All Forum Posts by: Caroline Davis

• Did you know?
• Huntsville ranks #3 in the south for tech jobs.
• Huntsville ranks #2 overall for tech employment growth with an incredible 53.4%.
• Huntsville ranks #4 in overall tech job earnings, averaging $102,545 annually.
• Huntsville ranks #1 in quality of life with a 1.8% unemployment rate and low cost of living.
• Just thought I would share.

Huntsville is the best place for families to live in the Uni...

Just thought I would share this news about Huntsville, AL.

Huntsville is the best place for families to live in the United States, according to U.S. News and World Report.

The news magazine’s rating is out today, ranking cities according to affordability, quality of life and job markets.

The ranking takes into account not just the cost of living and average annual salary, but quality of high school education, average commute time, crime rates, health care access and other factors.

Huntsville edged out San Jose, Calif.; Green Bay, Wisc.; Fayetteville, Ark. and the Minneapolis-St. Paul area.

The magazine notes that Huntsville’s median annual salary is above the national average, but residents spend about 19.62% of their median annual household incomes on the cost of living.

According to U.S. News, Huntsville is the fourth most affordable metro area out of the 150 areas on the list, and ranked 25th for its relatively low risk of extreme weather or natural disasters.

It’s not the first honor the publication has bestowed upon the Rocket City.

In 2022, Huntsville was rated the nation’s best place to live by U.S. News & World Report, climbing to the top of the ratings after being listed No. 3 in 2021.

Source: Huntsville is the best place for families to live, according to US News and World Report AL.com (August 16, 2023)

Just thought I would share this great article.

https://huntsvillebusinessjour...

The Rocket City is experiencing a multifamily boom more explosive than has ever been experienced.

As of December 31, 2022, our independent research indicates a total of 62 apartment communities comprising 14,685 units were actively under construction, while more than 30 other properties comprising 9,479 units were in planning.

For an area with a total apartment supply of approximately 33,000 units, the apartment market is on track to increase approximately 45% within the next two years.

These properties are spread across Madison County and portions of East Limestone County, excluding the City of Athens, and the majority are located in the City of Huntsville. A surge of just over 7,300 of units broke ground within the past 4-5 months.

Based on those 62 properties underway, we believe approximately 6,000 units will be delivered for occupancy in 2023 with between 8,000 and 9,000 units delivered in 2024.

For context, our data indicates 2,241 units in 21 properties were delivered for occupancy in the market in 2022 with 2,016 units in 11 properties delivered in 2021.

The last two years reflected dramatically higher unit deliveries than any year on record. The preceding three “lean years” with 627 units delivered in 2020, 797 units in 2019 and 142 units in 2018 allowed the local apartment market to strengthen dramatically, leading to record high rent growth and occupancy.

What’s triggering this explosion in apartment development activity? While the answer includes a myriad of factors, the answer primarily comes down to:

• Jobs, jobs, jobs – coupled with a surge in population to fill open positions
• A severe housing shortage existed in 2020 and 2021
• Strong apartment market fundamentals (i.e., high rent growth and high occupancy rates)
• Low barriers to entry and easy/cheap money

Huntsville’s status as one of the nation’s most well-educated STEM cities has been a prime attractor of major employers and their staffing needs, resulting in a doubling of the Huntsville Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA) annual population growth rate over the past five years.

The pandemic triggered a population migration across the country, helping to fuel Huntsville’s growth as it offers a great quality of life, high-paying jobs and easy access to abundant outdoor and cultural activities.

These attributes helped secure Huntsville’s rating as the No. 1 “Place to Live in the Country” by U.S. News and World Report in mid-2022, adding more fuel to the explosive growth and providing confidence for future growth.

Plentiful, easy-to-develop land and historically low interest rates are also strong attractors to developers seeking to supply the healthy demand being generated by the economic growth.

A 2019 study by Deloitte forecasted a need for 35,000 additional jobs over the following three to four years. The major economic accelerators include advanced manufacturing, aerospace, defense, biotech and virtually any technology-related job.

