Anthony, again assuming you can’t or won’t rent out rooms in your home, better known as easy money. What I am trying to say is so little of the return is based on cashflow, it shouldn’t be the deciding factor.
Imagine you buy an average $400k property and hold it for 30 years. With ZERO cashflow, the rent exactly covers repairs, taxes, PITI etc, even 20 years from now when you've doubled the rents because you were behind at the beginning.
If you refused to buy it as a new primary, so you had to put down 20%, were unable to find a good deal and just bought at market price, didn’t hit a home run, etc…
Imagine you only average 4.7% appreciation. In 30 years your $80k downpayment has turned in to a $1.6M paid off property. A 2,000% return or 10.8% annually. After depreciation you probably got that return almost 100% tax free. Now you have 3 choices. It cashflows like crazy as is, you take out a tax free loan of $1.2M give or take, you leave it to your heirs when you die and they pay zero taxes.
The way I think of my real estate investments when I started was the same way most people think of their 401ks or IRAs. I didn’t expect them to cashflow when I got started. In fact I got 15 year loans to pay a lot interest rate and just sent all their income in to paying them off.
By accident the above example is close to what I experience. Between 10 & 15 years ago I purchase 5 primary homes and 5 rentals over 5 years. I could have put less down on the primaries but I put down 20% to avoid PMI. So the average home was $100-$110k, I put down $20-22k, and 10-15 years later they are worth $420-$600k and they are paid off. The throw off about $200k year in cashflow and I pay almost zero taxes. (Being in NV helps.). They worked exactly how your retirement accounts are supposed to work but 3 x faster.
You can say houses are much more expensive today! And my reply would be: That means you need less houses to get the exact same results I got in raw dollars. But I’d suggest with inflation eating at your returns I’d still try to get 10, even if it takes longer. It’s not a race.
When I was young I feared the day I would start pulling funds out of my IRA and/or Roth. Was I supposed to hope I died before I ran out of money? The Alabama song "I'm in a hurry" would play in my head.
Unless you truly believe interest rates and prices will be lower in the next 2-3 years there’s no way to catch up with the investor that starts today. I was going to type “don't take uncomfortable risks.” But you will be taking them. Don’t take extreme risks. This was being done by amateurs without mentors, BP, a decent Internet forum, anyone to ask for advice, or heck, without knowing anyone that owned more than one house. You can always regret not starting 5 years ago, until you start. I truly meant it when I said good luck. Your success is a compliment to those who succeeded before you. Not a detraction.
Why else would so meany people be trying to help you for free? We’re not trying to sell you anything and we don’t make $1 more than if you never get started. We’re simply cheerleaders, fellow players, and coaches trying to get the new players to live up to their potential.
Ps. After I posted this. I randomly got an email from @Eric Fernwood that showed how a negative cashflow rental could provide a 19-20% annual IRR return even after selling costs because of the increased rents and appreciation. He is MUCH better at math than me. You could reach out to him to ask for a copy of his results.