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All Forum Posts by: Courtney Araujo

Courtney Araujo has started 2 posts and replied 10 times.

Post: Deal Analysis Spreasheet

Courtney AraujoPosted
  • Actuary
  • Norwalk, CT
  • Posts 10
  • Votes 6

I just wanted to let anyone who sees this thread know that the updated spreadsheet can be found here:

https://www.biggerpockets.com/files/user/CourtneyA...

This reflects the update to the CAP Rate formula and index of the amortization scenario. I also deleted profit from the rehab tab to avoid any confusion.

I'll be deleting the original spreadsheet so that it doesn't lead anyone astray.

Courtney

Post: Deal Analysis Spreasheet

Courtney AraujoPosted
  • Actuary
  • Norwalk, CT
  • Posts 10
  • Votes 6

@Mike Flavin thank you for your detailed reply. Broken down in the way you explained, it makes complete sense. That brings up some very interesting points when considering rehabbing rentals. Adding this to my notes, such a great wealth of information here!

Post: Deal Analysis Spreasheet

Courtney AraujoPosted
  • Actuary
  • Norwalk, CT
  • Posts 10
  • Votes 6

@Account Closed Thank you! I've made the CAP rate update. I also added this link https://www.biggerpockets.com/renewsblog/2013/03/3... as a resource next to CAP rate. I'm going to upload an updated version as I get more input. Out of curiosity why do you think the CAP rate is a useless measurement? I don't plan on investing in commercial properties anytime soon and I'm not very well versed. Is it because people rely too heavily on them and there are other measures that are better and say more about a property?

Can you elaborate on what concerns you about the hold and rent portion? Do you mean the Buy and Hold calculations don't look like they're working properly? Or there seems to be something wrong/missing with the inputs? I appreciate the comments!

Courtney

Post: Deal Analysis Spreasheet

Courtney AraujoPosted
  • Actuary
  • Norwalk, CT
  • Posts 10
  • Votes 6

I'll do my best to answer your questions, but I'm going to skip the ones where you specifically spoke about the house. This was just a sample and not real, I picked a random house and plugged numbers in. I was just trying to show the spreadsheet’s functionality. I apologize since you took the time to speak to that. The RCD and flipping chart are information for me, please ignore.

Originally posted by @Arpan Patel:

Okay there is a lot to cover so I will break it down sheet by sheet.

Inputs

1) I don't know why you have a vacancy rate for a flip
There isn't, this is 0 if it is a flip. If holding period is < 12 all rental inputs become 0 in spreadsheet. I know this is going to look like giberish on here, but for example:

Annual Expenses

=IF(C6<12,ROUND(SUM(C13:C16)*C$6+SUM(C20:C23)+C28,0),ROUND(SUM(C7:C10,C13:C16)*C$6,0))

Where C6 is holding period. C13-C16 are Insurance/Tax/Mortgage/Holding Costs (flips); C20-C23 are Purchase Costs; C7-C10 are Rental Variables (vacancy, maintenance, etc).
Hopefully this clears up the confusion.

2) Insurance will be much higher for a flip because you are getting a builders risk insurance, not a normal home owners

3) Why are there 0 holding costs? Wouldn't you have at least the mortgage and insurance even if the tenant is paying for utilities?
I'm slightly confused on this point. PITI is all factored in (Monthly Fixed costs section)

4) What is the difference between scenario 1 and 2? Just the rent number?

5) Why would the value be the same for the ARV between scenario 1 and 2 even though in scenario 1 you are dong about half in repairs?

6) Closing costs are going to be more than just the realtor fees. Remember there are prorated taxes and title and many even a lawyer or a concession
Thank you, I have this factored in on the selling side but not the buying side.

7) Why is there is a difference between 3 and 4 when both have the same repair number? Why is one scenario worth 20k more than the other when you are doing the same thing in both scenarios?

8) Does adding 25k in rehab really yield you another 45k in equity between 4 and 5?

9) Why is the interest rate on 3 different from 1 and 2? different lender?

10) Why is it the same rate for 4 and 5 and 1 and 2? 4 and 5 are flips so are you saying the lender you picked will do both models at the same rate? That doesn't sound right to me

11) How are you generating monthly income from a flip in scenarios 4 and 5? How can you lease a place that you are remodeling to flip?

These are 0 when holding period is less than 12, due to formulas.

