I'm considering a new build STR, seeking opinions on this strategy in current market and with my numbers attached (3 scenarios). My numbers are conservatively based on 3 STR's I already own in this market. I have no other income than from my 3 STR's.
I have been in the STR game 7 years and have built from scratch two times already, with unique architecture/ design forward STR specific builds as a hedge against the competition in my area. My goal is to be always be on the first page of airbnb listings. Winning so far. We have experienced the oversaturation here like most places, and a couple months this winter RevPar off by 20-30%, but picking up now, and expect peak season to be full as typical.
Building from scratch is a ton of work, I do most of it myself, and it's 9 months of climbing a big mountain. But then it should pay me back the rest of my life, at least that's how I look at it. I self manage and for me, adding another here locally does not increase workload much. Also starting with a brand new property is nice for the lack of capex for a while. But a lot has changed since the last one I completed in 2020 for an all-in cash price of $239k. Now I'll be at $350k financing 50% or so... yielding half the returns for all that work!
So the alternative would be stepping out of my comfort zone and buying in another market where, theoretically I can get the same returns on an already built property including management fees. I see projections like this, but are they real? It would seem the property would have to do 20% better than mine (all things being equal) just to make the management fee. And then there's all the unknowns and lack of quality control etc...with out of town.
Did I mention I need the income? Alternatively I could just put $300k savings into a notes fund and hope for the best - earn 10% ( about the same annual amount) without doing anything, but also without control. But missing out on some levered real estate appreciation I guess. It's a tough call....Which is riskier? I don't know...