All Forum Posts by: Brian Lacey

There are still some quality markets.

I'ma perma-bear so take what I say with a grain of salt. But fact remains no one out here is stealing properties in this environment.

Seattle, LA, and San Fran are all very bubbly.

RE was the cause of the '07 nightmare. This time its credit. RE will get caught as a casualty this time, but not the cause as previously seen. Still, markets are cyclical, good deal are out there, and always will be.

Active vs. Passive is really a question of your time. 

Logically, the more time you dedicate to an endeavor, the more return from that endeavor is expected. That being said, active investing, logically would provide you greater wealth (for simplest definition, wealth = most possible money). 

Eventually, everyone gets old, and you no longer for physical or mental issues are no longer able to do your job, thus active investing does have a finite limit on it. That is where passive investing takes over, and if the systems are in place, is largely on auto-pilot.

All that being said, just a matter of where you want your most valuable resource, your time, to be dedicated to.

Welcome!

Auckland, cool deal! My girlfriend is from Auckland, her and  I are currently in Korea, and looking at moving to Austin! lol

Crazy world we live in!

I wouldn't be watching the game if my team wasn't in it.

Still comes down to numbers, and controlling as many of the known variables as possible. The less you can pay for the property the better, always. Keep in mind, the unknown variable of repairs and deferred maintenance. This is all risk that you are taking on. That doesn't take into consideration what you may find or need to repair once you get going.

It all comes down to how much money you're putting into it at the end of the day.

@Account Closed, I agree with him and @Ned Carey and @Ben Leybovich. Appreciation is important, the how and where it comes from is more important. You can get instant appreciation (equity) by closing on a good deal and buying below market value. The other is through sweat equity and improving the condition of the property. Cash flow is important as well. Cash flow is equivalent to a stock paying a dividend. Appreciation is equivalent to seeing your stock rise in value. The only difference is cash flow is money in your pocket, appreciation is not (yet). You don't cash in on appreciation until you sell or refinance.

In terms of the deal, you need to buy it for what it is currently performing at. Do not pay the price you know it'll be worth once you get working on it. That's giving away your equity. You pay the seller for what they have done with it so far. 

As you can see from the thread, all 3 of the aforementioned investors I mentioned are very successful, yet have differing opinions on to accomplish that. And that pretty much sums up real estate investing. No two deals are alike, just how no two investors are alike. Plenty of ways to skin the cat.

Realtor.com has a multifamily filter as well. It's worked great for me.

I agree with @Mike Sumsky and @Joel Colvos. A bad deal is only a bad deal if the numbers don't work when you buy. A good deal ought to net you some instant equity, and cash flow from day one, or asap.

You give the market and sellers too much credit. Most aren't selling because they see a bubble, and want to lock in their profits before said bubble pops.

I highly suggest you use the BP Rental Calculator, and start playing with the numbers and see what numbers work for you. Then throw that offer out there. You have your number, and that's that. Keeps you from making a bad deal barring you've done the other necessary due diligence.

Fun thread to read. Since I came this far, here are my two cents:

1) Globalization and technology are everywhere. RE tech is flourishing, which leads me to believe that international investing is possible (comparative to say 5 or 10 years ago). It's realistically doable.

2) One would need to follow trends, and time it correctly. Another thing would be mass migration. A flood of Chinese money into a secondary market pushing into comparative prices as the primary mainstays. 

3) Macro trends. Vietnam is the 2nd fastest growing country in the world. Myanmar is also one to look at as well. Both deserve a look if one were so inclined. 

4) You'd need a bulletproof vest, a shotgun, Seal Team Six, Blackwater, and probably have Facebook or Google up their operations to the area, but Chicago and Detroit.

I see it more regional than national like 8 years ago.

A couple cities come to mind like, San Francisco. Tech bubble 2.0 all over again right now, and that bubble is bursting right now.

I haven't seen any one on BP talking about the numerous deals they're coming across. Some areas are just absurd considering the tenant you're buying at these prices.

No one has mentioned the exponential growth in markets now. Tech has expedited this, and now consistent low interest, QE policies have allowed economies to boom and bust at a much more rapid rate. We won't see another great recession like we did, but we will see more regional boom/busts on a much more rapid rate than has traditionally been the case.

From the other post a month ago "Fed raises rates", Matt Motil, and David Tipton, had some great insight. Love to their input if they come across this post.

I know it'd hurt the 10 year T-Bond to what extent, I'm curious. 

Just some food for thought.