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All Forum Posts by: Brian Adams

Brian Adams has started 5 posts and replied 213 times.

Post: New Member Checking In from Fort Hood, Texas

Brian AdamsPosted
  • Residential Real Estate Agent
  • Dallas, TX
  • Posts 232
  • Votes 173

@Chas Phillips 

Welcome to BP and the Fort Hood area!

I'm a real estate agent in the area and the interest in duplex seems to be spiking this summer, thought that is just based on my recent clients who have been after duplexes.

For local networking, I recently discovered a local meetup group that meets at the El Chico restaurant twice a month for lunch, though I have not had a chance to attend myself yet.  I hope to go next Thursday for my first time.  Their site is:

http://www.meetup.com/Real-Estate-Investors-of-Killeen-Fort-Hood/

Also I'm a member of the Austin RENC.  A whole 'nother market down there, but always lots of excitement and ideas to be shared there. 

http://www.austinrenc.com/

Hope that helps!

Post: Hey from Fort Hood Texas

Brian AdamsPosted
  • Residential Real Estate Agent
  • Dallas, TX
  • Posts 232
  • Votes 173

@Marshall Holmes 

Welcome!  BP is THE place to get started!  Wish I had been reading it when I bought my first homes here in Killeen - bought a home every time I PCSed, but didn't do it half as smart as I could have.

Post: Analysis - Too Late? Negative cash flow :-(

Brian AdamsPosted
  • Residential Real Estate Agent
  • Dallas, TX
  • Posts 232
  • Votes 173

Ah, I was close, @Zacharias Salva 

I quickly took a look at everything sold within .5 miles of Andalucia in the last year and the year prior.  The median price fell from $191,950 to $184,000 in that time (comparing 60 home sold, 23 in the last year and 37 in the year prior).  However that is not by any means cause for alarm.  A big part of that is that more recent sales are predominantly resales instead of new sales, and in a neighborhood where the builder is still selling, resales will be somewhat discounted.  Also, the builder is just finishing up in Spanish Oaks, and builders are more inclined to sell the last of their inventory in a neighborhood at a discount.  I would never recommend expecting appreciation in Killeen, but you are in a great neighborhood and one that I expect to retain its after-inflation value in the long term.  And with as strong a rental market as Killeen has, I think you would do alright renting.

As I mentioned, I have a home on Sulfur Spring Dr. next door in White Rock, bought in 2009 with VA loan that I now rent. I think in that time it has just appreciated/paid off enough that I could sell without bringing money to the table. It's been renting at $1150. I bought it retail and have been losing approximately $100/month cash flow after budgeting for vacancy, maintenance etc. But I am optimistic, because it is one of the cheaper homes in one of the best neighborhoods.

One nice thing about renting in a military community is that there is a large population of responsible, well paid renters.  Someone making a Colonel's salary would normally own a home, but even high ranking officers and NCOs tend to be renters in the Army because off the transient nature of the job.  So I often recommend that landlords can get away with higher tier rentals than are recommended in other markets (where I understand it is recommended to target rental investments center-mass of the rental market).

While there are some Fort Hood units deactivating, it is more about the Army reorganizing. I think Fort Hood is supposed to lose a total of fewer than 4000 Soldiers from a local population of approximately 200,000. And many of those Soldiers who leave the Army at Fort Hood remain in the area. And also, Fort Hood is still the #1 training destination for reserve and national guard troops. But what has us Realtors really excited is the nearly finished and giant VA Hospital, highly visible from Hwy 190 there on Fort Hood, and the new Texas A&M Central Texas campus on the South-west side of town (also very sleek and visible from Hwy 195). These both promise to be major new job and student makers and help the local economy diversify away from a purely "military town".

I am excited about the Hwy 195 improvements as well, though I don't see anyone working on it at the moment.  They seem to be taking there time there.  I wish I could buy up along 195 on the south side of town, because Killeen can only grow south, and also that is where TAMCU is being built.

Let me know what you think!

Post: Analysis - Too Late? Negative cash flow :-(

Brian AdamsPosted
  • Residential Real Estate Agent
  • Dallas, TX
  • Posts 232
  • Votes 173

@Zacharias Salva 

I'm an agent in the area, and based on what you described, I would recommend holding onto it as a rental.  You didn't include the equity you are building, nor the tax benefits in your analysis as best I could see.  @Christopher Brown had a pretty good first-timer post on that. And even if you have a negative cash flow of, for example, $100/month, after 360 months you will have a $168k asset owned free and clear after $36,000 invested. The annualized return on that over 30 years is pretty meek (under 5%, I think), but it is a conservative scenario and doesn't include the money you would make AFTER owning it free and clear, where your returns would skyrocket with no mortgage to pay. Also, with the VA loan, you are already underwater, and will be likely be looking at paying $10k or more just to sell it now.  Once you have some equity in 5-10 years time, that might be a better option.  Just my opinion.

