You have gotten a lot of great advice. Some observations from a small-time Cincinnati guy:
- You allocate no money for property management. Even if you plan on managing yourself, you should still include management even if only at something like 8%. This is a real cost of your time and if you plan to scale, you want to build this in to your numbers so you can do that in the future. Some may disagree with me on this but this is something I learned as I've gone along.
- Your budget for capex and maintenance are too low, in my experience. You should add another 5%. Also, they are technically separate and you should setup a capex account just for those funds.
- You need to be cautious with your taxes. Hamilton County will be reassessing taxes next year and implementing the new rate in 2021. I believe my timeline is correct but someone else may correct me. This means that if your ARV is accurate and they see other properties in the area selling for that, your taxes will go up 15 months after you buy the property. For example, if the new market value is $130K they will assess at $45K in Ohio (35%). Depending on the tax district you are in you will pay around 85 mills give or take (depends on school/tax district). Therefore your taxes would be at $3,867 per year. Even if they only gave a market value of $100k and your local mill rate was 80 your taxes would still go up to $2,800. This is about double what you forecast. There is no guarantee they will assess you at this but Hamilton County is not stupid and with real estate values going through the roof you can bet the county is coming for their pound of flesh. As a matter of fact, we are coincidentally waiting until 2021 to buy our next property for personal reasons but this will also allow me to wait and see how the assessments shake out next year. I think it will have the combined effect of making rents go up slightly and real estate prices go down slightly because it's going bite into a bigger share of the monthly budget homeowners and landlords can afford. Just my .02.
- What about water? In my experience the water in the Cincinnati Water Works district has to be in the owners name. Therefore this is an expense to you unless you can raise your rents about $50/mo (depends on tenant water usage obviously).
- Bottom line, I think you're paying too much for the property. You actually never state what your friend originally paid for the property but I suspect he paid about the right price, or maybe I overlooked that. From what I can see in the Cincinnati area, SFRs cannot cost your more than $80-90K in order to make money unless you're in a prime neighborhood like Oakley where you can command big time rents but you're only forecasting <$1,000. Of course there are exceptions and I'm sure people will jump on me but that is how I see the numbers.
Good luck to you. This is in no way trying to discourage you, quite the opposite. Just be very conservative with your numbers. Like Warren Buffet says, investing is a no-strike called game. You don't lose money for missing a few good investments therefore wait for your desired pitch.