All Forum Posts by: John Clark

to your point 5, I do think there is a job shortage that is likely to persist... but i don't know if it's in the most exciting of fields. for example, i believe we will need hundreds of thousands or potentially even millions of home health care aides.

the people telling us that AI is going to AI everything are the people selling AI.

"everyone else needs the USA more than we need them" - I have no idea how to validate that. maybe it is true. how would you measure it?

We assume that....but just ask around or think about it deeply. WHo else would be in the #1 position? Some people might say China....but their economy is a 'house of cards' as we hear over and over, plus a totalitarian Communist regime is not likely to be trusted, so not them. The EU? Too fragmented and diverse to be powerful enough. They can't even protect themselves without the US, hence NATO. So not them. India? Nope, lol....

It's really just us.

the people telling us that AI is going to AI everything are the people selling AI.

So true, right? And AI will always have a huge trust factor.

America is FAR from being the "trusted" person on the international stage. At least, not trusted in a good way.

Yes, I would say China and even Rusia are far more "trusted" internationally than USA.

The USA has a long history of stabbing people in the back. Or meddling in foreign nations affairs and only ever making things far worse.

Example, Iran. The Iran we have today, that USA hates, that so many hate, is all thanks to USA. Many are probably just a bit too young to remember it all. We really f'd that country up.

There is a long list of countries the USA has used, abused, and the people don't forget.

China does not have that history. Nor even Russia. USA is king-Con on the international stage.

This is why our allies don't ever even fully trust us, because they've seen us F so many others and we just say "yeah, but, were like buddies n all, we wouldn't do that to you...." until we do.

Afghanistan is another. In 80's we made so many great promises, and Osama was our operative. We trained and funded them. And then when they did the job we gave them, when they achieved all the goals, we f'd em hard. So hard, that they never forgot it. And what happened, something far worse came in and took over and there we are back again many years later to deal with a mess we could have avoided if we had just honored our promises.

And than we did it AGAIN......

If you think the world is in some love-fest with USA, that's because you havn't been out around the world. Most places in the world have a very negative perception of USA and Americans.

And fact is USA earned that. Only way to change it is to hold self accountable and stop the BS. Stop "nation building" which is code word for nation imploding given its trackrecord.

China is HUGE in Africa. There taking over and Africa is THE resources powerhouse. What's USA doing, saber rattling about making Gaza a damn resort..... wtf.....

China builds roads, hospitals, infrastructure, is taking over a continent with there smiles and gifts. USA could learn a thing or 12 from them.

We can't even keep Russia in check who is a laughing stock compared to China.

The world does not need the USA, they simply are happy to use the USA if and when it suits them. NATO, China, all great examples of this. USA is #1 at being used, because we like the ego-stroke. Europe giggles and says they'll happily let USA enjoy the ego and let them enjoy the wealth. There not dumb.

Get out there, travel the world, find out for yourself. The reality is far different than the domestic propaganda.

I usually agrree with ya.....but I really believe that, given the choice, most nations would rather be like us, and do business with us, than either China or Russia. And yes, I've travelled around a good bit....I see and hear both the disdain (and a little bit of jealosy) and the love and admiration for America.

Completely agree that our foreign policy has been a nightmare at times....under both parties. Misguided good intentions at best and outright greed and power mongering at worst. Bring back the Shah.
And Great Britain and other European powers have nothing to talk to us about...remember British Petroleum and Saudi Arabia...? Talk about a power grab.....

It's really the theory of America that people love. And unfortunately, the actual practice or actions that have made unnecessary enemies and disdain.

Iraq is a good example of what I am trying to say.

When we first rolled in there, in was nothing but cheer's, flowers, hug's n love. It was amazing. Next thing, the local military/police just wanted a chance to do normal things of running and helping there country, under USA control etc.. There big-wig general was all set. It was a slam dunk.

