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All Forum Posts by: Brian Barch

Brian Barch has started 3 posts and replied 271 times.

I would back out, too risky!

Post: Talk me off the ledge

Brian BarchPosted
  • Posts 271
  • Votes 253

How is the HOA?how do they feel towards STRs? Do they have assessements, deferred maintenance, or high initiation or monthly dues?

Airdna predicts revenue will decline -1.6%, not unlike the greater economy perhaps. 

These news stories of airbnBust with 30+% drop offs just aren’t backed by data from the Marco environment.

Certainly, markets are unique, and bad hosts might get raked over the coals, but that’s not the economy’s fault. 2021 wasn’t going to last forever.

But the fear mongering huge dips for the foreseeable future….most asset based markets just don’t move that much. People still want to vacation


Quote from @Trent Reeve:
Quote from @Drew Sygit:

You may have missed the timing for STR gold. Recession will dampen travel spending.


 maybe far travel, but you should get more local travel or people within driving distance.

Agreed.

anyone who is getting into STRs by making a hypothesis on just 2023 is going about it all wrong.

take a 10 year view. People aren’t going to stop visiting the beach or mountains and NPs 10 years from now. One can’t let year to year noise cloud long term judgement 


Quote from @Jon Tungsten:

From the podcasted referenced by OP:

“Analysis of the short term rental market in the Phoenix area shows that 65% of listings had less than 90 days of occupancy throughout the year.“

Seems like many of these operators are going to be in a dire financial position. 


I'd imagine a good portion of the STR market is still passive people listing out their primary residence at various times.

I’m not worried. We are in a recession, and thus the economy is going to temporarily slow down.

Bottom feeders in every industry will fallout. STRs normalizing is a good thing.

if someone bought for the short term….shame on them, I wouldn’t have advised that recession or not.


STR demand is still growing, albeit not as fast as supply

Quote from @Michael Baum:

Hey @Damon Aniton, first things first. There really isn't a thing as MTR. Anything over 30 days is a long term rental with a short lease time and should be treated as such.

You will need to have a real lease and do all the due diligence you would do on a LTR applicant.

MTRs are the new buzzword because people who don't really know much about running a STR keep making videos, posting blogs and articles about how it is all going to hell in a handbasket and you better get out now before you end up dead alongside the road. And hey!, here you can do MTRs now and make a ton of dough and it is super easy. Just sign up for our courses and you will be on your way!

Short stay long term rentals (see I just coined a term, SSLTR) can work just fine if you have it somewhere that it is needed. Near a major university, hospital or maybe a state capitol (rent to visiting legislators and staff).

In my area, a SSLTR isn't much of a thing. We are quite rural about 36 miles downlake from the nearest big town (if 50k people is big). But if you have both a school and major hospital nearby then it could work.

STRs work just fine if you are in the right area (vacation land), have lots of amenities, close to cool stuff and run a tight ship. We are on Lake Coeur d'Alene in north Idaho and we are booking pretty solid for 2023 and have 2 bookings for 2024. Not everyone is doing as well, but those that are on here are doing just fine for the most part.

Just remember it requires all the things you would do for a LTR, just with a shorter lease time. 3 months, 6 months etc. 

You hit the nail on the head! Apparently YouTubers think there are 50 million traveling nurses in the US all just waiting to stay in a rural mountain cabin….

Evolve and awning.


not sure how robust they are

I’m against condos:

Harder to differentiate amongst peers, can have strong HOAs

I prefer awning.com


the rabbu numbers for my markets are 30+% below airdna/awning