@Brian HughesThanks for the reply. We would like to hold onto the property for a while – it was a house hack so we have owner occupied rates, and the property is ~ ½ mile north of the Othello Light Rail Station between MLK and Rainier, in a stable area on a quiet side street surrounded by SFH. No homeless issues, and most properties are in OK condition or better. The lot is just inside the border of an area recently up-zoned to Residential Small Lot (no minimum lot size, 1 DU per 2k sqft). The lot is about 7ksqft, flat, with easy access to the back portion – we can add another unit, or 2 if we can purchase a portion of a nearby lot or the alley.
Redevelopment in our immediate area is a mix. Most are straight remodels or tear-down rebuilds as SFH, but several owners added back-yard cottages, and 2-3 properties have sub-divided and remodeled the original SFH and built townhomes on the other lot. I talked to my realtor, and he confirmed we're on the bubble for whether the current building is ‘economically obsolete'. The way the home is configured it doesn't make sense as a SFH, and all MF construction has been large complexes. There aren't many duplexes in the area to really know what the resale value is as a solid updated duplex.
Looking at it from a MF investor standpoint, with a conservative expense budget that includes full capex, maintenance, vacancy, WSG, and property management NOI would be about $2,000 once I bring the rents up to market (est rent at $2,500 ea, currently getting $2,100), or $2,700 NOI with an added unit in the basement (est rent at $1,200/mo). We appraised a year ago for slightly over 800k. With a solid rehab (structural repairs certified by structural engineer, rehabbed units, new deck, porch. roof, and basement apartment) I'd need the resale value to be about 950k to break even. Does that seem realistic in the Seattle market?
@Sherief Elbassuoni - Right now the property cash-flows slightly after budgeting for property management (my earlier numbers excluded capex and property management to get a sense of the monthly funds available for rehab). We manage the property ourselves, but I don't want to be forced to. Due to the neighborhood's appreciation we have about 50% LTV, so the equity is there. If we finance a rehab we'd be cash flow negative with property management. Adding a basement unit the rent would cover the rehab financing if we do a 30 year Home Equity Loan, but not much left at the end of the month. If we go with a shorter term we'd be slightly negative.
I’d have no issues if the rehab added to the resale value by the same amount or more. I'd have more confidence in the future value, and in the meantime I'd save on maintenance and repairs. But whether I'd actually increase the value enough is my biggest unknown. If not, with conservative assumptions about rent increases I only make back the original investment over a 10-20 year period by adding a basement unit. Just doing a rehab and not adding the unit I wouldn't make the money back without added appreciation.