All Forum Posts by: Justin Glass

I think I’ve listened to all of the BP podcasts and this one resonated with me most. As a teacher myself, I could identify with Bryce in so many ways. And I agree with other posters, he should consider motivational speaking! He is a brilliant communicator and has an inspiring and educational message!

I actually plan to use this with a mini-unit I’m planning for my HS juniors. Kids need more information about personal finance and FI at an early age. Wish someone had exposed me to some of these principles at 17 instead of 37!

Nicely done, BP. And from one teacher to another, well done, Mr. Stewart!

Since 1990 the City of Chicago went from 2,786,000 people to 2,705,000  - a loss of 81,000 people in 25 years and a 3% loss. Since 1990 the metro area of Chicago went from 8,239,820 people to 9,504,753 in 2016 - an increase of 1,264,933 people in 25 years and a 116% increase

Blanket market stats are not relevant in large markets. 

I look at things from a macro level - Even a zip code is too big of an area to be taking stats at face value

Take the 60618 zip code in Bell School District - it has one of the fastest declining populations in the city. Why? Because what once was an area with 70% of the housing stock being 2-4 units it is now less than 50% because developers are converting the 2-4 buildings to SFH and selling them to Cubs and Blackhawks players with kids who want to go to a top rated school. So there is a decline in population because the number of housing units is declining, thus limiting the supply and increasing price. Now there are less 2-4 units so supply is low and those prices are going up, but we have a surplus of SFH and prices are not increasing. Throw in condos and that is a whole different market.

Even in the same school district houses west of western sell for a few hundred thousand dollars less. Go north of irving park road in the same zip code is a different school district and a totally different market.

So I would not even use stats to look at home sales in this zip code, the condo, SFH, and 2-4 unit markets are completely different and looking at a "days on market" stat or "average home price" includes all of those could lead you to make an investing mistake.

The city center now is growing faster than ever, having gained an estimated 42,423 people from 2010-15. But the population of the non-lakefront South Side is dropping even quicker, falling about 50,000 in the same period. So you need to look at the areas specifically to understand what is going on. 

Chicago is NOT declining...last number I heard was 55 cranes actively building in Chicago. Vacancy rate remains low. The south side is rip roaring hot along with some of the fringe west side neighborhoods. The trend seems to be a small exodus from the southside in poorer neighborhoods to the burbs because of schools being shut down and the gentrification (I'm sorry...there's a whole foods in Englewood....IN ENGLEWOOD!!!!!) This leads me to see growth and a greater urban spread of development. 

Chicago and IL are not growing and that should be concerning, but it's not doom and gloom. Most Midwest cities lost massive population 20-30 years ago and Chicago was able to stay strong. Unlike most of those other cities, Chicago has an appeal that no other city can touch and I'd argue Summertime Chi is the best city in the country. Ultimately, Chicago needs job creation and tax reform to help turnaround some of the population trends. 

@John Casmon

Yes. Several companies moved to Chicago. But all of those companies were already in Illinois. I think the city does have a shot at luring some of the suburbia companies there just because the execs think they can get more workers if they're based downtown - even though it means crazy commutes for their workers.

Where I believe Illinois and Chicago have an extremely difficult problem is in luring jobs from other areas. And far more companies are leaving the state and very few if any are actually relocating here.

Can anybody name a decent sized company that has moved to Illinois in the last 3 or 4 years?  I sure can't.  I can name a couple that have left though. And its not just companies - its people too. People are leaving the city and the state in droves.  Thats when things for investors can get even worse.......

Again, I'm not saying investors can't make money here in Illinois or can't build a portfolio of rentals that do ok.  But I don't see how anybody in their right mind can advocate that any area in Illinois would make for a good investment when comparing them to some of the other areas in the country.

If you said is Chicago better than LA to buy and hold rentals? That may be a yes.
But if you were to ask whether it makes sense to invest in Illinois over a handful of other more landlord friendly areas, I would say absolutely not. There is not a single thing to like about Illinois for investors in terms of any of the indicators one would typically use.

The only possible saving grace is that the price to rent ratios are reasonable here. But when you add up taxes and tenant friendly laws in some counties here, you're losing money.

Here's a good article from 2015 and its only gotten worse since then:
Friday, 14 August 2015
Trickle of Companies Leaving Illinois Turning Into a Flood

Here's another:
STILL LEAVING ILLINOIS: AN EXODUS OF PEOPLE AND MONEY
By J. Scott Moody

Jan 3, 2017 - Michael Lucci
MOVING OUT: ILLINOIS HAS COUNTRY’S WORST OUTBOUND RATE IN 2016

Foam is workable but once damaged it is hard to cover up. I would say no to base trim, door trim and chair rails but yes to Crown Molding,