@Lane Forhetz
Thanks everyone for contributing and keeping this discussion going. It's been very helpful talking (and thinking) this through. I had a professor once who said that until you can explain it in writing, you don't fully understand it. That's proven true for me many times.
@Lane Forhetz - Two things you're executing very well on: #1 Find deals @ 65% ARV. #2 Somehow acquiring and closing on a hard money loan, buying & closing on a property, rehabbing it, and getting your cash back out through a refi in six weeks. That's impressive! Well done, sir! If I can build some solid relationships with HMLs, am able to cut another three-weeks off the renovation time, and spend about $5K off the rehab costs, I'll be able to get the process down as well as you. So, I'm close to making it work-- but not quite there yet.
What kind of properties are you buying -- auctions? How are you able to close on the purchases so quickly? Are you using commercial loans for the cash-out refi?
As I've experienced it, there are two magic numbers that make a BRRRR successful. #1 Buying at 65% ARV (max!) and #2 Spending no more than 10% of the ARV on the rehab. That's the challenging part because you have to create value / equity equal to 35% of the ARV by only spending 10% of the ARV on the rehab. My experience has been more like I've spent 15% of the ARV on the rehab (and holding costs)-- so that 5% gets locked away as equity and comes out of my pocket (e.g. drains my acquisition capital).
On the property I'm currently waiting to refi, I purchased at 65% ARV, closing costs pushed it 67% ARV, I completed the reno right on target at 10% of the ARV, and holding costs + refi closing costs will push my costs to about 14% of the ARV or resulting in about $4,400 out of pocket. Not a perfect BRRRR, but if I had not invested $3K in non-essential (but important upgrades), I'd only be $1,500 out of pocket-- so that's pretty darn close to a perfect BRRRR for me! ;)
Again, I really appreciate everyone's thoughts and feedback here.