I think the only meaningful number to keep your eye on is the new jobs number. As long as we're stuck at 10% for unemployment and approaching 20% for underemployment, we'll continue to tread water.
The simple fact is that for people to have more money, you need the money supply to grow, and then you need that money to be spent by the consumer. Until lately, that was done with HELOCs (to be repaid at some point when the house continued to go up in value) and credit cards.
Now, through will and/or force, consumers are scaling back their borrowing. As a result, the credit bubble is not being reinflated any time soon. And the money that they ARE spending? Well, it's the money that would otherwise go towards mortgage payments that they're no longer making, without fear of being foreclosed on, at least for the time being.
And as long as consumers are stuck in neutral, businesses will be, too. That's why they sit on trillions in cash -- because they have nowhere to put it where it will support a revenue-generating business.
IMHO, what we need at this stage is "the next big thing," and I'm thinking that needs to be in the area of domestic energy independence. (It should also be something, however, that other countries will pay us dearly to have access to. Are we or are we not a technology leader?) We need something massive that will put people back to work by the hundreds of thousands.
Without that, I think we're going to bump along at 8-10% unemployment for the next 5-7 years, at least.
Hyperinflation? Nah, probably not. Economic doomsday? Nope, don't see it. On the "gloomy" side of the equation, though, I think there's a 5-10% chance we'll have a major global conflict in the next few years. Not overly probable, but just enough that it's on my radar.
All my $0.02 -- overvalued at that.