Than these D.C. morons took over and acted as if we were still in active combat. Demanded us control thru n thru, that nope all the soldiers, Generals, all of em were out and we'd instill something else. Complete idiocy. 48hrs later things started exploding.

And the rest is history.

Nothing was gained by any of it, and a hell of a lot was lost, all for the sake of power/money grab to funnel everything through big-corp..

That's the kind of stuff that the rest of the world leaders have seen and why none of em truly trust us. And USA earned that distrust.

And across Africa, yes, they do prefer to work with China or Russia vs USA in many ways because there is fear that USA will change there mind mid-stream, maybe decide there government needs to be changed, overthrown, or whatever. Because we've done that, a lot.

I don't think they necessarily "like" Russia or China, but they don't fear the partnership with them like they do USA. And that cost's the USA opportunaties.

Our meddling to "make things better" almost never works out. Afghanistan (twice now), iraq (3 times now), Syria, Iran, Libya, Ukraine, Vietnam, Korea...... Our list of fails is long. Try to name some "nation building" we got right......

USA has gotta change the way we try to influence things or were just gonna keep building that list of distrust. And work on understanding we don't really always know what's best in foreign nations and foreign cultures.

We started getting things right in Iraq when we started focusing on taking a back-seat and assisting vs being the "nation builder" and that only happened because of ISIS, yet another line on USA's "whopsies" list.

Korea was the same, we had it done and in the can until McArthur wanted to really make sure he was set for a POTUS run and pressed the Chinease into getting into it. And all the way back to the 38th and where we sit today. There would be no "Rocket-Man" if he hadn't done that stupidity. And he was warned, i know because I knew the Lt Col who warned him personally and got it straight from the horses mouth himself.

The first step in solving a problem is first admitting you got one.

The USA is not loved, cherished and trusted in the world. We need to do something about that.

Yeah, nothing says that we’re worthy of love, trust, and cherishing than insulting the leaders of other countries (Canada and Ukraine), threatening to take them over (Canada, Greenland (part of Denmark) and imposing economically incoherent tariffs on the world.

Looks like those Econ 101 textbooks are re-asserting themselves, James. Kinda like what Neal Degrass Tyson said about science, it works, and it doesn’t care what we think.

0 Votes

Denver, Colorado

Quote from @Shi-Feng Lin:

Hello BP. Rookie investor here. Am looking for my first 2-4 fam investment property. I've decided to narrow down my search within the Hudson county in NJ. My real estate agent started sending me listing. There are listing that I like. The next thing I started looking up was the crime rate in that specific neighborhood and it didn't seem safe based on the crime rate. That was sort of a turn off for me. It got me wondering a couple things:

1. Should I research the neighborhood that I want to invest in first and then look at the houses within that neighborhood or should I analyze the houses first & then research the neighborhood?

2. Should I rely heavily on the crime rate that I found online or should I do a drive through and see it for myself so I can make a better decision on whether I want to invest in this neighborhood?

Neighborhood first. Your initial criteria is the best school districts you can find.

4 Votes

Jersey City, New Jersey

Quote from @Alan F.:

Quote from @John Clark:

Quote from @Alan F.:

Quote from @Greg Miller:

Quote from @John Clark:

Quote from @Alan F.:

https://www.epi.org/publication/briefingpapers_nafta01_impac...

An EPI article from 2001

Well known. In 1992 Ross Perot warned of the "giant sucking sound" of jobs disappearing in the US if NAFTA was signed.

Now compare the loss of those jobs to the money consumers saved and tell us whether NAFTA was better or worse over all.

Besides some effects on jobs created by competition, what metric are you using to suggest NAFTA has been overall bad? GDP in the US surged after NAFTA. Thats new business and old business becoming more successful. People tend to scream that china is stealing the manufacturing jobs which NAFTA obviously doesn't cover.

I often hear that tariffs will bring all the jobs back and it reminds me of the Piano. Once the largest industry and virtually died when the radio came in. I'm sure there were people screaming about re-opening piano factories but the world moved on. Theres no company in the world opening a new factory today, or planing a new factory today that won't be 90% robots/technology/AI. They will not be employing a substantial amount of humans.

