All Forum Posts by: Jeremiah Dunakin

to your point 5, I do think there is a job shortage that is likely to persist... but i don't know if it's in the most exciting of fields. for example, i believe we will need hundreds of thousands or potentially even millions of home health care aides.

the people telling us that AI is going to AI everything are the people selling AI.

"everyone else needs the USA more than we need them" - I have no idea how to validate that. maybe it is true. how would you measure it?

We assume that....but just ask around or think about it deeply. WHo else would be in the #1 position? Some people might say China....but their economy is a 'house of cards' as we hear over and over, plus a totalitarian Communist regime is not likely to be trusted, so not them. The EU? Too fragmented and diverse to be powerful enough. They can't even protect themselves without the US, hence NATO. So not them. India? Nope, lol....

It's really just us.

the people telling us that AI is going to AI everything are the people selling AI.

So true, right? And AI will always have a huge trust factor.

America is FAR from being the "trusted" person on the international stage. At least, not trusted in a good way.

Yes, I would say China and even Rusia are far more "trusted" internationally than USA.

The USA has a long history of stabbing people in the back. Or meddling in foreign nations affairs and only ever making things far worse.

Example, Iran. The Iran we have today, that USA hates, that so many hate, is all thanks to USA. Many are probably just a bit too young to remember it all. We really f'd that country up.

There is a long list of countries the USA has used, abused, and the people don't forget.

China does not have that history. Nor even Russia. USA is king-Con on the international stage.

This is why our allies don't ever even fully trust us, because they've seen us F so many others and we just say "yeah, but, were like buddies n all, we wouldn't do that to you...." until we do.

Afghanistan is another. In 80's we made so many great promises, and Osama was our operative. We trained and funded them. And then when they did the job we gave them, when they achieved all the goals, we f'd em hard. So hard, that they never forgot it. And what happened, something far worse came in and took over and there we are back again many years later to deal with a mess we could have avoided if we had just honored our promises.

And than we did it AGAIN......

If you think the world is in some love-fest with USA, that's because you havn't been out around the world. Most places in the world have a very negative perception of USA and Americans.

And fact is USA earned that. Only way to change it is to hold self accountable and stop the BS. Stop "nation building" which is code word for nation imploding given its trackrecord.

China is HUGE in Africa. There taking over and Africa is THE resources powerhouse. What's USA doing, saber rattling about making Gaza a damn resort..... wtf.....

China builds roads, hospitals, infrastructure, is taking over a continent with there smiles and gifts. USA could learn a thing or 12 from them.

We can't even keep Russia in check who is a laughing stock compared to China.

The world does not need the USA, they simply are happy to use the USA if and when it suits them. NATO, China, all great examples of this. USA is #1 at being used, because we like the ego-stroke. Europe giggles and says they'll happily let USA enjoy the ego and let them enjoy the wealth. There not dumb.

Get out there, travel the world, find out for yourself. The reality is far different than the domestic propaganda.

I usually agrree with ya.....but I really believe that, given the choice, most nations would rather be like us, and do business with us, than either China or Russia. And yes, I've travelled around a good bit....I see and hear both the disdain (and a little bit of jealosy) and the love and admiration for America.

Completely agree that our foreign policy has been a nightmare at times....under both parties. Misguided good intentions at best and outright greed and power mongering at worst. Bring back the Shah.
And Great Britain and other European powers have nothing to talk to us about...remember British Petroleum and Saudi Arabia...? Talk about a power grab.....

It's really the theory of America that people love. And unfortunately, the actual practice or actions that have made unnecessary enemies and disdain.

Iraq is a good example of what I am trying to say.

When we first rolled in there, in was nothing but cheer's, flowers, hug's n love. It was amazing. Next thing, the local military/police just wanted a chance to do normal things of running and helping there country, under USA control etc.. There big-wig general was all set. It was a slam dunk.

Than these D.C. morons took over and acted as if we were still in active combat. Demanded us control thru n thru, that nope all the soldiers, Generals, all of em were out and we'd instill something else. Complete idiocy. 48hrs later things started exploding.

And the rest is history.

