Thanks for the feedback. I recognize that the ratings are all bound in the same range, but that's because they're all pretty similar in terms of equity risk, property types, etc. The key is really the implied return vs the projected cash on cash, as you'll start to see some deals that are clearly better than others. For example, there are deals rated D that are better than DDD because the relative return is better.
Right now I'm finding that the debt deals pay out a better risk adjusted return. That seems to be consistent with what I've seen in the market where debt spreads have been flat for almost a year (spiking up right now though) but cap rates continue to compress. That tells me that the equity market is getting a little overheated.
On another subject, you and I exchanged posts about your study regarding the NCREIF index and how it's not as volatile as REITs. I argued that the NCREIF uses info on core properties (I believed, but didn't confirm), so it is expected to be less volatile. I wanted to let you know I came across this explanation on the NCREIF website as part of my research on historical returns:
Is the NFI-DP a Core, Value-Added or Opportunistic Index?
Currently the NFI-DP consists of 8 funds that most closely represent core risk investment strategies; they generally target capital preservation, and stable operating income returns using moderate amounts of leverage. Although the types of investments will vary from fund to fund, they predominantly invest in private equity real estate, either directly or through fund of fund structures, along with public listed securities and cash to accommodate the daily liquidity provisions. As the universe of daily priced funds expands, NCREIF will monitor the product offerings and determine how to position products with non-core strategies.
How do the funds included in the NFI-DP differ from publicly listed REITS?
Investors in listed REITs buy and sell securities on a public exchange, the price of which is often influenced by supply and demand as well as other non-real estate market forces. Investors in the funds included in the NFI-DP buy and sell directly with the sponsor (manager) of the fund, the price of which is based solely on the daily valuation of the underlying investments in the fund.