As for housing and rents, extra costs added to labor and materials will slow construction and affordability lowering supply coming online, this will likely push both up in the mid-term, not down.

Consumer spending is included with GDP

Wouldn't it be a good thing if the next generation of semi cons, bio tech, robotics, surgical robots et al was built here in the states?

The ancillary companies, employees etc could earn a living. Believe it or not the jobs aren't really that complicated. If folks another countries can do it, why not Americans?

"If folks another countries can do it, why not Americans?"

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We can; just not at the price we want to pay. If we bring factories over here, they will be highly mechanized and few jobs will be produced. The factories that MAGA wants -- running 3 1,000 man shifts 24/7/365, will never come back. Since I am not one to cater to those too lazy to pay attention or develop skills in high school, I don't have a problem with the factories staying overseas. If we need specific manufacturing capacity here (ship building for the Navy, etc), then we can subsidize it. Raw materials like steel and refined copper? Import it and stockpile it and hold it for times of war. General metal bending for high school dropouts? Nope.

Okay

FWIW the high school drop outs out here on the floor do programming in Karel, are well versed at chemical handling and write ISO procedures. Maybe training is component in all of this? I'm not sure if captivating people based on their level of state run schools is relevant

Bully for them. Now take the percentage of high school drop outs who have the personalities to learn the work you describe and compare that to the horde of illiterate and innumerate dufuses we churn out who have no desire to be trained but want to do low value work for high wages. Economic ignorance that needs to be called out. I think you will find that your shop floor drop outs are not as common as you think.

High school offers book learning and work training for those who don’t take to book learning. I will move heaven and earth to help those who take high school seriously. The rest can plant trees and sweep streets.

1 Vote

Denver, Colorado

Quote from @Alan F.:

Quote from @Greg Miller:

Quote from @John Clark:

Quote from @Alan F.:

https://www.epi.org/publication/briefingpapers_nafta01_impac...

An EPI article from 2001

As for housing and rents, extra costs added to labor and materials will slow construction and affordability lowering supply coming online, this will likely push both up in the mid-term, not down.

Consumer spending is included with GDP

Wouldn't it be a good thing if the next generation of semi cons, bio tech, robotics, surgical robots et al was built here in the states?

The ancillary companies, employees etc could earn a living. Believe it or not the jobs aren't really that complicated. If folks another countries can do it, why not Americans?

2 Votes

Denver, Colorado

Quote from @Greg Miller:

Quote from @John Clark:

Quote from @Alan F.:

https://www.epi.org/publication/briefingpapers_nafta01_impac...

An EPI article from 2001

As for housing and rents, extra costs added to labor and materials will slow construction and affordability lowering supply coming online, this will likely push both up in the mid-term, not down.

"Besides some effects on jobs created by competition, what metric are you using to suggest NAFTA has been overall bad?"

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I never said NAFTA was bad. I just said that one had to compare the job losses and manufacturing capacity losses (cited in the article the poster had linked) with the money saved by having cheaper goods.

1 Vote

Denver, Colorado

Quote from @Alan F.:

https://www.epi.org/publication/briefingpapers_nafta01_impac...

An EPI article from 2001

0 Votes

Denver, Colorado

Quote from @V.G Jason:

Quote from @John Clark:

Quote from @V.G Jason:

Quote from @John Clark:

Quote from @V.G Jason:

Quote from @John Clark:

Quote from @Scott Trench:

@Bruce Woodruff

I think this is a good push. I'll give two putbacks to my prior analysis:

1) The yield curve could invert, and the market brace, for even two years, if Trump credibly brings a candidate for Fed Chair who will lower rates regardless of what inflation data reads, or the markets expect to be extremely dovish. Even if the current Fed keeps raising rates, this will result in the yield curve inverting again, in anticipation of the new Fed Chair changing things. I think that Jay Powell has thoroughly proven that he has no political allegiance, and is singularly focused on attempting to remedy the massive err made in 2021, and that he has, actually, done the least bad job by a central banker in the world from 2022 to 2025 (*hot take!).

