Quote from @Kathie Russell:
35 years experience here. The market has definitely softened. But i am still doing deals. I have LTR's, STR's and i do 3 - 4 rehab flips per year. Slowly moving into multi family. I also run a REIA here in NC. The deals are still there if you know how to find them. Inexperience can make you go broke in a downturn, but if you know what you are doing it can be a gold mine. I am to the point where most of my deals come from referrals or people calling me, but there are still lots of active wholesalers out there who are bringing good deals (there are equally a lot of sorry wholesalers who don't know what they are doing, so be careful). In a downturn, if you are doing LTR, look at the average rents in the market and make sure your property isn't worth an amount that would demand rents significantly in excess of that. Check your old leases. Is it time for a rent raise? Quite likely if you haven't done so in awhile. Rents have skyrocketed. Do you have reserves for repairs and to get you through a renter defaulting? If you are doing STR, remember that people still travel in a downturn. They still vacation, but they don't vacation at the real expensive places (like Disney where they'll spend thousands). They will go to the beach, the mountains, and places where they can get a modest stay and a reasonably priced vacation. Buy your STR's accordingly. If you are doing flips, buy houses that will have an ARV that is below the average price in your area. Buy them so that if they don't sell, you will be able to rent or airbnb them. Being able to pivot in these markets is key. Opportunity will be rife for those who know what to look for. Short sales will come back. Foreclosures will come back. Creative deals will be key - can you imagine doing a sub to for some of those loans with those nice 2% interest rates? Change is here but it's not all bad. If you know how to work it, it can be very very good.
Thanks Kathie!
Yes 30-40% rent increase over past 2 years on most properties/units in my portfolio. Most experts agree there will be much less short sales + foreclosures this cycle. Also, locating properties below ARV is very tough to do these days. If it's priced low, there's a reason and it's likely a reason the seller knows, so you better find out. Many of those types of deals have already been combed over by 10+ investors previously. Those deals you mention are incredibly tough to find currently and most of the returns you can generate won't be high enough to compensate for the risk.
Though there some dogs where you can treat the fleas… you don’t find deals, you make them. Very very few worth treating for the price you can acquire it for… But then is the effort searching for them worth it?
I don’t like working for free. Everyone has different investment criteria, but for me there aren’t enough on the market for me to jump back in yet… 12-18 months once prices bottom and begin to tick up again…likely.