As of year-end 2022, major job recruiting websites reported there were up to 18,000 unfilled jobs in the Huntsville area. This, coupled with record-low unemployment near 2 percent, highlights the huge need for additional in-migration to fill the jobs.

These moves will also be needed to fill apartments, as industry source RealPage reported Huntsville’s demand for apartments totaled approximately 2,100 units in both 2022 and 2021 (which were record years for apartment absorption).

Given the sheer magnitude of the apartment pipeline underway, contrasted with the historical demand which falls significantly short of the supply being added, there is cause for concern for apartment owners and developers.

Huntsville’s population and household growth will need to continue to accelerate in the next two years to absorb all of the new units. Luckily, many of the largest employment drivers are already under construction or recently completed with considerable new staffing needed.

Anticipation is high for additional large-scale employment announcements, including the likely move of the U.S. Space Command.

However, any major slow-down in employment gains could be problematic for the apartment sector which is already beginning to feel the impact of the new supply with 18 properties in lease-up.

While Huntsville’s apartment market has entered uncharted waters, the area’s economic growth is exciting and robust, with new construction of retail, restaurants, nightlife, music venues and mixed-use developments almost everywhere you drive.

It is an exciting time for Huntsville’s residents, developers and investors alike and the employment outlook and potential for growth is unprecedented.

Optimism abounds in the Rocket City.

This is a guest post by David Wilson, MAI. Wilson is an apartment broker and Senior Director for Berkadia Real Estate Advisors’ Alabama office in Birmingham, Alabama. A resident of Huntsville for the past 30 years, David is also a former apartment appraisal specialist and apartment market housing analyst who has been statistically tracking and reporting on Huntsville’s apartment market regularly since 1995. The data within the article is from David’s first-hand research and in-depth analysis of the Huntsville market.

April 3, 2023/in Community Development, Economy, Featured, Housing, Lead, News, Real Estate, Resource/by Marie Johnson

The latest weekly report from the Huntsville Area Association of Realtors (HAAR), dated for the week ended March 18, demonstrates that the inventory of homes for sale in Huntsville/Madison County has continued to increase.

The inventory of single-family units saw a 92% increase, up to 2,508 homes, while townhouses and condo units saw a 66% increase, up to 115.

Monthly reporting from February put the month-supply increases of single-family units up by 140% last month, up to 2.4 months’ supply, while townhouse/condo units increased 125%, up to 2.7 months’ supply.

While new listings have decreased for both single-family and condo units – by 16.2% and 50% respectively, pending sales have either picked up slightly, in the case of single-family units, or remained flat.

A new report from Realtor.com posits a nationwide shortage of 6.5 million single family homes. The report compared the number of households formed in the decade from 2012 to 2022 against the number of homes built in that same period of time.

15.6 million new households were formed over that decade, while only 9.03 million single family homes were constructed over that same time. When multi-family household starts, which compromised 35% of new households started in 2022, that deficit drops to approximately 2 million houses.

What this demonstrates is that Americans have adapted to housing prices by altering the arrangements by which they procure shelter. Whether it’s by adult children remaining with their parents, even as they themselves have children, or by unrelated adults banding together to pool their resources for shelter, the economic pressures of housing have altered the makeup of many American households.

The demand for housing remains high, both nationally and here in Huntsville specifically. The pending sales figures indicate that the decrease of sales has come to an end, and with mortgage rates appearing to stabilize and an anticipated spring pickup around the corner, April should be a brisk month for those looking to buy or sell residential real estate.

Keep reading the Huntsville Business Journal, as we keep track of these develops across the real estate market.

Tags: City of Huntsville, HAAR, Huntsville Area Association of Realtors, Realtor.com, Resource, State of Alabama

February 20, 2023/in Community Development, Economy, Featured, Lead, News, People, Resource, Small Business, Success, Workforce Development/by Ashlyn Grey

The Huntsville/Madison County Chamber Foundation has renewed its partnership for 2023 with the national Best Place for Working Parents® program, offering real-time designations to businesses of all sizes whose family-friendly policies qualify through a first-of-its-kind, 3-minute online self-assessment.

