All Forum Posts by: Greg R.

Quote from @Greg R.:

A little more from the December data dump...

• - Pending home sales were down 31.7% year over year to the lowest level on record, the 12th straight period of pending sales declining more than 30%.
• - Among the 50 most populous U.S. metros, pending sales fell the most in Las Vegas (-61.9% YoY), Jacksonville, FL (-57.4%), Phoenix (-56.9%), Austin, TX (-55.3%) and Nashville (-50.8%).
• - Active listings (the number of homes listed for sale at any point during the period) were up 20.7% from a year earlier, the biggest annual increase since at least 2015.
• - Homes that sold were on the market for a median of 44 days, the longest time period since April 2020. That’s up nearly two weeks from 31 days a year earlier and the record low of 18 days set in May.

"Home sales" is volume, not sales price. Yes, volume is down. No one is going to disagree with you on that one. If you are a real estate agent or a lender you are most likely slower in second half of 2022 than first half of 2022. 

This thread is supposed to be based on sales price, not volume.   

@Greg R.Is the rent drops for houses, duplexes, fourplexes or apartments? Redfin operates in the sfh space. Please clarify. I hope that you are shorting the market based upon your data sets.  

@Adam Christopher Zaleski That is why year over year is the best metric to use so that it accounts for seasonal differences. 

Sam Zell "When everyone is going left, look right."

Smaller houses might be a smaller price point, but smaller houses also typically cost more price per sq. ft. If the price per sq. ft. is going up, it is very possible that smaller houses are selling more often than larger houses. If houses are less affordable due to higher interest rates, it would make sense to buy smaller houses at a lower price point that are more practical. 

Nationally, prices go down almost every winter. As a result, month over month data is not very helpful. To compare apples to apples, you need year over year data. 

For my current home, I got a 7% discount because I bought it in November (280K) and not May/June (300K). After we closed, I got a chance to chat with the seller and we both agreed that he would have gotten 300K if he listed in May/June. House is now worth 380K in January 2023. One could make the argument that it might have sold for 400K in May/June 2022. However, that's not a crash. That's just normal seasonal sales variability. Prices are almost always higher in the summer and then take a small dip in the winter. The last two winters have been the exception.  

Quote from @Greg R.:

Let's not forget. Just a few hours ago you told me that I'm full of s#it for saying that RE prices nationally have gone down 10% since the peak in the summer. According to you they're actively increasing lol. 

 NOPE, not according to me, according to the DATA and facts. 

Did you suffer some TBI as a child? This has only been shown about 74 times now. Maybe Alzheimer's? 

There is pages upon pages of the data from FRED, and the MLS. Aaaand here you are, using slander again, false information again, personal attacks again.

Your pathetic, truly. 

 So according to Greg he has MORE information on the Real Estate markets than licensed real estate agents 

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Also US housing market recorded the 7th straight month of price declines, which makes a 10% price decrease nationally over the last 7 months (since the peak of the bubble.) 

 Really? Because according to the data from FRED, your full of sh#t. Please explain this. 

Lmao, this is too funny. I really do appreciate all the ammo James, you make it way too easy. Do you know the difference between monthly and quarterly - google it? Your chart stops in Q2 of 2022, which was the peak of the bubble. 

The purveyor of falsehoods strikes again!!! 

 FYI, I'm not FRED. 

Not my chart buddy. 

I'm going to try to respond in simple terms to give you the best chance of understanding. I never said "twin cities". I Provided data for Minneapolis. <<<--- Read this sentence twice. 

Now, below is median sold data per the MLS & public records for MINNEAPOLIS - NOT Twin Cities . Per this data June was the peak with a sold median price of 360k, and as of December the median sold price is 305k.

If your argument is that Redfin's reporting of data from the MLS and public records is inaccurate, please post your evidence.

Again, provide evidence that a publicly traded real estate company with a market cap of $665,000,000 is lying to the public with their reporting data. 

I'll keep an open mind. If you provide evidence, I'll stop citing data provided by Redfin. 

Here is exhibit b, data from realtor.com. Numbers aren't identical, but it shows the same in terms of June/July being the peak, and declines since then. 

So here are two very reputable sources showing a peak in June/ July, and price declines since then. 

Again, provide evidence that both realtor.com and redfin are providing inaccurate reporting data. 

 Lol, ok. 

As you can see Greg, your wrong yet again. Above is the ACTUAL data feed on Minneapolis. I even took a FULL screen-shot so you can see what an ACTUAL data feed looks like. No, your not getting a full data feed because NAR owns the data feed and we do not give it out to the public for free, nor the public in general. One must be a licensed professional to receive the actual complete data feed. Do your research.

Exactly how do you have MLS data? Are you licensed? I am a licensed. I am a R.E. Broker actually, what are you?

My data is actually from the MLS. It was noted right on the postings I made. Data via Infosparks which is the ACTUAL data feed of/from MLS. realtor.com is NOT the MLS, it's kind of directly in there name, same for Redfin, so a little Edu. for ya there.

I also posted from FRED, which is the Federal Reserve. That anyone can access. But to get the actual MLS data feed, sorry you gotta be licensed for that and have a license for access generally obtained via ones membership to localized NAR chapter, and NAR itself, like I have.

For someone who knows so little, and get's so much wrong, the aggressiveness is interesting, to say the least. Reminds me of my university days and the psyc class discussions on Malignant Narcissism. 

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @Greg R.:

Also US housing market recorded the 7th straight month of price declines, which makes a 10% price decrease nationally over the last 7 months (since the peak of the bubble.) 

 Really? Because according to the data from FRED, your full of sh#t. Please explain this. 

Lmao, this is too funny. I really do appreciate all the ammo James, you make it way too easy. Do you know the difference between monthly and quarterly - google it? Your chart stops in Q2 of 2022, which was the peak of the bubble. 

The purveyor of falsehoods strikes again!!! 

 FYI, I'm not FRED. 

Not my chart buddy. 

I'm going to try to respond in simple terms to give you the best chance of understanding. I never said "twin cities". I Provided data for Minneapolis. <<<--- Read this sentence twice. 

Now, below is median sold data per the MLS & public records for MINNEAPOLIS - NOT Twin Cities . Per this data June was the peak with a sold median price of 360k, and as of December the median sold price is 305k.

If your argument is that Redfin's reporting of data from the MLS and public records is inaccurate, please post your evidence.

Again, provide evidence that a publicly traded real estate company with a market cap of $665,000,000 is lying to the public with their reporting data. 

I'll keep an open mind. If you provide evidence, I'll stop citing data provided by Redfin. 

 Lol, ok guy. This is the very definition of "Selective Data" and "Distortion". 

Minneapolis is "A" city in the Twin Cities MN market. Sorry if THE MARKET data does not meet your pre-chosen outcome. I believe THE MARKET data is a whole lot more accurate and reflective than 1 city, who was under military occupation/security, given rampant RIOTS, Police Stations being burned to the ground, mobs running the streets for weeks on end, months really. We had highways blocked by riot mobs. Entire business districts of Minneapolis looted bare. Has the Real Estate market in Minneapolis suffered..... ah DUH. Would you like to live in Baghdad? No, neither do a lot of people. 

Minneapolis has lost about 50% of it's police force on top of all this. There is decent places in Minneapolis, a lot of pro's, but yeah it's got some extreme force factors to it buddy. 

But hey, what do I know, I am only based here in Minneapolis area, work, invest, buy, sell, advise here, I am sure some IT guy 2000 miles away knows oh-so-much-more in his selective data on the subject. (THAT's how you do snark, fyi).