12) Why do you have 30 year loans for you analysis for cash flow and have 10 year amortization for your actual amortization schedule?
This shows what your investment looks like if you were to sell you house in 10 years, not a loan of 10 years.

13) Why do you have realtor fees at 7% and in your analysis all closing costs are 6%

One is for purchase and one is for selling (I believe the costs are different so I thought it would be necessary to have two different numbers)

Rehab Analysis:

1) You only factored one month for your all your holding costs. That should be 6 times that number for a flip.

Holding costs on the Rehab tab are a function of the output tab and are informative only, they are on the outputs tab in the Annual Expense row (you will see it takes into account how many months held).

2) By your math you are showing a 41k loss on the house

This is confusing, I should delete that section, it’s not used. Only the output tab is used for final profit analysis.

3) Hard to evaluate scope of work with no pictures but if you aren't doing any framing then why are you doing so much duct work? You typically need to frame the vents in.

4) Hardwood costs seems low but maybe you are only doing a small rooms worth

5) Counter top installation is a bit off in my guess but maybe you have a small easy kitchen

6) Appliance installation is usually carried out by the vendor you bought it from and it is not usually 1000

7) Door knobs seems a bit low unless you are only doing a few

8) Backsplach material seems low as well

Output is visually fine but I have many questions about inputs and if they are off then your outputs will be off as wel

1) IRR looks suspect as well. If you are getting a a great debt coverage ratio then why is your IRR less than your cap rate? Something if very off

The cap rate is based off of the original purchase price of the house, which is very low in this case since it’s a distressed property. Should this be based off the ARV of the home? The IRR is the basic IRR excel function and looking at what goes into the cash flow formulas I don’t see any red flags, so maybe this is where the issue is coming from? I appreciate the input.

Why are you running your amort schedule on 28.3 years? That was not indicated anywhere else on your spreadsheet. Also I think your Amort formulas need to be checked. Not sure I like the function to have a floor function in it. Plus you are going negative at the end of the 30 years and that wouldn't make sense for a 30 year loan

This is not for the mortgage payment calculate, that uses excels basic PMT function. This is for the projection portion of the spreadsheet. The mortgage payment needed to be indexed, I’ve updated that column :). I’m not sure what you mean by a floor? I don’t see a minimum anywhere.

No idea what RCD is for

I don't understand the purpose of the flipping chart.

Thank you for your input!

Post: Deal Analysis Spreasheet

Courtney AraujoPosted
  • Actuary
  • Norwalk, CT
  • Posts 10
  • Votes 6

Hi BP! 

I've created a deal analysis spreadsheet so that I can easily do some quick and dirty number crunching when looking over deals. This spreadsheet analyzes rentals or flips. I was hoping to get some opinions on the spreadsheet to make sure I haven't missed anything. Others are welcome to use it! (make sure you audit it and give it a peer review). I hope the link/upload worked!

https://www.biggerpockets.com/files/user/CourtneyA2/file/rei-deal-analysis-spreadsheet

A brief summary of the spreadsheet:

Input Tab:
- Ability to input up to 5 scenarios.
- Red Font is formula based, all others are inputs. Scenario 1 is linked up to Rehab Analysis Tab.
- When "Holding Period" is set to 12 the scenario treats the deal as Buy&Hold, when it is less than 12 it treats it as a Flip.
- For Amort Schedule: This is for forecasting, calculates the IRR for holding on to the investment. Select which scenario you'd like to see. Projects up to 15 years.
- Property Features, not necessary, but informative and flows through to output tab.

Rehab Analysis Tab: This comes from J Scott's Rehab Analysis Spreadsheet that is on BP. This allows rehab items to be easily broken down when walking through a home and tallied up.

Output Tab:
-
Individual Components for 5 scenarios are summarized. PITI; Vacancy/Maintence/CapEx/PM; Purchase Costs; Selling Costs; Gross Monthly Income.
- Calculated Initial Return table summarizes incomes and expenses, formulas switch depending on buy/hold versus flip. I won't go into the details, but feel free to PM me if you have questions. This section includes annual Cash flow, COC ROI and Debt Service Coverage Ratio among other items. They are conditionally formatted Green/Yellow/Red to highlight income and expenses and negative and positive returns.
- Maximum Purchase Price/Rules of Thumb give quick ideas of what a property could be purchased at to be a good investment. Scenario 1 through 5 as you move from column K to O.
- Amortization and Projections calculates the IRR on the property if you were to hold it for whatever you specified on the inputs tab (up to 15 years). Start up contains all purchase and rehab information, including ARV, so it will include your new equity position. Each year going forward will have loan paydown and factor in the increased expenses/income assumptions chosen on inputs tab. Appreciation is not factored into the spreadsheet yet

I'd love to hear others' feedback! Let me know if you have any questions, I'd be more than happy to answer them.

