Originally posted by @Joe Daigle:
Casey, you are a very astute person. And I’m sure you have good intentions. But the moratorium isn’t for just the low-end renters. That’s phooey!
We have rentals in providence and summerlin. And we are sensing and seeing the coming fallout from —loss of income (job reduced hours) and career changes ( job is completely gone) Currently the rents are still being paid. But as an investor it’s looking pretty scary
Right now there’s a lot of casino properties that are still closed—-encore, palazzo, half of station casinos etc. Also most tour companies aren’t operating or barely operating. These are the jobs that most Las Vegans hold. And they pay well.
But with tourism down more than 50% ( 45 million visitors in 2019/ 19 million tourists in 2020). We are hoping for the best but very much aware of the worst.
Remember Las Vegas is a boom bust type town.
Hi Joe. I didn’t see your comment earlier. When I said the eviction moratorium mostly affects the lower end rentals, I meant as in those folks are the most vulnerable and therefore much more likely to be unable to pay due to job loss. Those were the only ones in my portfolio who couldn’t pay when this started. Also some more likely to want to “stick it to the man”. Stats also show those are the ones most affected.
I didn’t mean the moratorium doesn’t apply to all. Of course it does. However the average to higher end renters are more likely to have some kind of backup, more likely to correctly file for unemployment in a timely manner, more likely to care more about their credit etc. I haven’t had a single tenant not pay in close to a year, and by now those who lost income got on unemployment months ago. The risk with them now, is if unemployment doesn’t get extended again.
That seems unlikely since the Dcrew is reportedly pushing another round of funding through Congress, with an unemployment extension through August 29 + $400 weekly bonus. I am acutely aware of the mass unemployment issue here in Las Vegas and the extended low tourism etc. However vaccines are rolling out, more bailout money seems inevitable, restrictions are loosening, and more properties are announcing opening dates.
I was here for the last two crashes post 9/11 and 2007-12. March 2020 was really scary because town looked as dead after shutdowns as it did immediately following the 9/11 disaster. I drove down the Strip about 10pm that night and only saw one car in the distance ahead of me. I took a few drives down the Strip last year and it was equally unnerving.
I totally know what you're saying about this being a boom and bust town. In the last 2 crashes, I watched as businesses and construction just halted, equipment sitting on jobsites, abandoned homes all over town, people packing up whatever they could stuff in vehicles and driving off, often in the middle of the night. I had friends who just up and left. Around 2010-12 there were some condo communities that had so many abandoned units they would jack up HOA fees on remaining owners in effort to stay afloat. I drove through some that looked like half the community was boarded up. Crazy times.
What’s different this time is extended unemployment and rental assistance, including for the self employed folks who couldn’t get such assistance when their jobs were killed before. I can’t predict the future but it doesn’t look like this one will be as bad as the last one. And this is different from what I thought last March, before they started passing all the assistance for displaced workers. I wish I had a crystal ball. But for now I’m cautiously optimistic overall.