That said, there is only so much negative cash flow a person can handle.  If you don't have a job that can afford the outlay each month, then its not a good place to be in.

BTW - are you in White Rock Estates?  That's my best guess based on the neighborhood you described.  Just curious (though I have a rental in that neighborhood, too).  Also, White Rock is doing fairly well for the area, and I am hopeful will retain its home value in the near to mid term.

Post: killen tx near Fort Hood

Brian AdamsPosted
  • Residential Real Estate Agent
  • Dallas, TX
  • Posts 232
  • Votes 173

@Kenneth Littrell - nothing in Killeen that I am aware of yet, but I make the drive down to the Austin RENC every third Thursday from 6-10. Their footprint includes investors interested in areas as far north as Killeen, and have great networking and educational opportunities, in my opinion

Post: killen tx near Fort Hood

Brian AdamsPosted
  • Residential Real Estate Agent
  • Dallas, TX
  • Posts 232
  • Votes 173

Hello @Douglas Pennington -

Also sent you a colleague request.

I am a Killeen real estate agent / investor also trying to network with other investors (both as a resource for them and to learn more about investing myself). I have three homes, including a Killeen fourplex, in the area. I would love to do a CMA for you and @Greg Fend if you would like, from the local MLS. Would just need the address. (a free CMA, obviously - not sure if some agents charge for those, but that is a lousy way to network if they do). Just let me know!

Post: Want to Network with Central Texas Investors

Brian AdamsPosted
  • Residential Real Estate Agent
  • Dallas, TX
  • Posts 232
  • Votes 173

Hello @Gary Hurst !

I'm at Fort Hood, trying to get started doing the Realtor/Investor thing. I own three homes in the area (including the one I am in). Also a fourplex in the southwest area of Killeen.

I literally just today got access to the MLS (I got set up with StarPointe Realty a couple weeks ago). And actually - I am going to the Austin REIC tonight for the first time to check it out. It seems like Austin is the closest investor clubs to our area, unless you know of some others? Doing my best to figure out the business and start networking.

Post: DTI too high because of Tax Return, not Cash Flow

Brian AdamsPosted
  • Residential Real Estate Agent
  • Dallas, TX
  • Posts 232
  • Votes 173

Just as an update/conclusion on my situation, in case there is a possible reader in a remotely similar position:

The final result was much simpler than I had imagined. My lender ultimately advised I go FHA which has more favorable DTI/reserve requirements. There are negatives like the new perma-MIP, but hopefully there will be a time in the future I can refinance into more favorable terms, or even pay off the loan entirely. Closing had to be delayed until we had a lease for the home we had just moved from - the lease was required to meet DTI. However we moved into the property on time with a buyer lease with the builder; it is a new construction. It is my third FHA loan which I understand is very rare, but my mortgage broker found a lender. First payment in two weeks and all moved in.

My lender made it clear it would be my last house for a very long time - having five financed houses and with no banks taking up the Fannie Mae 5-10 program. At least the last house with traditional financing.

Thanks to everyone for the consideration and help.

Post: What do you figure for 'Opportunity Cost' of you money?

Brian AdamsPosted
  • Residential Real Estate Agent
  • Dallas, TX
  • Posts 232
  • Votes 173

@J Scott - I'm afraid I don't know. I got the 6.58% from:

https://www.spdrs.com/product/fund.seam?ticker=dia

My own calculations of the DJIA annual growth between January 1998 and today is 4.14%. Between 01/20/98 and 08/27/12, I calculated 3.5% annual DJIA growth. The SPDR fund pays dividends, 2.35%, which I guess roughly makes up the difference between 6.58% and 4.14%.

I don't pretend to be really knowledgeable about stocks - not at all. But this is how I have evaluated my own investments and opportunity costs with the use of my excel file that annualizes returns. Not sure how others would go about analyzing and evaluating opportunity costs, but wanted to jump in the conversation.

Post: What do you figure for 'Opportunity Cost' of you money?

Brian AdamsPosted
  • Residential Real Estate Agent
  • Dallas, TX
  • Posts 232
  • Votes 173

Keeping @Bill Gulley well spoken caveats in mind, the annual average of the Dow Jones from its 1929 pre-Depression zenith to today (sort of a worst case scenario) is a 4.42% annual return. That is a pretty good floor for a long hold that requires exactly zero personal effort. The SPDR Dow Jones ETF (DIA), initiated January 1998, has had an average annual return of 6.58%. Considering that 1998 was still in the era of irrational exuberance, and today is not, that seems like a conservative floor, still.

I don't think there is anything wrong with using 8% as an opportunity cost, nor is expecting that much from a long hold in an index ETF.