2) If Trump removes the threat of tariffs, inflation will stop, and he can do this immediately and at any time.

This only somewhat addresses the points in your take, which I completely respect, but also respectfully disagree with.

I believe that inflation already picked up on the threat of tariffs, and it immediately changed some firm's behavior in pushing up prices for goods and materials that might be affected.

I believe that, excluding "immediate deportations" of folks who cross the border and are immediately sent back, that the impact of deportations is small, and is largely isolated to the deportation of convicted criminals in jail or prison in mostly red states. I would be willing to bet on a version of that, and will, in effect, through my real estate purchases this year.

Also - to be clear, I am not arguing that the policies will be "good" or "bad" in a more general sense for Americans. Just that I believe that they tend towards an inflationary effect on non-housing goods and services, and a slightly deflationary effect on housing by reducing demand for housing.

Trump’s economic policies will trigger a deep recession. Prices/rents will go down in real terms, and possibly nominal terms as well.

Not there, yet. But awfully close.

the correct way to emphasize tariffs was not 50% of trade indifference but shaped 10% tariffs on neutral needs, 0% on inelastic needs and 25% on elastic goods. With a slow, but emerging threat of increase if people don't come to the table to talk. Each country's three categories needed to be tapered to hit them hard. So not 25% on everything elastic. Example alcohol from France: make that 40%, make vinegar 10%.

Prior to implementation the need to create infrastructure and financial support for foreign companies to come here. Some incentive, maybe dupe them to do it by offering some variable nonsense like subprime.

We all know why they don't come here; they stay there for their jobs necessary to remain as a relevant country, for their GDP, and for their needs and protect proprietary information.

Only America goes to other countries like full blown misguided "capitalists". To me, borders on a retarded strategy. Market share is a force if you lose control of the market I digress though.

@Alan F. copper has a 90 day lock, because go check 1yr chart . I cannot post due to technology incompetence right now. It's down trend, they're betting on it going down; how you hedge is important.

"the correct way to emphasize tariffs was not 50% of trade indifference but shaped 10% tariffs on neutral needs, 0% on inelastic needs and 25% on elastic goods."

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That's not the formula Trump used. He took the trade deficit, subtracted it from the value of the goods imported from the other country, calculated the percentage, and then divided that percentage by 2. The result was the amount of the tariff.

Any economist will tell you it is complete, total, and utter, nonsense.

I know that's why I said it's not 50%(divided by 2) of trade indifference and offered how I would've applied it. Saying the same thing, just offering an alternative rather than what we did.

“How I would have applied it” has absolutely nothing to do with how Trump applied it. Your formula is not even close to being “the same thing.”

Trump’s tariff scheme is economically, financially, and politically, incoherent. The worst part is that he has destroyed America’s reputation for reliability. Of all of those factors, the loss of reliability will be the most expensive. The dollar will lose its reserve currency status.

You're not reading what I'm writing. I'm stating how I would've done it versus what Trump did.

We're saying the same thing on the 50%/ divided by 2 part not my implementation versus Trump's.

Think your blind hate is distorting your reading comprehension when I'm actually agreeing with you.

Then, separately suggested how I would've done it if I was president. Just an opinion I added.

To your last point, what's going to replace USD? Before folks make such comments please go read trade wars among other countries ex-US, it's miserable. You're asking the world to depend almost entirely on China unless you have another solution, good luck with that. A bunch of sub 5 GDPs aren't going to bail out the next in trade deficits. I have an idea on what it would be.

I can torture your original words into being an opinion, so I will let that part go. Nothing to do with blind hate. I see far more DTS (Deranged Trump Supporter) than TDS (Trump Derangement Syndrome) around here.

