@Barry W Bahr Hey Barry! Just a couple quick thoughts: seems a bit tight with an all in budget of $194,875 and ARV of $225,000. With it being sold AS-IS, that makes me think there may be some potential roof, foundation or mechanical hiccups. You've only got a $15,000 margin and no 'contingency' budgeted which would not make me feel great on a flip, especially 'AS-IS'. 90 days of work with $195k in expenses and only a potential top end payout of $15,000 if NOTHING goes wrong, may not be the best bang for your buck.
As a reference, I typically target a 30% market up on total expenses for a flip- including a contingency budget of at least 10% the rehab cost. My numbers would look a little like this:
Purchase: $161,851 , Rehab: $30,000 , Contingency: $3,000 , Carrying: $3,024 = $197,875 TOTAL EXPENSES
Minimum ARV must be: TOTAL EXPENSES of $197,875 plus 30% MARK UP = $257,238. This is what I would have to be able to resell the property for to buy it at the numbers you've listed.
If your comps don't validate a $257,238 ARV, I wouldn't buy the deal at that price. You could back into your purchase price number though by taking your confirmed ARV of $225k and dividing out the 30% mark up to get your TOTAL EXPENSES number of $173,076 less rehab, contingency and carrying costs = Purchase must be $137,052.
Sorry for the info dump, but hope it's helpful for you!
Conner