Originally posted by @Jason Merchey:
@Jay Hinrichs
keep in mind MF does not have to go into default to wipe out investors equity.. and I am not saying any of the people your investing in are going to get wiped out.. just commenting that the stats for the real world are skewed since so many commercial loans get some sort of work out behind the scenes.. the bank gets paid but those with 25 to 35% of the cash in the deal may not get their money back..
True, true. I get the behind closed doors work-out thing, and also the "you can lose your investment without defaulting on the debt" thing. In fact, that is the very reason you suggested the HML outfit you did last week -- they have a "senior note" tranch that seems very insulated from damage. As well, on a prominent syndicator, on his last deal, offered Class A and B shares, and I'm not absolutely sure that I can divulge much about it but I will simply say that one is first in line in regard to seniority.
I think the main point here, despite this little tangent, is that MF is not insulated from loss like the sector has some kind of magic talisman. But according to Moore and others, it is a very strong investment in the hands of good operators in good cities with good loans. I wouldn't, as a rule, invest with a poor operator or a bad city or a bad loan. The question is whether I know enough about cap rates and market cycles and operators and cities and loans to suss it all out and make a return on my investment. Time will tell, I suppose! "A fool and his money are soon separated," it is said.
Here is my big question about multi family, an area up until now we haven't invested (but would like to in the future). It seems like most of these MF syndications are value add deals where you go in, fix up some of the units, improve the management systems, increase the rent and then sell it in 3-5 years.
The actual deal without the ability to increase rents is not particularly good as cap rates are really compressed.
But the biggest concern is as I understand it a very large portion of these deals rely on the ability to cash out. And the initial financing in most of these syndications are giver or take 3-5 years in duration.
IF we hit a nasty recession, its going to be impossible to sell, and banks may shut down their lending, and if you cant sell, you are forced to refinance. So it might be tough if not impossible to refinance.
And the elephant in the room, that everyone seems to have forgotten, is IF interest rates kick up to 2-3% from where they are now, that buyers will look for higher cap rates.
I really think we have gotten complacent with low interest rates, if you have long term financing, IMO increased inflation is great for you. If you don't, you could be forced to sell into a beat market.