@Brian Adzadi, @Ann Bellamy, @Charlie MacPherson,
Thank you for your valuable thoughts.
The insight from Charlie that appraisers don't factor in solar panels was especially valuable. This seems like a wrong position for appraisers to take to me. It is a valuable system in a house that saves & earns significant money for the owner. I imagine appraisers take a similar position on geothermal, but if anybody knows for sure, I'd love to hear.
I do understand that the vast majority of buyers don't yet understand the value of tools like these or the cost/benefit of factoring decisions like this into a purchase. But before this post congeals into a defacto BP opinion, I thought I'd clarify a bit.
ARV's in some of the areas I'm looking at seem to be between $600K and $800K. Several of the source properties need new heating and a new central AC including duct work. So there's already a significant baseline investment here.
Let's say you could get a geothermal system installed for $50K, but the cost for new heat and central AC was something like $15K. The difference being $35K. I pick a geothermal as opposed to the mini-split Charlie mentioned because you would not need to augment the system with oil or gas since they have the power to heat at sub zero temperatures. Adding $35K to a 30 year mortgage might be an additional $175 P&I per month, but would free you from oil and gas bills all year as well as maintenance of heating and AC systems. Total annual mortgage cost would be $2100, but savings should be significantly more than that, even more when you factor in mortgage tax credits.
I'm sure you're saying, "well you just replaced your oil/gas bill with an electricity bill"... but that's where solar comes in. The right house can completely offset this with solar panels. So for an additional (say) $175 / month P&I amount, you get all the electricity you need and possibly more you can sell. So no electric bill either. So for a total of a monthly $350 additional mortgage payment, you eliminate: Oil payments, Gas payments, Electricity bills, Furnace maintenance, AC Maintenance, Chimneys sweeping, oil tanks, plumbing maintenance, etc. I believe most households do better than break even. Oh, also, once it's paid off, you continue to get all that stuff for free.
I don't expect average buyers to get this, and I wouldn't consider it in markets where there is no hope. I do think there is a growing population of people who are ready to take a second look at their carbon footprint, and if you can demonstrate the financial benefits I laid out above, I suspect they might take a 3rd look.
For this to make sense though, there are some important complexities I'm not yet equipped to navigate such as how the tax credits transfer to new owners, whether appraisers would factor this into the value to preserve mortgage integrity, whether installers have better pricing for investors, etc.
I would love for this conversation to continue! Questions and concerns are invited!