Thanks,

Courtney

Post: New Investor in Litchfield County, CT

Courtney AraujoPosted
  • Actuary
  • Norwalk, CT
  • Posts 10
  • Votes 6

Welcome to BP! It looks like there's a growing group of Litchfield County members on here. I think it'd be great if an REI meet up got started. I've been working with my RE agent looking for MFR (turn key or ones that need to be rehabbed) and SF to flip. It seems like there's a bit of competition on the flip market. I found a great deal a few weeks ago, went on vacation, came back and it was gone. There's a lesson for you! They all disappear in a blink. I've really been struggling to find a MFR in a decent area where the numbers made sense. It seems like others are having success though!

Hopefully we can get a meetup going :)

Courtney

Post: Newbie from Norwalk, Connecticut

Courtney AraujoPosted
  • Actuary
  • Norwalk, CT
  • Posts 10
  • Votes 6

@Account Closed Thanks for the welcome! What aspect are you referring to?

Post: Newbie from Norwalk, Connecticut

Courtney AraujoPosted
  • Actuary
  • Norwalk, CT
  • Posts 10
  • Votes 6

@Andrew Syrios thanks for the Welcome, looking forward to taking the plunge! and @Paul Timmins thank you for the advice! I saw in Norwalk it looks like there is a meetup at Valencias some weeks so I'm looking to find out more details on that and attend that one. 

Post: New to Norwalk

Courtney AraujoPosted
  • Actuary
  • Norwalk, CT
  • Posts 10
  • Votes 6

Hi Alison! I am new to REI as well, but not new to Norwalk or CT, so if you have any questions about the area maybe I can help. As for your question about getting your real estate license, everything I've heard in my research, it seems like it's a pretty individual decision. I plan on getting mine. In one podcast I listened to, the couple was able to make/save 45K because the wife got her RE license. It might have been J Scotts podcast now that I'm thinking about it (Flipping 101).

Here are some links on pros/cons getting a real estate license:

https://www.biggerpockets.com/renewsblog/2010/02/2...

https://www.biggerpockets.com/renewsblog/2014/02/1...

https://www.biggerpockets.com/renewsblog/2014/04/1...

Best of luck. (And maybe see you around!)

Courtney

Post: Newbie from Norwalk, Connecticut

Courtney AraujoPosted
  • Actuary
  • Norwalk, CT
  • Posts 10
  • Votes 6

Hi Everyone! 

I've been lurking on BP for a while now. I listen to multiple podcasts a week (I'm addicted!), have watched a few webinars, have read quite a few of the recommended REI books, and have a laundry list of others to read. I'm currently almost finished listening to Rich Dad, Poor Dad on audio - that's what kicked me in the butt to get moving.

My story is probably similar to many. I work for Corporate America. Hard work isn’t valued or recognized and my blood, sweat, and tears make someone else richer while I don’t see any of it. No. Thank. You. I am an actuary, so to me “risk is opportunity” (that’s my org’s slogan). Managing risk is what I do, so why not stop working for somebody else and start minding my own business.

I have lived in Norwalk for a little over 2 years now, my boyfriend for 7. Both of us are originally from Litchfield County, Connecticut (Torrington/Harwinton) specifically. My plan is to eventually get my real estate license, but right now my boyfriend’s Aunt is a real estate agent and his mom works for her part time, so we plan to use that connection. We’re unsure of where we want to start investing (i.e. Norwalk or back home in T-Town). The end goal is to build up a portfolio of rental properties to create income producing assets, using flips as a means to fund new buy and hold purchases. BUT, I have about a million plans in my head. Maybe it’s because I’m an actuary, but I might be running models in my brain depending on how the market could turn and as I continually learn more from what I read and hear on podcasts.

We just renovated our current home. It was a great learning experience dealing with contractors, going through a major renovation, and playing with design. We didn't have any plans of selling the house in the near future. But who knows… At the current moment I think we should sell it and start building our REI portfolio.

As you can tell I'm passionate, analytic, and kind of a fireball (maybe crazy?). I'm ready to get going with REI. Thank you BP for all the wealth of knowledge you provide!

Courtney