The Huntsville/Madison County Chamber Foundation’s partnership offers local business leaders the opportunity to instantly determine whether their organization qualifies to earn a Best Place for Working Parents® designation, positioning them among the leading family-friendly businesses in the U.S.

In 2022, more than 90 local companies earned the designation. The Huntsville/Madison Chamber invites all to take the assessment again for 2023, as there is no cost to complete the survey.

While family-friendly policies have a direct impact on working parents, local and national research proves there is also a serious business case to being family-friendly:

• 83% of millennials would leave one job for another with stronger family-friendly support.
• Replacing an employee costs an employer six to nine months of that employee’s salary.
• Over 60% of working parents said childcare issues have caused them to miss work.
• Employers lose $13 billion annually due to childcare challenges faced by their workforce.

Lyndsay Ferguson, Executive Director of the Chamber Foundation, leads this effort for The Chamber.

“The Chamber Foundation is proud to partner in this program that provides best practices, research, and data to local employers who are looking for ways to best support their workforce. We share the belief that every child, family, and business deserve the opportunity to thrive. Attracting and retaining top talent, maintaining a thriving and productive culture, and building a sustainable workforce pipeline for the future is critical to the success of our community,” Shared Ferguson.

Ferguson also explained why family-friendly business practices are crucial for the continued growth of Huntsville’s community.

“Childcare is really a two-generation issue – it not only affects our current workforce and their ability to work, but access to high quality child care also lays a critical foundation for children, the workforce of the future. Investing in this effort today is also an investment in our future. The Chamber Foundation exists to ensure the growth of Huntsville by supporting the education and workforce talents here. We aim to align resources that address employment opportunities and challenges in Huntsville/Madison County and improve the quality of life for all residents. As our community continues to grow, it has become increasingly apparent that access to quality child care is a critical component in our mission,” Ferguson continued.

National research reveals that there is a serious business case to being family friendly.

The Best Place for Working Parents™ partnered with SMU’s Center on Research and Evaluation (CORE) to survey 825 families and working parents in May 2021 to learn what will constitute the “new world of work” – and what employees and employers need to know in order to thrive in the post-COVID environment.

“We believe there is a serious business case to being family friendly. That can look different for different businesses, but many don’t know where to start. This partnership allows companies to assess where they are today and to benchmark against companies in similar sizes and industries to identify ongoing opportunities to meet the unique needs of their workforce,” stated Ferguson.

Compared to their competitors, great workplaces win when it comes to revenue growth, employee retention, productivity, innovation, resilience, agility, customer service, and employee engagement.

Many employers surveyed their employees over the last year to find out how they could support their workforce during a particularly trying time for families and working parents. The need for childcare is not just a desired “perk” for today’s working parents – but has emerged as a necessity that impacts performance, attendance, and engagement at work.

The effects of childcare issues are not limited to a specific demographic or industry – the majority of our survey respondents indicated their work life has been negatively affected due to breakdowns in child care.

As business leaders consider options to support the 84% of working parents that need full time childcare today, it is helpful to understand specifically what parents are looking for when it comes to care. The top priorities for the working parent respondents when choosing a childcare setting included:

• Safe and clean setting
• Quality of the Provider
• Close to Home
• Student Learning

In a post-COVID work world, many parents (and specifically women) are seeking childcare and family-friendly solutions that will allow them to reenter the workforce, while a vast majority of currently employed workers (80%) are echoing the need for intentional family-friendly policies in order to stay in their current jobs.

Child Care assistance, flexibility, and other family-friendly practices are increasingly becoming a strategic lever for employers of all sizes who are seeing the direct correlation between these policies and the strength, success, and sustainability of their workforce.

While childcare is one of the top needs that employees share, for getting back to work, supporting the fragile child care industry requires innovation of its own. Post COVID recovery for childcare small business owners is daunting as they work to make up for lost revenue, increased PPE and sanitation costs, and unpredictable enrollment rates.

