All Forum Posts by: John Horner

John Horner I am a buy and hold guy with rentals in prime locations (Washington DC area). Having been to see some pretty well known economists speak most believe 2020 will be the start of some unpleasantries. We still have 2 years. I am preparing my business by looking at other avenues.8 am not sitting around waiting for it. I have alternative investment strategies and am setting myself up for when it comes to take advantage of it

I get these weekly for my Oregon Markets and in Charleston my realtor send me updates.

https://altos.re/r/85542a0

for now I only have 4 more houses out of 23 to sell since the first of the year on my new builds in this city and profits are record highs.. so all is well for now.

Charleston the job market there is SO strong as I don't see it having  big change anytime soon.

the only one's that are hurting a little are landlords.. as there was a rush to buy and hold and not enough new construction being built we keep making new highs with our new homes. and nothing last more than 30 days..  ( Charleston Market specific)

Now I have two big Oregon projects on the books my bankers think like @Chris Seveney we are and they are fine financing for the next 2 build years.. then who knows but we still have not recovered from the last recession we still have a shortage of about 20 thousand new builds that can be absorbed.. so no slow down and you see the market report indicates that and the 3 big Amazon sites that are bringing about 6k workers don't go into service until late fall.. and the 23 homes I am building is 2 miles from there I did not sell one to anyone from Amazon.. sold one on sunday so some one moving in from Vegas.. so still 100 people a day move into the Portland metro and about 50 a day into Charleston those are my two main new build markets.

all of my turn key markets are also having record years the appetite for cash flow rentals has never been higher and with financing finally loosened up to where its not like pulling teeth to get a loan its just roared back with no end in site.. at least for my guys and gals.

And of course our note business is just steaming ahead at record pace as well as investors at the mom and pop level have learned what turnkey note investing is all about.

 Hi John, I'm constantly assessing the economy, real estate, and other events and how I approach the market. For me, I keep my debt load low (by buying using Subject To instead of using banks), I make sure each of my properties cash flow above average ($500 or more positive cash flow per month) and that they will still be a good choice if the rents drop (which I think for the foreseeable future they will continue going up). 

I watch unfunded liabilities and unfunded pension plans because the two obvious solutions politicians will choose are 1. raising taxes or 2. declaring bankruptcy. If property taxes go up significantly, like King Co. WA has just done (Seattle) or a city or a state declare bankruptcy (like Stockton, CA or maybe Illinois), then any investments in any of those areas lose value and may become a liability instead of an asset.

I don't Fix & Flip anymore because it is both the riskiest and highest taxed of the real estate investment options. I strictly buy "off market" using Subject To, Wraps, and Owner Financing and then sell using Lease Options for cash flow. Most people are too consumed with today's profits to even imagine that the market can swiftly change. I've been at this for nearly 25 years and if you look at the charts, we are probably due for a correction.