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All Forum Posts by: Christian Belleque

Christian Belleque has started 9 posts and replied 54 times.

Post: Need a quick analysis PLEASE!

Christian BellequePosted
  • Fullerton, California
  • Posts 55
  • Votes 21
Originally posted by @Andrew Syrios:

I don't know that market and I know Southern California is crazy expensive, but that still seems very tight to me especially since it needs some work.

I stayed in a house last year that was $3,100/month for 4 beds 2 baths. It was a little nicer but it wasn't worth $175/month better. It is ridicously expensive here especially considering the property is only 2 miles away from the beach and 2 from the school.

Post: Need a quick analysis PLEASE!

Christian BellequePosted
  • Fullerton, California
  • Posts 55
  • Votes 21
Originally posted by @Andrew Syrios:
Originally posted by @Christian Belleque:

I would have my vacancy rates near 5% because I would have 12 month leases for students that are always coming back every year. The house is listed at 399,999. You have to realize it is in Southern California and not in the middle of Kansas.

At $399,999, the $2600/month would only amount to about a 0.65% rent to cost. I agree with John that your NOI will probably be around $15,000, which would make for only about a 4 cap and probably wouldn't cash flow with a loan. I think it's too expensive.

I would have $3,600/month. 6 rooms at $600 each

Post: Need a quick analysis PLEASE!

Christian BellequePosted
  • Fullerton, California
  • Posts 55
  • Votes 21

In talking to the Agent, I learned that the sellers are investors themselves and just want to get out of the property to invest in something else. I took this as a hint that they would take a deep discount on the property if it meant a quick closing. I would say around 350-375K

Post: Need a quick analysis PLEASE!

Christian BellequePosted
  • Fullerton, California
  • Posts 55
  • Votes 21
Originally posted by @Mike D'Arrigo:

@Christian Belleque 

Not to be cynical but you're probably more responsible than most. Most college students your age aren't thinking about investing in real estate. They're thinking about the party they're going to this weekend. Having parents co sign might help but you can't always assume that the parents are anymore responsible. Bad tenant behavior comes in all ages. I may be overly pessimistic but my experience with duplexes has taught me to be ultra conservative on my projections. Having said that, every market is different and I don't know your market.

Those concerns are probably well deserved and are noted by me. It is funny because I played baseball my whole college career and only stayed with baseball roommates and we seemed to be pretty well behaved. Especially for a team who's nickname is the "Dirtbags". So your biggest problem with this property is the fact that it is college students and the vacancy expectation is low?

Post: Preforeclosure Selections

Christian BellequePosted
  • Fullerton, California
  • Posts 55
  • Votes 21
Originally posted by @Curt Davis:

Well for starters do you plan to actually buy the home from the owner who is far behind on their property and on the verge of being foreclosed on?  I hope so bc I would think it would be a crummy move to try and " flip " a pre foreclosure when that person is hoping you are going to buy the home and save them unless you tell them up front you have no intentions on buying but rather try and help them sell it. 

Good luck

My intentions would to pay their property debt and give them some money for their equity in the property and help them move. I would literally help them move stuff onto and off of trucks. It would have to be a house by house basis to see if I would keep it for rental or "flip" it. But I would give them full disclosure in what I would potentially do with their house and if they weren't fine with it I wouldn't do a deal with them. I'm not trying to rip people off but find a solution for both of our needs.

Post: Need a quick analysis PLEASE!

Christian BellequePosted
  • Fullerton, California
  • Posts 55
  • Votes 21
Originally posted by @Mike D'Arrigo:

@Christian Belleque 

I think you're fooling yourself if you're using 5% for vacancy rates even with 12 month leases. Duplexes are notorious for high vacancy rates especially with college students. I would use at least a 10% factor and that might be on the low side.

Even with parent cosigners? I have lived in several houses while being in college, all being 12 month leases with roommates and everyone has paid for all 12 months. There needed to be a 1 month notification if anyone was moving out. Maybe I am being foolish but those numbers come from my experience in my area.

Post: Need a quick analysis PLEASE!

Christian BellequePosted
  • Fullerton, California
  • Posts 55
  • Votes 21

Oh and to add, I have talked to a private mortgage company already. being 22 and using it as investing, I would need between 25-30% down. I have talked to people who would be able to put up some money for the down payment. I would rather work hard on a property and learn the process and potentially wholesale it if I can get a great deal then do nothing at all and run my wheels trying to get financing for a place that has just been sold.

Post: Need a quick analysis PLEASE!

Christian BellequePosted
  • Fullerton, California
  • Posts 55
  • Votes 21

I would have my vacancy rates near 5% because I would have 12 month leases for students that are always coming back every year. The house is listed at 399,999. You have to realize it is in Southern California and not in the middle of Kansas.

Post: Need a quick analysis PLEASE!

Christian BellequePosted
  • Fullerton, California
  • Posts 55
  • Votes 21
Originally posted by @Jon Holdman:

You have seriously underestimated your expenses.  You've missed taxes and insurance, which you are guaranteed to have every month.  IDK if you're using a PM, but if so, you will have that every month.    You will have ongoing routine maintenance and make ready costs between tenants.  You will have periodic big expenses like roofs and appliances.  You have a chance of having major tenant damage or a lengthy, expensive eviction.

Your $24K number is the "net operating income".  A better estimate of that would be $15,600 if using a PM, $20K if not.  If you're not using a PM, then realize you are earning the difference between those numbers by doing the PM's job.

If rents were to be $600/room/month, $43,200 would be the total income. Minus the PITI which would estimate to $24,000/year (that's being conservative) leaves $19,200/year. Take 50% for expenses and reserves and major renovations and that leaves $9,600/year. taxes would take out another 4-5 thousand(conservative again) leaving $4,600-$5,600/year. Am I missing something else? that would cashflow between $350-$450/month.

Post: Need a quick analysis PLEASE!

Christian BellequePosted
  • Fullerton, California
  • Posts 55
  • Votes 21
Originally posted by @Nathan Emmert:

You don't pay property taxes?  You don't have to pay insurance?  Those electric and gas bills look low for my area but maybe California is different.  Are you going to use a management company or do everything yourself?

Being a student at the same University, I feel like I know the market much better than anyone around and I know what is acceptable and what can be done in the area. Student housing just seems to be the better, more profitable way in this house that is about 2 miles away from one of the largest universities in the state.