Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @Joshua VanName:
Quote from @Collin Hays:
Quote from @V.G Jason:
This need for perpetual growth will cause the crash.
Colin you say the recession is here, it's knocking. It's not here, it's coming if folks keep pushing the envelope. But if you look at other global macro trends you see other things forming quicker and I won't get into that, but that doesn't mean this isn't coming.
I'm very tempted for the first time ever to sit 100% cash and watch, I may do this as we enter first business week of June. Tap out of all short-term plays. I am not a market-timer, and a time in market person so just for folks calling that out that is with this considered. We are month 27 since the rise of rates, and month 11 of the expected peak of rates. I have still of a ton of investments that will ride the course, but that's because I can weather those storms.
I have thought seriously about investing heavily in long term Airbnb put options. I believe they’ve crested and will not be able to sustain their revenue growth. Both them and VRBO have about squeezed the turnip dry.
I have been investing in options for about 10 years now. Mostly long term puts against stocks I think are highly overvalued. I personally feel about 90% of the market is due for a major correction but I agree that these have a great chance of being at the forefront of that correction.
Not to hijack the thread. The entry point though is everything though, do you buy puts on the Nov24, Jan25, earlier/further?
Implied vol is high 30%s on both of these. That gives me enough traction to make a large wager. $220/$300 per $10k upside is very enticing. The Tesla put was wonderful, this won't be as great but I think this will be a very good one that Collin pointed out.
Markets are getting more sophisticated and truly pricing in a lot more premium on any angle you take. It pays to be a bear now, and it pays even more to be a bull. It's kind of weird.
If I am entering a short position for the first time, I usually buy my puts about a year out. I rarely do anything less than one year. I am a rather conservative investor. I look for companies whose sales are abysmal in comparison to their hyped share price.
The best bang for your buck is arguably 30-90 day trades and I would have made a ton more by having a shorter time frame, but I am happy with my gains and the risks required.
Apologies to the op for the hijack but I think this relates to his belief that at some point the house of cards will collapse. Property owners will eventually need to band together and fight back as VRBOs main goal is to increase the wealth of their investors and not those who rent property on their platform. Anyone investing in the str market should understand the ins and outs of the companies that dictate these terms. Now do I think they are going away? Do I think the STR market is doomed? No. I just think that their shares are overpriced.