I posted a month ago that I was seeing weakness in the south Denver/Co Springs rental markets, now that weakness has spilled over into price reductions on homes for sale of 5-8% already relative to what they were asking a month ago. That's significant, especially when annualized, though a portion of it is likely to be seasonal.
One thing that Trumponomics seems to forget (love him or hate him) is the significant impact that labor supply has on GDP. When you hit full employment as we have now, it puts a significant dampener on GDP growth. This claim of 4%+ sustained gdp is frankly ludicrous, 3% is as good as it'll get on a sustained basis but even that's a stretch. Add in raising rates and things can head south quickly.
Let's also not forget that the average wage has lagged cost of living since what, the late 70's? Birth rates are dropping. Deficit is massive at all levels of government. If we don't have a "crash" we'll at least have a significant slowdown, but 9 out of 10 times these days that means a crash since zero bound interest rates have created speculation in just about every asset. Nobody wants to be left holding the bag and many assets can be sold in an instant.
Personally I think something will trigger a cascade effect in the markets sooner rather than later. This leads to uncertainty and contracted 401k's/savings, lower consumer spending, layoffs, and that's all it takes to trigger a major recession. It doesn't take much when investors are skittish, and they are. One of the best measures of investor confidence is the uniformity of speculation... are all asset classes rising at once? If yes, then confidence is high and asset values tend to remain relatively stable and climb. If no, as we've been seeing with sector rotation in and out of stocks like FANG and semiconductors, as well as a divergence btwn corporate and govt bonds, confidence is cracking and downside risk becomes much higher.
I'm betting this is the top, and if it isn't I don't suspect home prices are going anywhere too fast, certainly not like they have in the last two years.