Nothing was gained by any of it, and a hell of a lot was lost, all for the sake of power/money grab to funnel everything through big-corp..

That's the kind of stuff that the rest of the world leaders have seen and why none of em truly trust us. And USA earned that distrust.

And across Africa, yes, they do prefer to work with China or Russia vs USA in many ways because there is fear that USA will change there mind mid-stream, maybe decide there government needs to be changed, overthrown, or whatever. Because we've done that, a lot.

I don't think they necessarily "like" Russia or China, but they don't fear the partnership with them like they do USA. And that cost's the USA opportunaties.

Our meddling to "make things better" almost never works out. Afghanistan (twice now), iraq (3 times now), Syria, Iran, Libya, Ukraine, Vietnam, Korea...... Our list of fails is long. Try to name some "nation building" we got right......

USA has gotta change the way we try to influence things or were just gonna keep building that list of distrust. And work on understanding we don't really always know what's best in foreign nations and foreign cultures.

We started getting things right in Iraq when we started focusing on taking a back-seat and assisting vs being the "nation builder" and that only happened because of ISIS, yet another line on USA's "whopsies" list.

Korea was the same, we had it done and in the can until McArthur wanted to really make sure he was set for a POTUS run and pressed the Chinease into getting into it. And all the way back to the 38th and where we sit today. There would be no "Rocket-Man" if he hadn't done that stupidity. And he was warned, i know because I knew the Lt Col who warned him personally and got it straight from the horses mouth himself.

The first step in solving a problem is first admitting you got one.

The USA is not loved, cherished and trusted in the world. We need to do something about that.

Of course I generally agree with ya, we have messed up. I still believe we are envied and liked aroubd the world much more than you think we are.

And the goal to get America back to being 'loved, cherished and trusted' is not necessarily a good goal. Depends what we have to do, or give up, to regain that status.

If saving the world several times over, keeping the current bad guys at bay, building and re-building multiple countries, showering much of the world with our financial largesse (all while being disrespected and treated like general crap BTW) is not enough, then I am in the group that says F 'em.

Let China take over that role and go bankrupt doing it, it'll be fun watching them go down the tubes.....

This Bruce x100. We don’t need to be liked. We don’t need to be loved . If everyone likes us it means you’re doing something wrong. There is pure evil in this world and USA is one of the few who will stand up to it. Here’s what I know people can say we are not well liked. Well how many immigrants are trying to come here each year? If a place isn’t liked we sure do have people doing whatever they can at all cost to get here. I would bet we take on more immigrants than rest of world combined. Also Africa may not prefer to deal with us. The fact of the matter is the love USA cause they take all of aide money and warlords pilfer it leaving those poor people to rot. It’s a crying shame. But USA doesn’t care care and just keep sending more and more and more money to them. I think the opposite is true they love dealing with us. We are a blank check. The rest of world is the same. It’s popular to hate USA but every single country depends on our blood and money. It’s disrespectful and I’m glad we are shutting off the faucet. These countries for far to long talk trash about how bad we are but take our money and blood.

2 Votes

Denver, Colorado

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I don't have international guests. But this absolutely will affect international travel. I have family and friends in Canada who regularly visit the US, and they've cancelled all trips for the foreseeable future, they are hopping mad. I don't know how much this will affect guests from other countries, but it is bound to. I hope since your guests come mainly for the school there, you'll be spared a lot of it.

Unfortunately, this administration is at war with universities and scientific research and I rely heavily on Harvard & MIT which are taking major hits. They have already frozen hiring and I suspect that means there will be fewer visiting scholars. That certainly feels like what is happening, given the fact that our MTR inquires are way down and we haven't leased the full calendar year.

There are 4 legs of our retirement income and 3 of them are under threat (Stock Market, Rental Income, Social Security).

I agree that we really don't know what will happen with Social Security but Musk has certainly been rattling his chainsaw.

We know what is happening to the stock market but some people think it is short term pain and others fear a recession. I'm a lot less sanguine than @Bruce Woodruff but I also am in wait and see mode.

And I know for a fact that my rental income is taking a major hit. It now just depends upon how large a hit. So far, I know we will be down by at least by $6000 this year.

