It's interesting to see how the conversation in this thread will evolve over time. So much has changed in the last two weeks and I am sure more happen as we roll forward.
In my opinion, and glimpsing back at the past recession, to which this is "similar" but not the same. The hierarchy of impact seems to be a bit different with rippling waves eventually crossing everyone's path.
So far, I have seen Non-QM capital start to dry up. There is already a pretty sizable discount pushing 15% from the market price 3 weeks ago. Notable driving forces on that are ability to repay due to unemployment and other direct affects of the pandemic and extension risk. Capitalization rates and return expectations will have to rise. We will see interest rates increase in the near term which is going to be problematic for some of the recent paper that is looking for an investor.
Warehouse lines will get squeezed and shut down. There has already been a series of redemption requests in many funds. This is going to impact longer amortized loans and even the short term folks. I have been seeing some private/hard money short term loans looking for investors so the originator can get the loan off their line. As with anything, those folks who had a tighter set of underwriting may feel safer with their borrowers than others. However, eventually, I think everyone will experience a credit crunch as we should expect values to start to decline in the near term. How the haircut will be shared or allocated, if at all, will be told soon enough.
Nonperforming paper is in a pricing limbo, obviously the moratorium is affecting that market. We know HUD has came out with direction for forbearance for FHA (90 days) and Fannie/Freddie (12 months) it's not clear if that forbearance can be applied, by mandate or judicial argument, over loans in default prior to the last 2 weeks. With both of those situations lingering the larger servicers who have a large chunk of securitized loans will have some 'massive' and I emphasize "massive" cash problems. The bondholders get their payment and the servicer foots that advance bill while still having to capitalize collections. Couple that with now uncertain default remedy timelines due to the moratorium on foreclosure, eviction along with cash for keys - we can't be certain when and how we can displace the borrowers nor are we sure the forbearance is not just a longer drive to the same danger zone.
When this all happened in the previous recession pricing loans of all kinds was very tough. Much of that pricing was dictated by the buyer as the seller's needed the cash. However, at this stage, we have a bit of an issue where seller's should dump to get their 'potentially' highest price but buyers don't want to buy to much and end up with negative equity due to a decline in real estate values or get hit with extension risk buying in below prevail market rates and returns.
So I think we will see inventory circulating and may very well see the same inventory a couple of times before it finds an executable market price. Deeper discounts will emerge and par and premium will be bad words once again. That said, there are still some plans of attack that can be deployed to exploit what is going to be a complicated mess.