All Forum Posts by: Bruce Woodruff

In response to the initial question. My read is that...

Near Term Housing Supply - His policies will not improve near term supply. Building developments and new housing is a years long process. His erratic and inconsistent behavior does not give companies the consistency or predictability necessary to change/ramp up the long term planning necessary for dramatically ramping up supply. Trumps behavior introduces more variables (lumber, labor costs etc.) that make long term planning more challenging.

Interest rate pressure. The Fed will move in a manner consistent with their dual mandate of maximizing employment while moderating inflation. They should not set rates based on the desires of one man, they have a larger responsibility to the economy as a whole and should not be swayed by what Trump thinks is right. They are smart economists who have responsibilities that extend beyond what a president wants, lest they risk hurting the economy long term to produce a short term positive political effect.

Downward pressure on demand. Trump will not be deporting millions of people, he knew that saying that would get uninformed xenophobes to vote for him and they’re critical to his voting block. He lacks the attention span to complete this… even if he wanted to… for proof see his insistence that we take Canada, then Panama, then Greenland… and then he’s off to tariffs having left chaos and no achievement in his wake. Trump appears to just think out loud which is a horrible trait for a leader. If the CEO of your employer behaved half as ham handed as Trump they would be sent packing. It would be funny if it weren’t sad. Deporting millions of likely renters would hurt rental demand, which would put downward pressure on rental pricing. His erratic and seemingly incoherent (not that this was unexpected) tariff strategy will also put downward pressure on demand as people limit spending due to economic uncertainty and business leaders (who need economic stability to execute on long term plans, like building new factories) will pause on decisions because they don’t know which way his comb over will be blowing 4 weeks from now so you can’t make long term plans.

Upward cost on RE operating costs. Many of the products you purchase for building and maintaining a property are not made in the US. Tariffs increase the cost to import these goods, which is at least partially passed on to the consumer. Yes this administration will raise RE operating costs. Inflation this way cometh.

 Thoughts, probably disjointed:

1. Yes, a lot of our problems are self-inflicted, sometimes through economic malfeasance and sometimes through grandiose visions of alternate reality. Sometimes obviously so (ie Guatemala & Iran 1950s), sometimes only in the rear view mirror (support for S Vietnam, for example). 

2. *Most* of the time we are trying to do good in the world, regardless of the party in charge or individual in the OO. Screws up are going to happen and that doesn't mean it has to negate the good that was done for others. GB let ne'er-do-wells talk him into taking out Saddam, a bad guy for sure but a bulwark against radical Islam and Iranian aspirations. He also did more than every president combined to help combat HIV in Africa. LBJ pushed us deeper into Vietnam but also pushed for water & electrification for millions of poverty areas in the US.

3. We need take no lectures from any other government on the planet for our mistakes. GB incited the Mossadeq overthrow, giving us the Shah and consequently the Ayatollah. Our protection blanket enabled the high standard of living in Western Europe, Japan & Australia. Taiwan & South Korea would not be thriving democracies without our efforts.

4. Most people around the world love the US, or at least Americans. When I was in the Navy I found most foreigners when we went somewhere thought well of us - OK, so this was in the 80's and 90s but nevertheless. Why shouldn't they think well of us? We've provided a lot of resources around the world for a very long time.

5. One advantage China has over us in some developing countries is no religious or racial baggage. They don't care who they are working with in Africa as long as it benefits them. We dropped the ball supporting minority governments in these areas for too long.

6. Most government workers believe in helping other people and in their mission. Certainly there's always going to be waste and abuse and that should be curbed whenever possible but we should stop demonizing federal, state and local gov't employees as people just sitting around eating bon-bons. Without government we have anarchy, and we need good, dedicated public servants to make sure we don't devolve into anarchy. 

I think as Americans we have some right to strut around a little bit. We saved the planet from fascism when everyone else was too feckless and pathetic to do so. Without our manpower, money and weaponry, a third of the world would be the 3rd Reich and the other third would be Japanese slave colonies. Since then we've generally done our best to try to contain or limit wars, provide aid to other countries within reason, and raise the standard of living for everyone. We've worked to try to limit ecological damage, whether from a nuclear holocaust, hunting whales or wholesale poison dumping into rivers. We've welcomed people from every corner of this globe into a caste-less system, where those arriving here with nothing can carve out a great life for themselves. Have we screwed up some places, not made enough advances in others, acted greedily & maliciously at times? Of course. This is not Utopia, it's just a bunch of humans who are going to have human biases and make human mistakes. But we need to give ourselves a lot of credit, and stop acting like we - one side or the other, or collectively as Americans - are the bad guys. Liberals are good people. So are conservatives. As a country we're pretty good to the rest of the world. Right now we have this kind of violent internal convulsion that is happening, as a result of years of demonizing each other. That's unfortunate but I believe it will pass. 

America is FAR from being the "trusted" person on the international stage. At least, not trusted in a good way. 

Yes, I would say China and even Rusia are far more "trusted" internationally than USA. 

The USA has a long history of stabbing people in the back. Or meddling in foreign nations affairs and only ever making things far worse. 

Example, Iran. The Iran we have today, that USA hates, that so many hate, is all thanks to USA. Many are probably just a bit too young to remember it all. We really f'd that country up. 

There is a long list of countries the USA has used, abused, and the people don't forget. 

China does not have that history. Nor even Russia. USA is king-Con on the international stage. 

This is why our allies don't ever even fully trust us, because they've seen us F so many others and we just say "yeah, but, were like buddies n all, we wouldn't do that to you...." until we do. 

Afghanistan is another. In 80's we made so many great promises, and Osama was our operative. We trained and funded them. And then when they did the job we gave them, when they achieved all the goals, we f'd em hard. So hard, that they never forgot it. And what happened, something far worse came in and took over and there we are back again many years later to deal with a mess we could have avoided if we had just honored our promises. 

And than we did it AGAIN...... 

If you think the world is in some love-fest with USA, that's because you havn't been out around the world. Most places in the world have a very negative perception of USA and Americans. 

And fact is USA earned that. Only way to change it is to hold self accountable and stop the BS. Stop "nation building" which is code word for nation imploding given its trackrecord. 

China is HUGE in Africa. There taking over and Africa is THE resources powerhouse. What's USA doing, saber rattling about making Gaza a damn resort..... wtf..... 

China builds roads, hospitals, infrastructure, is taking over a continent with there smiles and gifts. USA could learn a thing or 12 from them. 

We can't even keep Russia in check who is a laughing stock compared to China. 

The world does not need the USA, they simply are happy to use the USA if and when it suits them. NATO, China, all great examples of this. USA is #1 at being used, because we like the ego-stroke. Europe giggles and says they'll happily let USA enjoy the ego and let them enjoy the wealth. There not dumb. 

Get out there, travel the world, find out for yourself. The reality is far different than the domestic propaganda. 

@Bruce Woodruff

good post, concise statements!  I think I agree with... some to most of it?

"everyone else needs the USA more than we need them" - I have no idea how to validate that.  maybe it is true.  how would you measure it?

I think the US is a more desirable place to live and do business than much of the rest of the world.

to your point 5, I do think there is a job shortage that is likely to persist... but i don't know if it's in the most exciting of fields.  for example, i believe we will need hundreds of thousands or potentially even millions of home health care aides.

the people telling us that AI is going to AI everything are the people selling AI.

Update; The L.A. times reported as of March 26th only 4 permits have been issued for building in Pacific Palisades. "Fast track" lol