that 30% of listings had a price reduction if that reduction averages <1%. I care very much if the reductions averaged >10%.

There is no backstory to the numbers. Schoolyear started and that's always a slow time for San Antonio. Winter season always slows down Denver sales. The largest employer in Tucson just announced they're moving all their jobs overseas. A new home development with 800 new homes in Jacksonville just hit the market and reduced their listed priced. They all affect the market, but some are normal and others not. 

What are the average numbers for these areas? San Antonio reduction was 25%. How do we know what is normal? Perhaps the average is a 30% reduction before sale in that area. Maybe that area is on fire and homes are selling with less reductions? 

I'm not suspicious, it's just that so many people have not learned how to critically analyze information. They go for the easy "answer". They never ask questions. The death of journalism has turned the brains of most people soft. They see your numbers are think the market is crashing, but that may have no basis in reality. Or maybe it does, but with just those numbers, there is no telling anything.

Hey @Ken M., 

Great question!

When a market sees price reductions, it usually signals a cooling or rebalancing of supply and demand. Here's what that might mean depending on your goals:

For Buyers:
Opportunity!
Price reductions often mean sellers are more motivated. You may be able to negotiate better deals, concessions, or terms. This could be a great time to buy, especially if you're investing for cash flow and not just appreciation.

For Sellers:
Time to be strategic.
You’ll need to price appropriately, make your property stand out, and possibly offer incentives. Overpricing right now can lead to extended days on market. But if your property is in good condition and cash flows well, there’s still a strong investor pool out there.

For Holders:
Hold tight (especially if you're cash flowing).
If you're in a solid equity or cash flow position, this isn't necessarily a time to panic. It’s a chance to evaluate your portfolio, consider improvements, or look for refinancing opportunities.

Markets cycle. The key is to play the long game and adjust your strategy, not your goals. And if you're looking for help navigating investing in today’s shifting landscape, our team at Rent to Retirement helps investors all over the country find cash-flowing properties—even in cooling markets.

Let me know if you'd like any market-specific analysis!

Wishing you much success,

Melissa Justice 

Investment Strategist at Rent to Retirement

It means absolutely nothing. It's one piece of data out of a massive mountain of data. 

When I see things like this, I assume the author wanted to influence me in a certain way or came up with a conclusion and is working their way backwards into a story.

Alone, these are garbage numbers.

@James Hamling I offer my phone number because talking on the phone often avoids these kinds of misunderstandings. I'm not click baiting or fishing for anything. I knew a post like this would open up dialogue of great questions and answers and discussion for others to learn from. 

it unfortunately has turned into a couple of guys who feel they are "right" rather than offering your opinion on whether you would buy that deal or not. I never asked to get into why you would use another strategy. 

sorry you feel the way you do but if you can't have cordial dialogue about real estate questions and discussion, maybe just don't leave comments. 

Ok thanks. I also saw there was due on sale insurance that would take over if the mortgage it is called back. Do you know if that would work? If it does even after they recall hopefully you can retain the property and it would just hurt your cashflow a couple hundred bucks a month until you either sell it or rents appreciate. I'm still learning and trying to figure out the best strategy for me while putting low money down.

I'm a rookie investor looking to get my first property and am very interested in the subject to strategy. I am in contact with a title company who pretty much said I probably can't do it in new jersey and the due on sale clause would be triggered either from switching the insurance to my name or when paying taxes. I've heard online that even if it is triggered you could transfer the ownership back to the seller and do lease options indefinitely until the property is paid off. Does anyone in New jersey have experience with subject to that could give me some guidance?