Well, if those are the real numbers, I'd say you're getting a hell of a deal...
Looks like you'd be buying with a near 17% cap rate, 30% COC return, and 31% total return...in fact, if you could turn around and sell it as a 9-cap, you could immediately turn a $250K profit (even after selling fees!)...
Now, that said, the only way that would be the case is if:
1) the seller didn't know how to determine the value of his property, and was ripping himself off;
2) you had the ability to reduce expenses to a point where very few owners can; or
3) the seller is extremely motivated for some reason and is willing to practically give away his property.
I'm guessing it's none of these, and that you are actually being too conservative in your pro-forma estimates. First, if expenses are coming in at much less than 40% of gross income, that should be a red flag. And it looks like yours are coming in at less than 25%.
Some questions:
- Is the 10% vacancy the total income loss? For example, if you have 10% vacancy, and 10% of your tenants don't pay (and have to be evicted), that's actually 20% loss. Too many buyers don't figure total loss when considering vacancy;
- $1000 per year in total maintenance seems *very* low. Does this include deferred maintenance and reserves for capital improvements (new roof in 10 years, HVAC replacements, etc)?
- Do you plan to spend any money on unit turn-over? What happens when someone moves out? Don't you need to get the carpets cleaned, the walls repainted, the bathroom scrubbed?
- Is the water sub-metered for this property? If not, you'll be paying for that.
- What about trash/sewage? Are your tenants paying that? Probably not, so you need to factor that in.
- Who is going to do the general upkeep of the property? Will you be picking up trash, mowing the lawn, landscaping, etc? It's not factored in, so either you're doing it or it needs to be free.
- Are you going to advertise the property to find tenants? Or will they magically find you and come beating down your door? If you plan to advertise, there will be a cost associated.
- $25/month in accounting fees seems low, but let's assume it's correct. I imagine this doesn't include tax consulting and tax preparation fees. Are you a tax professional or do you plan to hire one to help you keep some of this money?
- Will you be consulting an attorney to handle any contractual or legal issues (evictions, leases, purchase agreement, etc)? If so, factor that in.
- The insurance estimate seems low to me...have you verified this yourself, or are you trusting the current owner's pro-forma?
- Will you be doing the property management yourself, or hiring that out? If you're doing it yourself, do you have the time/energy/skills to do it successfully? What if you decide at some point in the future that you want to hire out the PM role...you should factor in those costs now, just in case.
I could be wrong, but it looks to me like you're ignoring a lot of costs associated with this property, and will be in for a big surprise when you start actually writing checks. My first question to you would be whether you put together this pro-forma yourself (based on actual numbers and experience) or if you just listened to the current owners description of the expenses.
All that said, it may still be a great deal, just make sure you do your due diligence before pushing ahead...