Originally posted by @Blake F.:
Justin,
Are all of your turnkeys in Chicago section 8 tenants? If so I have a hard time believing that those properties are in B neighborhoods. (I grew up in Chicago.)
If they are all section 8, and C or lower areas, then appreciation is pretty flat to non-existent right?
Blake... Chicago has the second largest HUD housing program behind New York City. There are many variations of HUD programs including Section 8 (disability, veterans, etc). Yes most of buildings are Section 8 or County Voucher tenants. I live in Glenview IL and our village is about to start accepting Section 8 vouchers. The median price of homes in Glenview is $500,000 ($150k average income) and has one of the best school systems in the country. I buy townhomes, condos, and SFR's in this market and i'm about to lease to CHA tenants in this city. Glenview is considered by all standards an A location. So the myth that all Section 8 housing is in C or lower areas is simply not true. There are substantial zip codes in just cook county that are considered A locations that offer Section 8 or County vouchers and even more B zip codes. So the answer is i buy A, B, and C location properties and put HUD tenants in the buildings with guaranteed rental income that generate high CAP rates (see example below). Yes our property taxes are higher here but the income is also very high compared to the rest of the country.
As far as appreciation the A & B locations do have awesome appreciation potential however i don't bank on that. I rely the net operating income as the sole basis for my investments and use the rental income to pay down my debt service which creates a nice cushion when i sell the house. Let me give you an example of a south suburb property with a county voucher using all cash to not complicate the ROI's using leverage.
South Holland, IL Ranch SFR 4 bed 2 bath 2 car garage 1,800 SQFT
Purchase Price From Stabilization Trust: $55,000 (distressed)
Rehab Costs: $45,000 (result is over improved rental highly sought after in this market)
Overhead: $10,000 (i have $1.5MM in overhead for salaried employees / business operating expenses so i charge $10k to each house i buy)
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Total Cost: $110,000
County Voucher: $1,900 per month (HUD's zip code pricing matrix pays $2125 gross for 4 bed voucher tenant minus utilities $150 per month (tenant pays) minus tenant qualification variations is around $1,900 per month voucher
$1,900 x 12 = $22,800 gross income
-$1,824 Property Management Fee (8%)
-$900 Sewer / Trash / Misc (tenant pays water, electric, gas, landscaping)
-$4,500 Property Taxes
-$1,000 Property Insurance
-$1,140 (5%) Vacancy
-$1,358 (6%) Maintenance
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-$10,732 Total Expenses
$22,800 Gross - $10,732 Operating Expenses = $12,068 Positive Cash Flow
$12,068 divided by $110,000 cost = 10.90% CAP Rate
My positive cash flow each month is $1,000 after 11% reserves (now remember i have HUD guaranteed income and most of my tenants stay 3+ years and the house is freshly rehabbed so my CAP rate for the first three years is really $12,068 + $1,832 as i don't spend my reserves on vacancy and maintenance which equals $13,900 NOI divided by $110,000 = 12.63% CAP rate.
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I sell these houses in my business for $150,000 on average so let's assume i keep the building for 5 years before i sell it to calculate the total profit.
$150,000 sales price (no appreciation on today's price)
-$10,000 closing costs / fees
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$140,000 Seller Proceeds
-$110,000 cost basis
-$5,000 upgrades / repairs after tenant leaves to sell to local home owner highly upgraded (remember 5 years earlier i did a major rehab so not much to do on this upgrade)
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$25,000 Net profit + $13,900 NOI x 3 years + $12,068 NOI x 2 years = $90,836 Total Profit in 5 years
$90,836 divided by $110,000 investment = 82.67% ROI divided by 5 years = 16.53% IRR (with leverage my returns are sky high). These numbers factor in $0.00 for appreciation in this market. This is money in the bank each year and if a recession hits i have almost no impact in my portfolio as i will just keep the building until the values adjust to my target sales price ($150k in this example). If the housing prices go up i just make more money on my investment.
While i'm on this topic i will post to another comment in this forum about turnkey operators keeping their inventory. The answer is they should and I do. To manage hundreds of properties for hundreds of investors we need both business models to protect and manage the global portfolio. I buy every house with the intention of keeping it as my own investment property. I sell turnkey many of my houses to bring in substantial cash flow to keep a large staff of professionals to manage both my personal portfolio and all of my clients portfolios. Turnkey operators provide a niche which is a diversification of risk over a large portfolio which protects profits far better than an individual owner with 1 to 5 rental units. I can give you one specific example is windows for houses. I buy windows in such high volume that my pricing is less than half what the average person buys windows for even with a contractor discount and my windows are custom built to size. When a window breaks or needs replacement my owners don't want to pay $300 for a window. Now multiply this over one hundred similar categories both labor and material and you will understand the true value of a turnkey operator. Should investors do it on their own in their backyards without turnkey operators? Absolutely if you can afford the time and money on your own you should do it. It's a lot of fun and can be very rewarding. For those of you that can't do it or don't have the time use turnkey operators or local professionals to do it for you. The biggest risk in this business is doing nothing meaning your biggest risk is buying nothing and making no money. Everything else is manageable once you make the jump. I had to make the same decision when i started and i can't imagine what my life would have been like if i didn't buy my first investment property!!!