Wow these are all excellent replies, I'm so grateful for your help.
The common thread has been that I need to get a job, and I could not agree more.
It is extremely frustrating to not be bringing in income.
Tech can be a difficult industry due to the turnover both of jobs and skill sets.
I have been using this time to update my skills by working on several new code projects, as I always do when I have a break.
Another good and recurring point was my low cash reserves.
It definitely has me feeling nervous.
Maybe I could cash out some equity as a last resort, hopefully it will not come to that.
The main reason my reserves are so low (aside from the layoff) is that I had to extend myself in order to get the home ready for rental.
I did a lot of upgrades in a short time and then moved out of state, which was also somewhat costly.
All in all I have few regrets given the way the timing of everything worked out.
@David Zeek The house does not have an HOA, and since I'm self managing it (so far) PM is also zero.
I had taken Vacancy into account in my initial calcs, but with Cap Ex you have touched on a blind spot in my calculations.
I will work on a spreadsheet to get a better handle on that, but to summarize:
Most interior systems, water heater, appliances are new enough that I'm not worried about them.
The roof was replaced in 2006.
The central AC system is the biggest liability on my mind due to the fact that it uses the old coolant and will have to be redone when it finally fails.
I've mitigated this by recently replacing capacitors in the outdoor AC unit as well as the blower motor and its capacitors inside the furnace.
Correct me if I'm wrong but it seems like the price of this home may actually be an advantage in terms of capex because the cost of a given repair isn't as large of a percentage of the value of the property as whole.
In other words if I have to spend $10k on a new furnace, it seems like I'd rather be putting it into a $500k house than a similarly sized $200k house somewhere else.
Your point about my stagnant equity is exactly why I'm posting here.
As soon as I feel that it's relatively safe to do so, I'd like to start leveraging out.
In the mean time I will self educate and plan.
@Whitney Hutten You make some very interesting and unexpected points.
At this point I'm intimidated by non traditional financing but I do plan to learn a lot more before I make my next purchase.
I've been thinking quite a bit about partnering with more experienced investors as it seems like a great way to gain mentorship as well as to maximize the success of the investment.
At this early stage my portfolio is fragile and I can't afford to make big dumb mistakes.
At the very least I do not want to make another RE purchase until I'm feeling really solid on my network and education, not to mention the recovery of the economy.
The question of whether to sell or hold has tormented me for years.
There is one other factor I neglected to mention in my OP that made me decide to hold the property, for at least a year or two longer:
This home is within throwing distance of a major city overhaul project that is drastically improving the area immediately surrounding it.
It's been transforming a creepy downtown area that previously you would not want to walk at night (or even the daytime) into a bustling mixed use community.
The project has been going on for years and right now is finally in progress in the blocks visible from my house.
Also the house has easy freeway access, and is positioned within 10 minutes of an extremely expensive beach area.
It's within easy commuting distance to a small but growing tech/industrial hub, and they're running out of open land to build fancy developments nearby.
(My renters work in that hub.)
Whether all of this will actually pay off is far beyond my ability to guess but based on what I've been watching happen in the neighborhood I've been hesitant to let it go just yet.
My hesitation has grown my equity by around 35k over the last year, though I suspect that could soon be erased due to covid.
Admittedly this is all speculative but my gut feeling is that this home could appreciate significantly in the coming years.
Your point about tenant friendliness is interesting to me and one that I've been reading and thinking about.
I have not yet come across any specific laws in California that I felt were difficult to comply with.
My home is inside the limits of a smaller city with a deverloper-friendly local government, which is part of the reason for the massive redevelopment of downtown.
Admittedly I'm not as informed as I could be on this so if you're aware of specific laws that may become a problem for me in that region please clue me in.
@Theresa Harris I agree, I definitely want to have a job before moving on to my next investment. As far as contracting, that's always been part of my diet and I am putting myself out there for freelance work as well. Due to changing tech my major specialization is going out of favor so I am once again looking at reinventing my career.
@Chris Wilson I'm not sure if I'll ever be a MS/FAANG employee but I guess it could happen. My background and job prospects tend to be SMB SAAS.
Sammamish itself is far beyond my price range but in general I do like the areas surrounding the eastside tech hub (Bothell, Mill Creek, Redmond, etc.) Given my price range and desire to buy a duplex, more likely I would be looking at the northern end of the region I mentioned (Marysville, Burlington, Mt. Vernon, Bellingham etc.) These areas are more accessible for me but more dubious in terms of local economy.
@Mark Frattini Thanks for the warm welcome and excellent advice. I will definitely keep you in mind in case I decide to make any moves in SD.
@Forrest Faulconer I agree about timing, and it seems to me that the major impact of the pandemic to the RE market is still ahead of us.
The question on my mind is whether (and to what extent) the impact can (or will) be mitigated by government intervention.