I would echo what @Ryan Wallace was saying (And I think what I mentioned in the hallway!). With this massive spike in appreciation seen in our market, appraiser were playing catch-up in 2020 and less so in 2021. This at least partially led to so many houses being sold over appraised value, because appraisers were working with data that is essentially 6-12 months old. City and county governments, by contrast, are working 1-2 years behind the curve. Since market values are up 40-60% in the last 2 years, wouldn't tax assessments follow suit (but at a lower $ amount)? And because we're not getting monthly assessment updates like we do market updates, it feels like a much harsher sting. The fact that my 4 properties appreciated around 40% as well leads me to believe that this is not a case-by-case basis, but rather a whole market getting a sharp correction upwards.
I often quote @Shannon Robnett in saying that Boise is now worth what it should be, implying that it was flying under the radar for so many years. For example, I bought a duplex in January 2020 for $330k in West Boise. It had been listed on the market for 45 days at $350k when I put an offer in (around Thanksgiving time, if I remember correctly) for $340k. Appraisal came back at $330k and that's where we closed. Fast forward to today, I've refinanced that place twice now (once in 2021 and again in 2022) so I have actual appraisal data for 3 years running. Not BPO or CMA. My 2021 appraisal was for $444k, and my 2021 came in at $578k. We did roughly $20k in rehab over that time. This isn't bragging (I just got lucky really), but rather to illustrate how crazy Boise has been for anyone reading from out of state.
Compare this to my tax assessments over the same period. In 2020, the same property was $281,100, then $378,700 for 2021, and now $443,300 for 2022. Relatively, that means the assessed value of my property was 85.1%, 85.3%, and 76.7% of my Market Appraised Value. This is a more insightful analysis than the fact that my assessed value increased by 57.7% in two years. "BOISE PROPERTY VALUES INCREASED AN AVERAGE 28.85% IN THE LAST 2 YEARS ALONE!!1!" the headline might read. But realistically, it's much more boring. Shannon's right, Boise is awesome and now people know it and are paying market value for it. History gives us some insight, but it's never the while picture. Today is part of history once it's tomorrow.
My prediction is that our assessed (and market) values will go up by a much smaller percentage next year, as higher interest rates cool things off, and Boise's prices are more in line with other equity markets like Denver, Portland, and Seattle. I think somewhere in the 5-10% range. We'll see. !remindme = 1 year