When replacing an employee costs a business 6 to 9 months of that employee's salary, the ROI becomes clear. Family-friendly policies are not just good for working parents – they are beneficial for businesses who seek to maintain a competitive advantage by attracting, retaining, and developing a top-flight workforce both for today and for the future.

The Best Place for Working Parents® is a growing network of business leaders proving that family-friendly is business-friendly. Originating in Fort Worth, Texas, The Best Place for Working Parents® effort is expanding across the state and nationwide, supporting businesses with research-backed strategies that benefit working parents and businesses’ bottom line.

https://huntsvillebusinessjour...

February 1, 2023/in Community Development, Economy, Featured, Lead, News, People, Resource, Success, Workforce Development/by Noah Logan

The Rocket City appears to be starting off 2023 on the same note that it ended on in 2022. The city, which was already singled out as one of the best places to live, is also predicted to be in the top five of the country’s most prosperous cities in 2023.

This prediction comes from a study completed by MyElisting.com which ranked all of the country’s metros with a population of at least 200,000 people. The 227 qualifying areas were each ranked based on 6 different metrics determined as the most important in indicating a prosperous city by the website. Those metrics were:

• The 5-year percent change in population growth
• The 5-year percent change in median household income;
• The 5-year percent change in the value of owner-occupied homes;
• The unemployment rate in 2022;
• The percentage of the population with a bachelor’s degree or higher in 2021; and
• Population rate below the poverty line in 2021.

Each city was ranked in each of the above metrics, and then given a final ranking based on the combined average of ranking position for each individual metric.

In the website’s rankings, Huntsville is slotted in as the fourth most prosperous city and is the only Alabama city to make the top 25. Mobile, with its population decline and 18% poverty rate, did make an appearance in the website’s rankings for 25 least prosperous cities for 2023.

According to the analysis, Huntsville had experienced a 9% population growth over the last five years, the median household income had increased 25% along with value of owner-occupied homes going up 20% over the same time period.

The analysis also reported Huntsville having an incredibly low unemployment rate of only 2% in 2022 while 43% of its residents have at least one college degree. The city’s poverty rate was 10% in 2021.

The other metros joining Huntsville in the top five include the Provo-Orem metro area in Utah, Boise City in Idaho, Fayetteville in Arkansas and the Austin, Texas metro at number five.

Data for the study was sourced from the U.S. Census ACS 1 and 5-year estimates, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics metro unemployment rates. The complete study can be viewed online by following the link here.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/0...

PUBLISHED MON, JAN 9 202311:11 AM ESTUPDATED MON, JAN 9 20236:57 PM EST
By Diana Olick

Mortgage rates are still twice what they were a year ago, but home prices have been falling since June, and that’s finally making consumers feel better about what had been an overheated, highly competitive housing market.

A monthly housing sentiment index from Fannie Mae showed sentiment improving from November to December. The index is still lower than it was a year ago and just slightly off its record low set in October and November.

The share of respondents saying now is a good time to buy a home was still low, at just 21%, but it was up from 16% in October. The share saying now is a bad time decreased.

On selling, however, sentiment continued to drop. The share of respondents saying now is a good time to sell dropped to 51% from 54%, while the share saying now is a bad time to sell increased.

More consumers now believe home prices will fall in the next 12 months, and more also said they believe mortgage rates will come down.

Prices in November, the most recent measurement, were 2.5% lower than the spring 2022 peak, according to CoreLogic. They were still over 8% higher year over year, but that annual comparison is now half of what it was in June.

The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage hit a recent high of 7.37% in October but then fell back into the mid-6% range throughout November and into December. As of last Friday it had dropped to 6.2%, according to Mortgage News Daily.

“As we enter 2023, we expect affordability to remain the top challenge for potential homebuyers, as even small declines in rates and home prices — from the perspective of the buyer — may not produce sufficient purchasing power,” said Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae’s senior vice president and chief economist, in a release. “At the same time, existing homeowners may continue to wait to list their properties, since many have already locked in lower mortgage rates, creating minimal incentive to sell and buy again until rates are more favorable.”

