If you're going by traditional formulas, you overpaid for the property. (70% rule for Flip, 80% rule for BRRRR) However, that doesn't mean it's a deal that won't work for you. When you entered the deal, what were your goals? I know lenders who will do 75% LTV refi, make sure to shop around. I think you have some serious number crunching to do.
From the math you provided and the two loans your repaying, you have a slim profit margin for a flip and you might be a little upside down if you choose to refinance and rent it out, depending on your monthly payments plus loan payments. It’s okay if cash flow isn’t ideal but do you expect appreciation in that market?
I’d say to get your rent number more narrowed down now. $2000-$2500 is a big spread that a lender won’t be satisfied with. Figure out the real number. If you think you can get $2500, put in the upgrades necessary for that as long as they’re in budget.
Use the calculator on this site to run both scenarios and be honest about your numbers. Does your construction loan come with a prepayment penalty?
Refinance: If you refinance for 70% that’s $196K or 75% is $210K, both scenarios are well under what you owe ($150K “heloc” + $90K rehab loan) I decided to use $90K as your Reno budget to stay in the high side of your estimate. So you’ll still be paying 3% of your heloc each month and will owe the full $150K (or other balance) at the end of those 10 years. I know you say your only $5200 out of pocket right now but that Heloc is still your money, just in equity form.
Potential Flip numbers: $280K sale price - $150K heloc - $90k rehab loan - $20K (or more in closing costs/realtor fees) - $5218 monthly holding costs = roughly $15K profit.
Bright side of these scenarios is you don’t have to repay the heloc and can use that money plus your profit for your new project. No good or bad deal, just what works for you!