Sigh...

Actually, to be accurate, it is the Universities that have chosen their path and are finally getting called on their S**t.
And the Stock Market and Social Security are not under any threat. Once the economy settles down from the tariffs and all of these fraud and waste exposures, we (the US) will be rolling again. Just be patient. you will be fine, and I wish you the best!

On the Stock market, as an Active Trader, here is some context.

Tesla has lost nearly half it's "value" as of recent and do you know the P/E it's trading at? About 100.

To put this in terms Ford, who has NOT lost half it's "value" is around a P/E of 7...... No not 70, SEVEN.

Palantir who's come way down is still trading at a P/E above 400.....

Tech had been trading up to INSANE valuations. Valuations that make zero sense what so ever. There revenues and profits would have had to DOUBLE annually, for multiple years consecutively just to get into a "normal" P/E range.

It has been a Tech-Bubble.

No secret to this, it's only been talked about over-n-over for months and years.

Hence why this is being called a CORRECTION.

You can't CORRECT something that's a-ok fine, right? No, BROKEN messed up WRONG things get..... CORRECTED.

Just do some research, look up if a P/E over 100 is "normal". Ok, now look up a P/E over 200, 300, 400..... Around 200-300 ai is going to start replying with laughing emoji's saying "are you dumb, that's BONKERS".

Buffet got out saying things were overdue for a correction. Why? Because of this simple math, because it was into fantasy land valuations.

Nothing new to this bubble, we have seen bubbles many times before. Dot-com was a similar one.

I will put some belief into the notion of the market suffering when McDonalds isn't pacing record highs as it is. It's at $304 up from $236 YOY.

Like SOOOoooo much other BS media today it's FAKE NEWS! Spin spin SPIN.

Taking a real thing and spinning it to fit a narrative of why.

"Oh no fear tariff's"..... Home Depot (HD), yes "OMG" it's down too $354..... Back near it's $310 1yr ago and only up a 2X+ multiple from it $126 5yrs ago.......

So if we had HONEST news headlines it would be something more like "Oh No, valuations coming back closer to normal sanity levels and only a few multiples of what they were a few short years ago.....".

I am so exhausted of the non-stop onslaught of SPIN and people regurgitating headlines without any context or efforts to verify validity....

This times a million. The stock market has natural corrections. I think there is roughly one every two years. I think I read/heard that in the last like 95 years there are 45 corrections give or take a few. The market has been heavy in tech. Market will correct. It use to be from my limited knowledge the P/E you wanted like 15 or less. Like said it’s now 100+. That’s insane. People are desperate to soil dirty uniformed laundry. Tesla has been crashing since January, yet all we hear is how much Elon is getting paid by Trump, contracts for this and that(I think another president signed those agreements ) Musk loses millions everyday. An article today stated that DOGE found 12m+ people on social security who were over the age 120. Yet all you are gonna hear is how they want to cut social security. Yes they do and yes it’s a scam. People are so desperate to be mad at party of thier choice it becomes blind rage.

I'm not sure what was more outlandish. The rally post election or the head above water all 2024 prior to the election.

We need a reckoning. More than a correction.

That 10 year needs to come down. It's been a huge focus. In another thread I kept showing change post election, there's a reason for that. It's going to tell a lot of the story.

The market will work its self out. It always has. I’m confident in that. Since its inception it always has. Some companies are gonna do better. Some are gonna do worse

Long term, yes.

These policies are very pro American.

Short term, hopefully brutal. Tesla should see itself in the 140s. Need that terrible Q1 to post next month.

Scary how it got just under $490. I'll be buying the (harsher) dips as we are positioned (very) net short. Few others too.

Agreed. I will be doing the same. We have been conditioned to be very cushy in America that everything should be pain free(me too). I am similar situation. I let my personal finances slip a little. To counteract that I am doing the following.

1. Cut my spending on frivolous things/balancing budget. Same thing Doge is doing.
2. I am working 7 days a week 12 hours a day to speed it up. Short term it sucks and is painful but in a couple months I will be back to 40 hours but with more money in pocket cause I ain’t spending it all.

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