Originally posted by "Ryan Webber":
My experience is that over 95% of the time the appraisal will come back within 5-10% of the purchase price,
I agree with the 5-10% statement. If it is a true arms-length transaction with the buyer and seller both being knowledgable about the market, then the appraisal should come in very close to the sale price.
However, there are many appraisers out their that just "hit the number" in order to make the deal go through. There are also plenty of us out there that do not. I have been appraising properties in Massachusetts for the past four years, and my values have resulted in deals being killed numerous times over the years. Yes, I've lost clients over it, but I don't care. I've spent a lot of time and money to obtain my certification, and I'm not going to toss that away for a few hundred dollars just to help a deal go through.
Here in MA, the market is declining in most areas and forclosures are on the rise. I will not be suprised at all to see some appraisers lose their licenses in the coming months and years. I've been hearing many instances of appraisers having their work from 2-3 years ago questioned because the property is now or soon will be in foreclosure. The skippies who were out there 'hitting the number" are going to find themselves in trouble.
I just find it odd that you guys don't think an appraisal has anything to do with market value. True, it is an "opinion" of value, but it is based on information from the market. The Buyer offers what is their "opinion" of what the property is worth. So in essence, everything is an opinion, until an agreement is reached and the deal is done. Once the deal is closed, we consider it a fact (or market value).
Yes I've lost clients over some of my appraisals. My feeling is if the client is going to stop giving me work, then that's a client I don't want to be associated with because they will probably get me in trouble in the long run. Here in MA, only the actual Mortgage Broker has to be licensed. The individual loan officers working for the broker do not, and many of the loan officers have no clue about the real estate market. For instance I went on an appointment a few weeks ago and the loan officer was there for my appointment. The owners had bought the property two years ago for somewhere around 340k (I don't recall the actuall number). The loan officer told me they had invested about 50-60k in renovations, so he figured it was now worth 400-420K. A dollar spent does not equal a dollar increase in value, plus the market is in a decline. I came in about 10-15k above the last sale, and all my comps were sales within 6 months. I would have had to use sales that were 12-18 months old to come anywhere close to 400k. While there are skippies out there that would probably include one or two of those old sales to increase their opinion of value, that's not a stretch I will make.
I ignore all estimates of values included on appraisal requests, and a good portion of my clients don't even put them on the order. The only time a look at the value is on a sale because I am required to review the sales contract. Many times the contract will include personal property (lawnmowers, TVs, etc.) and I am required to report that personal propety is involved in the sale. Those personal items are not included in my opinion of value.
I have also heard appraisers rationalize if someone is willing to pay a certain price, then that is the market value. But one must investigate the buyers motivations for purchasing that particular property. For instance, a while back I was appraising a loft style condominium unit in a new development. The buyers were paying about 20k more for the unit than any other unit in the complex. Keep in mind I had already appraised about 10 units in the complex. It turns out, the same buyer had already closed on the unit next door, and were planning on cutting through the common wall to make one large unit. They were overpaying, because they needed that unit to complete their plans. I came in lower than the sales price, explained why, and the lender agreed with my value and the deal still went through.
Appraisers are not employees of the lender. We are independent third parties who give the lender our opinion of the value of the property. The lender uses our report to decide if the loan is woth their risk. Appraisers don't kill deals. The lender has the final say in who they loan money to and who they don't.
Real estate fraud is all over the place, and one must beware.
Check out www.flippingfrenzy.com for some interesting articles.