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All Forum Posts by: Johann Villalvir

Johann Villalvir has started 16 posts and replied 94 times.

Post: Machine Learning to predict comps

Johann VillalvirPosted
  • Real Estate Consultant
  • Indianapolis IN, USA
  • Posts 108
  • Votes 70
Quote from @Bob Stevens:
Quote from @Johann Villalvir:

Hey looking for other data nerds here. I built an AI app that uses ML to predict a home's ARV using other properties in the area that have been flipped. So far, this approach has saved my team so much time when sourcing on market deals. It almost feels like a cheat code for REI. Has anyone tried this approach before? What are the downsidesW

Why would one need an app? If you have experience in the area you should know, well you better know the ARV. Any property any street in all of my markets I will tell you the ARV within a few bux in under 5 minutes. Of course, some will be a bit higher or lower, depending on upgrades, appliances, tile, crowns, flooring etc. Also why not just run comps? IMO this does not make any sense, but what do know. So many are trying to reinvent the wheel when its just about numbers.

All the best 


You said it correctly, one without your experience in an area would need that app.

The app pulls comps for hundreds of properties, and then it sorts them from highest to lowest margin in under 2 seconds. How long would it take you to do that manually?

Post: Machine Learning to predict comps

Johann VillalvirPosted
  • Real Estate Consultant
  • Indianapolis IN, USA
  • Posts 108
  • Votes 70
Quote from @Eric Fernwood:

Hello @Johann Villalvir,

Congratulations your accomplishment.

Some background: I am an engineer and what I do in our investment services business is primarily data science and software development.

We use data mining software to evaluate thousands of properties based on about 40 behavioral characteristics of our target tenant segment. The software performs the following functions:

  • Eliminates all properties that do match our target tenant pool segment.
  • Selects sales and rental comps for evaluating rent and return.
  • Generates investor analytics. We provide actionable information, not MLS data sheets.

I’ve experimented with increasing the scope of our software. However, despite trying many approaches, I have failed to consistently meet our accuracy and consistency requirements.

Today, we use a hybrid solution. We reduce the number of investment properties to consider by about 99.6% using our data mining software. Then, we match the properties that passed the data mining engine against the specific financial situation and goals of individual clients. Next, we manually evaluate each property. At the manual evaluation step, approximately 60% more are eliminated. Additional software estimates renovation costs and provides actionable analytics. We have never shipped MLS data sheets.

Below are some reasons why taking the next step with software, has not been successful for me.

  • There is a lot of inaccurate information in the MLS. A recent example, "How much is the monthly association fee?" Answer in the MLS, "Yes."
  • Computers cannot accurately determine whether a property is located in a desirable or undesirable area for a particular tenant pool segment using photos or aerial maps. There are more location considerations. For instance, even if a property has excellent characteristics, it may not rent if there is a significant amount of traffic on the street. This determination can only be made if you know the specific street.
  • An onsite evaluation is essential. For example, if there is a barking dog next to a property, it will not rent. How can software determine the presence of a barking dog?
  • Zillow and OpenDoor attempted to use software to predict the sale price of properties and their results were/are bad because their software was poor and the inherent limitation of software to deal with subjective data. Zillow lost so much money that they decided to exit the flipping business, while most of the OpenDoor properties we see in Las Vegas are sold at a loss.

In my experience, software can only go so far when humans are involved. Our hybrid approach has worked well. If there is a better approach, I would like to understand what it is.

Thanks for your post.

 Thanks for your response @Eric Fernwood. I would love to understand what criteria your software is using to eliminate 99.6% of all properties.

Congratulations on developing a hybrid system that works for your company! In my experience, whenever someone has data and software skills, they're very dangerous in real estate.

Post: Canadian Investing In Indianapolis!

Johann VillalvirPosted
  • Real Estate Consultant
  • Indianapolis IN, USA
  • Posts 108
  • Votes 70

Hey Sam, I built and AI app that helps you find homes to flip in Indianapolis. Happy to connect! 

Post: Indy Interior Design

Johann VillalvirPosted
  • Real Estate Consultant
  • Indianapolis IN, USA
  • Posts 108
  • Votes 70
Quote from @Account Closed:
Quote from @Johann Villalvir:

I'm curious, what software do you use to test interior design concepts?

Hi! for what you’re asking, a free internet based platform called Homestyler is enough to study concepts like floorplan layouts, furniture space planning, and creating nice looking renderings.the learning curve is pretty easy. SketchUp has a free version and it’s come a long way. The Pro paid version can create a decent set of plans, with elevations, details, finish schedules etc but for the average investor, Homestyler is my recommendation. there are many out there though.  Below is a before and after of a studio condo I’m considering of purchasing to attract traveling nurses that I used Homestyler to quickly model out the space. 

 Thanks for sharing @Account Closed. The photos look great. It's hard to believe they're the same space!

Post: Out of State Contractor

Johann VillalvirPosted
  • Real Estate Consultant
  • Indianapolis IN, USA
  • Posts 108
  • Votes 70

@Emma Santana welcome to the Indiana market. When working with contractors remotely unfortunately you have to be sort of a micromanager. Ask them to send photos each day at the jobsite, and have someone you trust walk the property to make sure everything was done correctly 

Post: Existing Unpermitted Additions

Johann VillalvirPosted
  • Real Estate Consultant
  • Indianapolis IN, USA
  • Posts 108
  • Votes 70

Hey Josh,

That's an interesting situation, usually, additions will still make it to the tax records even when owners don't pull permits for such additions. There are many reasons why an owner might want to keep additions on the low including lower taxes, and the complexity of the permitting process. However, an appraiser will inspect the house and come up with their assessed value regardless of whether or not there were permits pulled for the additions.

So on of the ways to put the addition in the tax record would be to sell the house so an appraiser inspects the property.

Post: Indy Interior Design

Johann VillalvirPosted
  • Real Estate Consultant
  • Indianapolis IN, USA
  • Posts 108
  • Votes 70

I'm curious, what software do you use to test interior design concepts?

Post: Is it a good idea to build a home addition to build equity?

Johann VillalvirPosted
  • Real Estate Consultant
  • Indianapolis IN, USA
  • Posts 108
  • Votes 70

A home addition can increase the equity in your home if the value of your home goes up. But this is not always the case. Look at what other properties in your neighborhood have sold for, if higher, look at the additional things they have and build those.

Post: Wholesaling partnership !!!

Johann VillalvirPosted
  • Real Estate Consultant
  • Indianapolis IN, USA
  • Posts 108
  • Votes 70

What's your W2 job?

Post: Indianapolis contractor wanted

Johann VillalvirPosted
  • Real Estate Consultant
  • Indianapolis IN, USA
  • Posts 108
  • Votes 70

Hey Jacob, finding reliable contractors is such a pressing challenge for anyone, especially for out of state investors. What we've done that works is to look at who's pulling the most permits (i.e, doing the most jobs) and start calling them. I hope that helps!