All Forum Posts by: Bruce Woodruff

I don't think you're necessarily 'wrong'.....but I don't think you can/should compare 2 cities that are so different in so many ways. Just the weather factor in LA will sway those stats hugely.....

However, I don't agree completely with the planner either. I beleive in some zoning....but, when applied strictly, it also creates a boring bland community or city. I've seen cities fight the 'mixed use' concept (Residential living above, commercial below), when in the right place it can make a city come alive....

IME, city planners are blah and boring with no imagination and a dislike of risk....

Are others nervous about what impact a decline in international travelers will have on their STRs? 

75% of my current bookings are from international travelers so I'm worried.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politic...

 Yeah, electricians have lots of that copper stuff :-)

I suspect the cost to convert an 450' garage to an ADU will approach $150k. The issue is it will likely add ~$75k of value resulting in an initial negative $75k (a value subtract). This initial negative position needs to be recovered before any cash flow is obtained.

I am also a bit skeptical that a 450’ unit can achieve $2k rent in Sacramento.

Using 50% rule (expenses other than mortgage is 50%) on a financed ADU, 8% 30 your loan at 80% LTV.

$2000 - $1000 (50% rule) - $881 (P&i) = $119/month
$75k/$119 = 630 months to recover the initial negative equity. This is 52.5 years.

Let’s use OP’s $120k with $45k initial negative position.
$2000 - $1000 - $704 (P&i) = $296/ month
$45k/$296 = 152 months or 12,7 years to recover the initial equity.

Building a single smal, unit is very expensive development.

Here is a list of why adding a single ADU in single family zoned areas in my CA market is typically a poor RE investment:
1) The value added by the ADU addition is often significantly less than the cost of adding the ADU. Search the BP for ADU appraisals to encounter numerous examples. This creates a negative initial position. This negative position can consume years of cash flow to recover. Make sure you know the value the ADU will add to the property before building the ADU.
2) the financing on an ADU is typically far worse than for initial investment property acquisition or is often not leveraged by the ADU (HELOC, cash out refi, etc). Leverage magnifies return.
3) The effort involved in adding an ADU is comparable or larger than a rehab associated with a BRRRR. However if I do a BRRRR I can achieve infinite return by extracting all of my investment. Due to item 1, adding an ADU can require years to start achieving any return (once the accumulated cash flow recovers the initial negative position).
4) Adding an ADU is a slow process. It can take a year or more to complete an ADU. During this time you are not generating any return from the money invested in the ADU. This amounts to lost opportunity because if you had purchased RE, at the closing it can start producing return.
5) ADUs detract from the existing structure whether this is privacy, a garage, or just yard space.
6) this is related to number 1, but there are many more buyers looking to purchase homes for their family than there are RE investors looking to purchase small unit count properties. This may affect value or time required to sell.
7) Adding an ADU does not make the property a duplex. For example in many jurisdictions I can STR units in a duplex but cannot STR an ADU (some jurisdictions will let you STR if you owner occupy). Duplex have different zoning that may permit additional units. Duplex can always add additional units via the ADU laws.
8) Related to number 1, purchasing a property with an existing ADU is cheaper than buying a property and adding an ADU. Why add an ADU if it can be purchased cheaper?
9) adding multiple ADUs or adding an ADU to a quad looses F/F conventional financing. This reduces exit options and affects the value.
10) Small number of small units is the most expensive residential development there is. This implies residential units can be built at lower costs and provide better return than building a single ADU.
11) adding an ADU to SFH can make the SFH fall under rent control. In CA currently only MF properties are rent controlled. If the house is older than 15 years old and an ADU is added, it can become rent controlled. Rent control laws are market specific. Make sure you know the impact that adding an ADU will have on any rent control.
12) investors seldom include the land value in the overall ADU costs. The reality is the land has value.

Good luck

 There's a chance coal plants that aren't retired but in the process of-- could turn back on. This would be a net drop in energy price. I haven't done my homework on if that is tangible in NE markets.