All Forum Posts by: Account Closed

@Carlos Ptriawan yes, based on 30 day move-out notices we have been receiving from Tenants there is a noticeable shift of people moving out of state. This is vastly different than years past when all our applicants were moving here from out of state. A slight shift in population is occurring. Property managers have real time info. It takes the media 6-12 months to catch up. @Bill B. I've been noticing rents decreasing slightly but still higher than pre-pandemic levels. Vacancies are not filling in a week like they use to. Houses are still renting fast but starting to noticeably slow which is a good thing. It was frantic here for awhile.

@Carlos Ptriawan institutional investors are not unloading their assets (not selling). They've simply halted their purchases. They have been Buyers in our market for 10+ years but noticeably increased their purchases starting Summer/Fall 2020. Now they've noticeably slowed/stopped their purchases.

@Nicholas L. very true but to an Owner who thinks their house is worth $475k this downward trend is a hard one to stomach and/or to an investor who purchased in Vegas during the pandemic. A majority of the appreciation the last 18 months appears to have been superficial and impacted by a once in a lifetime pandemic. Either way I love Vegas, live here and own many investment properties so I'm vested on the success of our city as a long-term hold. I do believe there will be opportunities for investors to enter our market in 2023 and 2024 if prices continue to dip and rent rates hold at these higher levels.

@Nicholas L. prices are coming down quickly in Las Vegas. Here's a snapshot from our local MLS hot sheet from this morning:

New Listing (255)
Back On Market (44)
Price Decrease (312)
Price Increase (15)
Under Contract - Show (57)
Under Contract - No Show (90)
Sold (145)

 Houses that would have sold for $475k in March now aren't even getting Buyers through the door at $445k w/ a $5k Seller closing credit. Too many listings to pick from, not enough Buyers and increased interest rates all play a factor in our local market. Real world example: 11650 Nardo Court 89183. This neighborhood was flooded with institutional investors (they were buying up until May 2022). Institutional investors won't even offer $380k for this house today. For a primary offer the Seller needs to be under $400k but most Sellers can't stomach such a quick drop in paper value. I've been following our housing trends vigilantly since our market started shifting Fall of 2020  (I've been investing here since 2009 which is why we started our PM company in 2010) . I bought my first two bedroom condo back in 2009 for $55k. Crazy low prices from 2009 - 2016...our low was December 2011/January 2012 and our high was March/April 2022. I've since sold it and transitioned to exclusively detached single family residential rentals 2012-2016. Here's an article if your interested in getting up to speed on what just happened in Vegas. I love residential investment real estate...it's my hobby and my passion.

Las Vegas just experienced a rapid shift from a severe seller's market to predominately a buyer's market. We now have over 5 months of inventory on the market in Southern Nevada. It's being noted as the fastest shift in history including the great recession.

Our City slogan was updated in January 2020 just before the pandemic and the timing couldn't have been more appropriate. Our slogan changed from What Happens in Vegas Stays in Vegas to....What Happens Here Only Happens Here. This statement could not be more true for our pandemic housing trends.

@David Song I'm just super fascinated by the impact a once in a lifetime pandemic had on the Vegas real estate market (and other markets like yours). I started investing in Vegas back in 2011. I bought my former primary residence as a HAP short sale for $156k and no one wanted the home. We were the only offer. The house value shot up to over $500k during the pandemic. My current residence which is a luxury home doubled in value during the pandemic. I was watching all this happen and thinking....this is not normal. What a fun time to be in real estate to watch the market shift like it has been.-Heidi

Is our market correcting or crashing? It seems the more appropriate term is that is came to a screeching halt. This has been a wild ride the last 24 months. Stats from the last 30 days for Las Vegas detached single family homes: 

Your search returned 1881 Listings.
Property Type is 'Residential'
Status is 'Sold'
Status Contractual Search Date is 08/20/2022 to 07/21/2022
Property Sub Type is 'Single Family Residential'
Ordered by Status, Area, Current Price
Found 1881 results in 0.20 seconds

Your search returned 8382 Listings.
Property Type is 'Residential'
Status is one of 'Active', 'Coming Soon'
Property Sub Type is 'Single Family Residential'

Found 8382 results in 0.20 seconds

The crazy part is the rental market is slowing at the exact. same. time.

