Originally posted by @Michael Randle:
The property I bought in 2015 will be at the 1% rule in a few years. And I am ok with that, again due to my financial goals and personal plan.
I mean no offence Michael, I absolutely agree with the first half of your post. However, I want to warn any new investors who might read his post. Be careful with the thinking above!!!
I believe the intention of any of the 'rules' is based on actual/attainable numbers AT TIME OF PURCHASE. Basically what you are saying Michael, is that you maybe bought your property at a .5% rent to purchase, but with rent appreciation in 2 years since...and a couple? years more, you will hit 1%. IMHO that's not investing. At best its a semi-educated guess, at worst its gambling.
As you say, returns in hot markets are lower, because many investors are taking this same line, and accepting lower cash on cash returns with the expectation of appreciation. Yes this is how you grow wealth, but it is for the experienced investor, and one that is not over leveraged and so can withstand a hit to the market (what if stocks crash next year, or current tax policy goes through reducing incentive for owner occupants). For those with a smaller portfolio, I would recommend sacrificing some capital gains, for a little more cash flow.
As other posters have said, sometimes the long term numbers don't work. I have ended up doing a bunch of flips because we have found deals with plenty of equity, but having flipped, we might be able to sell for 150K an only rent for 800. I often put this down to a lot of end users getting back into the market.
It will always depend on where you are investing, what your goals are, how much time you have, and the current state of your portfolio. There are houses that I sold 3 years ago, which if I was in my current position I would have held onto...but at the time needed to turn and burn to build up capital, as we didn't have the track record or portfolio to borrow any more money from banks and had tapped the private money we had sourced to that point.
As was mentioned on a relatively recent BP podcast, the 2% rule is no longer (with the exceptions of war zones...And so when you allow for capital expenditures and vacancy, you will probably NET the same return and a solid 1% built since 2000).
Finally @Ryan Jones, while 1% deals are definitely still out there, they are getting significantly harder to find. Because they are harder to find though, I believe it is even more important to work hard to find that great deal. As other posters have mentioned, .75 might be more realistic in the front range for anything outside a war zone. Unless wage rates increase significantly soon, I think we are closing in on the top of the market. With all that equity in your home, if you want to get in, you are probably best to pull a heloc, so you can offer cash. Whatever you do, just don't be tempted to use it for a new car or boat! Save it for that screaming deal so you can make your offer the most competitive.