That tension will continue to drive home sales lower in the coming months, Duncan said.

Adding to the confidence in housing, the share of consumers who said they were concerned about losing their jobs in the next 12 months dropped from 21% to 17%. Fewer, however, said their household income is significantly higher than it was a year ago.

With the housing market now in its historically slow winter season, some agents are reporting activity is “frozen.” Pending home sales, which represent signed contracts on existing homes, dropped more than expected in November, suggesting that closed sales in January will be lower as well.

Those sellers who are braving the housing chill are offering more concessions: Roughly 42% of sellers did so in the fourth quarter, the highest share in recent years, according to Redfin, a real estate brokerage. That’s up from just over 30% in both the previous quarter and the fourth quarter of 2021, and is higher than the previous high of 40.8%, notched during the three months ending July 2020, at the start of the Covid pandemic.

Great article regarding the growth in Huntsville and North Alabama

https://hvilleblast.com/huntsv...

Huntsville added more than 450 new residents per month in 2022 - Hville Blast

If you didn’t realize that Huntsville is growing at an astounding rate, you have not been paying very close attention to the Rocket City lately. But do you realize that in 2022, the city gained more than 450 new residents per month?

To put that into perspective, the city’s Inspections Department issued more Certificates of Occupancy than any year since the department began keeping records in 1983. Wow!

Construction projects in the Huntsville area have received more permits than the rest of the state combined when it comes to multi-million-dollar building projects.

Areas of the city seeing exponential growth include MidCity, Downtown and North Huntsville, among other spots. And if your city is attracting more than 450 new residents per month, you’re going to need multiple city hotspots.

The opening of the Orion Amphitheater in May was a milestone project for the City, bringing in more than 150,000 people in its first season, and helped fuel additional commercial and residential growth within the MidCity Entertainment District. As the district continues to rival downtown as the city’s after-hours hotspot, growth is expected to continue in the 110-acre master planned development.

Some of the highlights at MidCity in 2022:

• In September, the Anthem House project broke ground, a $110 million mixed-use building consisting of 30,000 square feet of retail space, 20,000 square feet of office space, and 330 residential units.
• In December, work began on Wellory Living, a $108 million multifamily development that aims to be the Southeast’s first net zero multifamily development.
• Construction also kicked off on the five-story, 120-room Hotel Indigo.

More residents, more services

No other part of Huntsville is experiencing a growth boom as significant as its historic downtown. This year saw upgrades to the Von Braun Center, and a new hotel – the Autograph by Marriott – is under construction adjacent to Big Spring Park. This is good news for those 450 new residents per month the city added last year.

Here are some of the projects Downtown that are underway:

• Along Lowe Avenue, a $100 million federal courthouse is taking shape. Several blocks away, construction is progressing on a new City Hall and parking garage that will help make municipal government more efficient by putting more departments under one roof.
• Construction on the new Front Row Huntsville development, an 11-acre mixed-use development at the former Big Springs Bottling plant, is expected to begin in spring 2023.
• Following the recent completion of the Eclipse, CityCentre at Big Spring is expanding its downtown footprint and will add two additional phases. Phase 2 includes a food hall, a Moxy Hotel and parking deck. Phase 3 will include mixed-use retail, office and residential space. Both Phase 2 and Phase 3 will be under construction in 2023.
• Vista at Councill Square, a five-story, 336-unit residential development that will also include retail opportunities, also broke ground in 2022.
• Additional developments in the downtown core include mixed-use projects along Oakwood Avenue, Meridian Street, Pratt Avenue, Lowe Mill and Governors Drive.

Growth in North Huntsville

North Huntsville is experiencing a renaissance. In 2022, residential growth continued to thrive in developments like Jaguar Hills, which offered new single-family homes at previously unheard-of price points. Additional residential developments are under construction in the Blue Springs, Pulaski Pike and Bob Wade Lane corridors.

In addition to residential growth, the City announced it was donating 14 acres to Huntsville City Schools at the intersection of North Memorial Parkway and Max Luther Drive. The property will be the new home for Huntsville City Schools central office and a new technical education academy.

