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All Forum Posts by: Jack Ryan

Jack Ryan has started 2 posts and replied 30 times.

Post: Banks always seem to get it wrong

Jack RyanPosted
  • California
  • Posts 34
  • Votes 0
Originally posted by Matthew Gil:
Banks are WAY to tight now. To the point that they are being compared to 1990's Japan.

Banks MUST stop hording their deposits and start lending again. Otherwise, we are going to have a 15 year economic slowdown (see Japan).


Can't do it. We're Japan 1990 deflation scenario (Nikkei down 80% to date) except our consumers don't have the savings.

Bernanke / Paulson are not fools, they would have adapted Sweden 91 plan if all the banks were not completely INSOLVENT. Remember Merril sold their MBS holdings for $0.22 on the dollar, and that was when the getting was good.

Bank deposits are but a fraction of their exposure (because of leverage / fractional banking) - they are and will continue to hoarde money and hold on for dear life. There will be no recover short of:
1. US default on debt
2. Massive depreciation of USD
3. Renegotiation of Bretton Woods

I think 3-4 year time frame is a bit early, I would be looking for acquisitions in 2012.

Post: two houses sold

Jack RyanPosted
  • California
  • Posts 34
  • Votes 0
Originally posted by nationwidepi:
Just a question here, why would you want to sell in this buyer's market? Why not wait until the market recovers and your home has regained value and the market conditions favor a seller?


Get what you can when you can the market is not going to recover for years. Once the bond market displaces, interest rates are going through the roof, equity markets will crash, and LIBOR will be back to 500bps.

Speaking of CDs, my wife and I are actually FDIC maxxed out at Indymac and Countrywide, both yielding around 5.5% - we're enjoying the interest and don't really need the money in that big of a hurry if IMB goes into receivership and FDIC needs to cut a check.

But in terms of "big govt" IMB is small potatos - look at Freddie and Fannie. $12 tril guaranteed, if that blows up who wants to bet tax payers are going to be on the hook for about $750 bil or more?!

:P

Post: Need a rental house in CA!!!!

Jack RyanPosted
  • California
  • Posts 34
  • Votes 0

Why a house? Most of the guys coming to SF look for apartments. Where exactly? Even though the bay area looks small on a map there's a huge differentiation in areas.

Hi,

Does anyone have any experience purchasing a historic
landmark is a commercial investment?

I'm looking at this property here:

http://www.creforeclosures.com/Premier/4225Central.htm

Looks appealing (mix of res / commercial),
but are there any limitations with purchasing a historic landmark in california?

TIA!

Post: Has the housing market hit bottom?

Jack RyanPosted
  • California
  • Posts 34
  • Votes 0

LOL, more often than not CNN just regurgitates what some analysts are saying and lately those analysts have been wrong more often than not...

My personal opinion?

Market at a >TEMPORARY< bottom due to all the perceived bargains for the summer as a catalyst to pushing first time buyers out to buy. We might even bounce (dead-cat) small for a little bit.

The next BIG leg down starts in the fall where $135-140/barrel crude really starts taking it's toll and the wide-spread job losses start occuring coupled with possible reduction in mortgage purchases by the GSE's (freddie & fannie) and the fed bumping rates up a tad to support the weak dollar.

Post: Bank of America Requires 20% Down

Jack RyanPosted
  • California
  • Posts 34
  • Votes 0

I think the down is really a function of the debt service coverate ratio. Most bankers (regional banks in cali) I'm talking to tell me they don't want to touch anything under 1.20 - this actually often means more than 20% down for investment properties here in cali, but I think you can find some gems that have a better ratio.

That said, BofA traditionally has never been hungry for any kind of business, I rarely work with those guys when you have all the regional banks that really want to earn your business...

JR

The Indy Mac implosion was long in coming and I don't think anyone "called" it, those who knew knew it was coming. It was widely known among So Cal mortgage originators that the loans that Countrywide didn't want to do they often passed to IMB. IMB also made the mistake of taking the riskiest of tranches on their debt collateralizations (sp?). - heck I rode their stock down (shorting) from $14, but now I am long at $0.61 (losing a bit of money there ;))

Their deposits are down to $18 bil right now and shrinking. That said, I am still betting on a bailout of some form - the FED has just been so good at bailing everyone out. :)

Post: Hi from bay area, California

Jack RyanPosted
  • California
  • Posts 34
  • Votes 0

Hello all,

I just sold my retail business for a decent chunk of change and I'm looking to get into commercial real estate. Starting to take classes and networking with some broker friends of mine. Just wanted to say hi!

JR

Post: Business Credit

Jack RyanPosted
  • California
  • Posts 34
  • Votes 0

The FEIN is very easy to get, and probably the first thing you want to do. I just sold my company had two disputed accounts (one of them FEDEX claims). With an FEIN they essentially have no recourse, if you use your personal SSN they can possibly argue successfully in court that you have pass-through liability.