As for loss of reserve status, that will come down to the Euro, china, and baskets of currencies tied to particular commodities, such as oil and OPEC nations.

1 Vote

Denver, Colorado

Quote from @V.G Jason:

Quote from @John Clark:

Quote from @V.G Jason:

Quote from @John Clark:

Quote from @Scott Trench:

@Bruce Woodruff

I think this is a good push. I'll give two putbacks to my prior analysis:

2) If Trump removes the threat of tariffs, inflation will stop, and he can do this immediately and at any time.

This only somewhat addresses the points in your take, which I completely respect, but also respectfully disagree with.

I believe that inflation already picked up on the threat of tariffs, and it immediately changed some firm's behavior in pushing up prices for goods and materials that might be affected.

Trump’s economic policies will trigger a deep recession. Prices/rents will go down in real terms, and possibly nominal terms as well.

"the correct way to emphasize tariffs was not 50% of trade indifference but shaped 10% tariffs on neutral needs, 0% on inelastic needs and 25% on elastic goods."

-----------------------------------------------

Any economist will tell you it is complete, total, and utter, nonsense.

I know that's why I said it's not 50%(divided by 2) of trade indifference and offered how I would've applied it. Saying the same thing, just offering an alternative rather than what we did.

2 Votes

Denver, Colorado

Quote from @V.G Jason:

Quote from @John Clark:

Quote from @V.G Jason:

Quote from @John Clark:

Quote from @Scott Trench:

@Bruce Woodruff

I think this is a good push. I'll give two putbacks to my prior analysis:

2) If Trump removes the threat of tariffs, inflation will stop, and he can do this immediately and at any time.

This only somewhat addresses the points in your take, which I completely respect, but also respectfully disagree with.

I believe that inflation already picked up on the threat of tariffs, and it immediately changed some firm's behavior in pushing up prices for goods and materials that might be affected.

Trump’s economic policies will trigger a deep recession. Prices/rents will go down in real terms, and possibly nominal terms as well.

"the correct way to emphasize tariffs was not 50% of trade indifference but shaped 10% tariffs on neutral needs, 0% on inelastic needs and 25% on elastic goods."

-----------------------------------------------

Any economist will tell you it is complete, total, and utter, nonsense.

I know that's why I said it's not 50%(divided by 2) of trade indifference and offered how I would've applied it. Saying the same thing, just offering an alternative rather than what we did.

2 Votes

Denver, Colorado

Quote from @Julie M.:

There was a storm that damaged the siding of my rental property. I received a couple estimates between $2600-$3500. My tenant just mentioned a leak as well that may be due to the damage. My deductible is $2000. Is it worth it to file an insurance claim? I've read that following claims can increase my premium, so not sure it's worth it. Would appreciate any advice! Thanks

My rule of thumb has been don't file unless you receive 4X your deductible, so $10k in damages for a $2k deductible. Get someone to check (and fix) the leak ASAP, regardless of whether it's an insurance loss or not. NEVER delay on water-related problems.

1 Vote

All Forum Posts by: John Clark

John Clark has started 5 posts and replied 1332 times.

Post: Trump Policies Will Put Downward Pressure on Real Estate Rents/Prices

Post: Should I research the neighborhood first and then look at the houses or vice versa?

Post: Trump Policies Will Put Downward Pressure on Real Estate Rents/Prices

Post: Trump Policies Will Put Downward Pressure on Real Estate Rents/Prices

Post: Trump Policies Will Put Downward Pressure on Real Estate Rents/Prices

Post: Trump Policies Will Put Downward Pressure on Real Estate Rents/Prices

Post: Trump Policies Will Put Downward Pressure on Real Estate Rents/Prices

Post: Trump Policies Will Put Downward Pressure on Real Estate Rents/Prices

Post: Trump Policies Will Put Downward Pressure on Real Estate Rents/Prices

Post: When is it worth filling insurance claim?