Our property management company manages about 20 of these in a large area of SW Montana from Madison, Gallatin, Park, and Sweetgrass Counties. I've been an investor here since 2007, and I've been selling real estate here since 2016. I would agree with most sentiments that we are headed for a huge downturn in STR. Our market is still very strong, but the outer limits out in the county, or anywhere further than 30 minutes from a town like Bozeman or Livingston, and in more isolated pockets are taking a huge hit right now. I'm not really worried about my rentals, as we have a niche market that we manage, which is very amenity rich, unlike those el-cheapo illegal 1 night specials you are seeing everyone and their cousin posting in Bozeman.
The main problem is that many investors out there predicated their purchase of a residential property on a strictly STR operations and income. I never ever advise that to potential buyers, and also point out that a bank will not accept STR income, but only LTR income, market-rate at a 75% occupancy...
Our real estate market is down over 50% from last year and rates are killer right now at 20-30% down with a 7+ rate right now, so you can imagine how that is killing our market. In other words, when it comes to a sale, these investors will be the first to lose money as their equity in the property fizzled away as the Fed fights inflation. I think deals will be hitting the market so keep your eyes peeled.
Besides the STR market taking a hit, I've been expanding my own operations for accommodations, plus additional complementary businesses in under-serviced areas. In the next few years, we are planning on opening a few businesses, regardless of the state of the economy. We don't bother with residential property or land zoned residential anymore. We don't buy in city limits. We don't even build with concrete anymore. Everything is modularized, and we pack our properties with amenities. Not seeing many exciting STR's out there when I travel these days, which I assume is just owners not really caring about the experience their guests are having, but only about the money they are paying. It does, however, make me feel better about my properties!
Good luck out there! Merry Xmas and Happy New Year!