Here is my take on the situation.
The next real estate crisis will not directly h he arm the residential buyer. In 2008 basically anyone with a pulse received a mortgage. Keep in mind during that time the mortgages were adjustable rates and underwriting was poor.
Homebuyers in the last few years are locked in at extremely low rates for 30 years. This is why fundamentally the next crisis will not be a 2008 situation. Homeowners are safe if they just sit tight through the downturn.
Now, I have said this time and time again, this next crisis will play out on the institutional level. Keep in mind that over the past few years we’ve also seen institutional buyers step into the residential space at a high level. This is also playing a roll in extremely low inventory. If you take all the homes that’s been purchased by Zillow,Opendoor,Offerpad, etc and put them back on the market, what does inventory look like. Still low, but you get the point. Especially since their buying strategy, which is ran by an algorithm, is to buy at market value, throw a little lipstick on the house, and sell at a higher price. These companies currently have tons of inventory sitting on the market. They are going to be forced to sell a lot of homes at a discount when the tide turns.
Or what about the massive build to rent projects or syndications being underwritten at a 3% cap? This still amazes me. The increase in rents are just as bad as the increase in housing prices. It’s unrealistic for rents to keep going up and wages are basically going backwards in this inflationary environment. I honestly wonder how many of these companies actually considered a drastic decrease in rents as part of their underwriting? Or better yet, when it’s time to refi or restructure the debt, can the project support higher rates?
I’ll say it again- The average homeowner will be safe from the next fiasco if they just sit tight. Everyone else is in for a rude awakening. Lenders, syndications, institutional buyers will start to have real trouble when the value of assets start declining. When that will happen who knows.
Am I waiting to buy properties, hell no!! There is value to be found in every market, it just takes a little longer to find in a hot market.
Just my 2 cents.
Canesha