I have a lot of residential market data for California and recently put this together, quite shocking!
Developer #1 & #2 are competitors who both buy projects at a 20% estimated return level. They do the same fix & flip projects, produce the same quality, in the same 6-7 month timeframe.
Their key difference: Developer #1 buys in Q4-Q1 (October to March), Developer #2 buys in Q2-Q3 (April to September).
Who do you want to be, Developer #1 or #2?
![](https://bpimg.biggerpockets.com/no_overlay/uploads/uploaded_images/1701563347-image.png?twic=v1/output=image/quality=55/contain=800x800)
Of course Developer #1, it's all based on the market's $/sf appreciation, which is quite cyclical in the Los Angeles area:
![](https://bpimg.biggerpockets.com/no_overlay/uploads/uploaded_images/1701563519-image.png?twic=v1/output=image/quality=55/contain=800x800)
Developer #2 yields under 1/2 of what #1 yielded, simply due to when he decided to buy his properties:
![](https://bpimg.biggerpockets.com/no_overlay/uploads/uploaded_images/1701563543-image.png?twic=v1/output=image/quality=55/contain=800x800)
I'll leave you with a few more Los Angeles-area overlays where you will see the same thing (the above are all for Sherman Oaks 91401):
![](https://bpimg.biggerpockets.com/no_overlay/uploads/uploaded_images/1701564147-image.png?twic=v1/output=image/quality=55/contain=800x800)
![](https://bpimg.biggerpockets.com/no_overlay/uploads/uploaded_images/1701564170-image.png?twic=v1/output=image/quality=55/contain=800x800)
![](https://bpimg.biggerpockets.com/no_overlay/uploads/uploaded_images/1701564188-image.png?twic=v1/output=image/quality=55/contain=800x800)
![](https://bpimg.biggerpockets.com/no_overlay/uploads/uploaded_images/1701564200-image.png?twic=v1/output=image/quality=55/contain=800x800)
![](https://bpimg.biggerpockets.com/no_overlay/uploads/uploaded_images/1701564211-image.png?twic=v1/output=image/quality=55/contain=800x800)
![](https://bpimg.biggerpockets.com/no_overlay/uploads/uploaded_images/1701564225-image.png?twic=v1/output=image/quality=55/contain=800x800)
Don't forget the last leg of the data is not fully-representative, they fill-up as transactions occur. So the market is not crashing, I made this in early October so there were barely any Q4 closes:
![](https://bpimg.biggerpockets.com/no_overlay/uploads/uploaded_images/1701564333-image.png?twic=v1/output=image/quality=55/contain=800x800)
Do you think this applies to your market? Do you already buy during this time?
In the San Fernando Valley & West-LA, it looks like if you were Developer #1 you could have just bought the fixers in Q4-Q1, done nothing, put them on the market Q3 (listing-only MLS service or something), and make at least ~10% every time with no work done (more than enough to cover the carry). After how many years of this pattern would you bet on it?