@Marysol F.

Yes, I have experience with probates but our brokerage doesn't have the bandwidth to help Buyers right now. One of the other agents on this post would be better able to assist. I'm an investor in Las Vegas too and love investment real estate thus my activity on this site. Cheers. -Heidi

@Marysol F.

Here are some stats to help you understand our market:

The median price as of today is down an additional 4% from July...4% in 2 weeks. If the trend continues through August, the median price will be down 7.1% in just two months.

Only 3 months ago, the average closing price of a single family home was over 101% of list price. Today, it's down to 97.1%. 

I included some charts below.

iBuyers like Open Door and Zillow, institutional investors, pandemic migration, low interest rates and government policy (eviction moratoriums early on in the pandemic) helped create the unusual sales and rental market Las Vegas just experienced. Our market is slowing as post pandemic reality hits the breaks on all things housing. I believe we are all hoping for a correction rather than a crash...only time will tell. There is constant chatter about the shortage of water and I know some people who've left Vegas for this fear alone. I'm still personally invested with rental homes in Las Vegas and Henderson but I have also diversified over the past few years. 

The interesting part is I'm seeing a shift the last 30 days in rentals too. We are experiencing too much overpriced rental supply and not enough demand. A 4 bedroom house in West Summerlin 89138 3-6 months ago would have easily rented for $2,500 in 7-10 days. Now there is too much competition, rental houses are sitting on the market longer and there are price decreases in rentals too. This goes against what everyone thought would happen. I attribute it to people moving out of state post pandemic (first-hand experience w/ move-out notices the last 30-60 days) and Owners getting greedy because the media is talking about rent increases. 

The thing is rent increases already happened between Fall 2020 and Spring 2022. Rents have stabilized and/or started to feel downward pressure due to increased supply and decreased demand.

Cheers!

-Heidi

Number Of Active Single Family Listings

Here's a real world example of how our market is currently in a correction and why artificial intelligence in real estate can only get you so far.

In Q2 iBuyers overbid in Las Vegas. Open Door purchased a house in my former neighborhood (not my house) May 9th, 2022 for $742,100. List price is now $102,000 under their purchase price!!! I'm tracking this one for fun and will post final sales price once it sells (still on market).

Open Door has lowered their list price as follows:

$640,000 DOWN $682,000 -> $640,000 08/04/2022

$682,000 DOWN $715,000 -> $682,000 07/21/2022

$715,000 DOWN $737,000 -> $715,000 07/07/2022

$737,000 DOWN $754,000 -> $737,000 06/23/2022

$754,000 DOWN $790,000 -> $754,000 06/10/2022

$790,000 NEW -> A 05/26/2022

The entry level is in a downward trajectory as institutional investors have stopped purchasing. I recently listed a house for sale in a neighborhood previously swarmed by institutional investors. We priced the house slightly under recent comps as I'm aware prices are on a downward trend. Even being priced lower than recent sale comps the institutional investors said we are greater than $50,000 apart so they are not interested in writing an offer. I witnessed institutional investors first hand bidding up prices Q1 of 2021 and now I'm witnessing them first hand impacting prices Q3 of 2022. 

Institutional investors seem to be waiting for the market to correct to a more realistic price point (not crash) and then they will start purchasing again when the prices are $50,000-75,000 lower than they are now (the house I'm referencing is listed at $460,000 and I think an institutional investor would be willing to pay about $380k).

This has been such a fun market to be apart of the past 2 years and will be another one that will be reflected upon for many years to come. It's funny...back in Q1 of 2021 I was trying to make sense of our changing market and what was causing it. Most opinions came down to basic supply/demand but we now know there were other unique factors that played a role. Now it all makes sense to me: iBuyers, institutional investors and pandemic migration created a 24 month perfect storm to inflate real estate values in sunbelt regions like Las Vegas.

Cheers to my fellow investors who love this as much as I do.

-Heidi