Exciting news for Huntsville, AL!

Aerojet Rocketdyne, which makes rocket engines and motors for the aerospace and defense industry, will expand its Huntsville operations with more jobs in a 379,000-square foot manufacturing facility near Huntsville International Airport, the aerospace and defense contractor said today.

Operations in the leased building will begin in 2023 and “allow Aerojet Rocketdyne to increase manufacturing capacity for the nation’s defense production needs,” the company said. It will take some work from the company’s Camden, Ark., location but the amount was not specified. The move “better positions the Camden site to support continued growth of vital energetics capabilities for defense programs across multiple domains,” the company said.

For comparison, the new facility will be slightly larger than two Orion amphitheaters and smaller than Bridge Street Town Center’s 550,000 square foot shopping center.

“Huntsville has been home to Aerojet Rocketdyne’s Defense Headquarters since its founding, and with this expansion of both talent and space, we’re pleased to grow our presence in the Rocket City,” said Eileen P. Drake, Aerojet Rocketdyne CEO and president.

Aerojet Rocketdyne calls Huntsville its Inert Manufacturing Center of Excellence. The company also designated Huntsville for its Defense Business Unit headquarters in 2016 citing “the engineering expertise in the area, close proximity to its government and prime contractors as well as collaborative support from local and state leaders.” It has won multiple jobs in that arena since the decision including work in hypersonics and opened a big new rocket propulsion Advanced Manufacturing Facility in north Huntsville.

The company did not say how many new jobs it plans to fill in Huntsville, and a spokesperson was not immediately available. It has more than 800 employees in the city now.

https://www.al.com/news/2022/1...

Thought I would share this information.  Huntsville AL holding up in the slowdown.

HOME > DATA & ANALYSIS > 5 HOUSING MARKETS THAT ARE HOLDING UP IN THE SLOWDOWN

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5 HOUSING MARKETS THAT ARE HOLDING UP IN THE SLOWDOWN

Based on unsold inventory, these five markets are staying strong amid the cooling environment.

By Leah Draffen

The cooling market is causing sales prices to drop, incentives to be offered, and unsold inventory to stack up throughout the U.S. While some markets are faring better than others, these five are holding up well to the shift, according to Zonda market reports and unsold inventory level.

1. Indianapolis

New-home sales have held strong during the mortgage rate hikes of the first half of 2022. Largely related to the affordable market, the healthy economy and strong migration trends make it ideal for entry-level buyers.

Indianapolis metro area new-home sales have increased 2.9% year over year to an annualized rate of just over 6,600 units in June. According to the Zonda market report, over the past 12 months, 891 of sales were attached units and 5,722 were detached.

“Indianapolis provides an enviable blend of things to do, relative housing affordability, and great employment opportunities. The diverse housing options locally, ranging from attainable existing homes to luxury new homes, allow buyers of different income levels and lifestyles to generally find what they want,” says Ali Wolf, Zonda’s chief economist. “The building community has been working quickly to get more homes built in response to the solid demand, with Zonda data showing a 132% increase in units under construction in Indianapolis compared to 2019.”

Down 14.8% from the same quarter last year, vacant developed lots sit at 6,463, while quarterly housing starts increased 4.3% over a year ago. The supply is still under at 0.64%, which is a vast difference to many markets whose inventory is piling up.

2. San Diego

Despite rising mortgage rates and slowing new-home construction, San Diego is outperforming neighboring metros. New and existing homes are selling faster than Los Angeles or the Inland Empire, with the lowest relative supply of new homes and existing homes selling in a week.

Zonda Advisory vice president Stephen Carr says its strength is due to San Diego's healthy job market with an unemployment rate of roughly 3%; constrained supply with only 60 actively selling new-home communities in the county; and the median new-home closing price being less than the median resale closing price. "The average new-home list price in the county is on the rise, but when we look at project level data, we can see that San Diego is not fully immune to changing market conditions. We have seen some instances of price adjustments and higher incentives, but low supply has insulated many builders," he shares.

