Great discussion you started here @Thomas Cheek! I found this thread while researching how market trends have impacted 1031 exchanges and investment strategies in San Diego over the past year. I know the post is a pretty old one, but the topic is timeless, especially in a market like ours.
First, I'd like to echo @Michael McLoughlin - the sentiment about 1031 exchanges offering a direct route to deferring capital gains taxes. They can be powerful, but I’ve seen firsthand how crucial it is to plan for them strategically. For example, a client of mine decided to exchange out of a rental property in Vista into a multi-family property in North County. They purchased in 2016 for about $555,000 and recently sold for $1.25 million. The appreciation was great, but the real win came from reinvesting those gains into a property generating double the cash flow.
However, I also see the appeal of funds in certain situations. A close friend of mine, who’s also an operator, shared a story about an investor who didn’t have the time to manage a property directly but wanted exposure to the San Diego market’s growth. They joined a fund led by someone they trusted, focusing on value-add multi-family deals. It worked out well, but only because they knew the operator’s track record like the back of thier hand. If you’re considering a fund, I'd say: trust and verify.
As for market shifts, let’s talk hindsight. Back in 2015-2017, property prices in Vista and Chula Vista hovered around $500k to $600k. Fast-forward to 2024, and many of those properties are selling for over $1 million. It’s wild to think about how investors who took the plunge then have seen such substantial growth. This underscores why timing and long-term vision are key in real estate, especially here in Southern California.
Speaking of emerging opportunities, three San Diego neighborhoods I feel are becoming increasingly attractive for us investors in 2025 and beyond:
Civita (Mission Valley): A master-planned community offering sustainable urban living, with parks, mixed-use spaces, and residential developments attracting high rental demand.
East Village (Downtown San Diego): A lively, developing neighborhood with residential and commercial projects catering to urban professionals.
Barrio Logan: A revitalized cultural hotspot, ideal for investors looking for appreciation potential near downtown.
It’s wild to think how areas like these have grown over the past decade. A property in Vista that sold for $555k in 2016 is now fetching over $1.2 million... similar stories are playing out across San Diego. What’s a neighborhood you think will be the next big thing in the city? I’d love to hear what fellow investors think.
One question for the group: For those leaning toward funds, what criteria do you use to vet the operator? And for fellow investors doing a 1031 exchange, what’s your favorite neighborhoods or markets to exchange into these days?