Hi Kevin, I'm an investor here in San Rafael as well. What is the square footage, how many bedrooms and what area of San Rafael?
It's hard if not impossible to make numbers work for a hold investment on any property in this area right now. Why not flip it and wait until the market corrects to purchase your long term hold properties if you want local rental properties?
As I'm sure you know, the ARV wildly depends on what level of remodel you do. The current Marin market supports highly renovated properties. Your ARV could fluctuate by $200-$300k or more depending on what you do (or don't do). Uninspired cheap design with minimal done= so so outcome and you may actually sit on market. Go above and beyond and make them the house of their dreams (within reason) and you'll have a bidding war on your hands.
Without even knowing the area or square footage, as a person who watches the market here daily, I think that any house in San Rafael that you can get into in the 6s that isn't a tear down, is a deal.