New-home sales for the metro area increased 7% year over year to an annualized rate of 3,425 units in June. Over the past 12 months, 1,549 were attached units and 1,876 were detached. The number of available vacant developed lots sits at 1,480, which is down 2.1% from the same quarter last year. Quarterly housing starts increased 58% over a year ago as the market’s supply-demand balance is 0.75% oversupplied.

“San Diego will not be immune to forces slowing the housing market nationwide; however, strong job growth, constrained supply, and desirability will help San Diego weather the storm better than most markets across the country. We expect to see some softening in terms of pricing and sales over the next six to 12 months, but fundamentals remain strong in the long term,” Carr adds.

Looking ahead, Carr doesn't foresee a time where San Diego will be overbuilt and notes that the main risk factor for the market will be affordability.

3. Charlotte, North Carolina

For the Charlotte metropolitan area, the housing market has remained steady even as the risk of correction grows. While among the most overpriced in the nation, according to a study by Florida Atlantic University, its strong economy and household growth are on its side.

New-home sales for the larger metro area have decreased 12.3% year over year to an annualized rate of 11,738 units in June. Attached units over the past 12 months were 2,976 of sales, and 8,762 were detached.

When asked why the market remains strong, Shaun McCutcheon, vice president at Zonda Advisory, says “job growth in a variety of industries and income levels, job relocation, and in-migration from retirees seeking quality of life, affordable cost of living, good value for housing, mild weather, and relatively low taxes.”

The number of vacant developed lots is down 5.2% from the same quarter last year, sitting at 11,319 while quarterly housing starts decreased 11.3% from a year ago. The market is very slightly oversupplied at 0.02%. To remain strong, McCutcheon says that home builders should avoid exceeding demand.

“Prices will come down, and sales could slow, which would hurt the builders. From the consumer’s perspective, an increased supply of for-sale housing units and apartments could mean lower rents and lower monthly payments, which would be a relief given the rising interest rates and inflation that have been very painful in 2022.”

4. Huntsville, Alabama

“Our data is showing that single-family and multifamily permits are at record levels in both Charlotte and Huntsville, even higher than the housing boom in the mid-2000s,” McCutcheon shares.

The Zonda Residential Economic Report for Huntsville forecast permit activity for 2022 near 4,601 single-family homes. While price appreciation has risen, it is not to extreme levels like Charlotte. Compared with October 2021, it is estimated that the new-home sales will rise from 20 to 157 for October of this year, and from 518 to 1,102 for resales.

“The short-term outlook is ‘choppy’ as buyers react to rising home prices and rising interest rates. Builders are reacting with increased incentives including rate buydowns, but not reducing home prices for the most part. Sales paces and buyer traffic are declining, but they are declining off record paces that were not sustainable,” McCutcheon says.

“Over the long term, these markets [Huntsville and Charlotte] will continue to be able to draw from more expensive markets on the coasts and colder climates in the Northeast and Midwest.”

5. South Florida

For the Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach market, quarterly housing starts decreased 25.9% from a year ago and available vacant developed lots sit at 5,851, which is down 30.5% from the same quarter last year. The area is 1.35% undersupplied.

“South Florida has limited land available for development, keeping a cap on supply. The region is bordered by the Everglades to the west and the Atlantic Ocean to the east and south, thus limiting future development opportunities,” says Kristine Smale, senior vice president, Zonda Advisory. “Most counties in South Florida have less than a year of vacant developed lot inventory, and we consider between 24 and 30 months of supply to represent a balanced market.”

New-home sales have decreased 18.6% year over year to an annualized rate of 8,822 units in June. The sales over the past 12 months were made up of 5,647 attached units and 3,175 detached. With an eye on affordability, homes priced under $400,000 experienced the most closing activity, according to Zonda’s Market Report.

“The short-term outlook for South Florida is a slight increase in inventory and softening price appreciation while the long term is continued growth due to business expansion, migration, and retirees,” Smale explains. “Development will move further north (Martin, St. Lucie, Indian River counties) as developers search for land opportunities.”